A closer look at Chinander's defenses...by the numbers

[Ratt Mhule]

Here’s a tip for his defense: maybe play your best players with the game on the line. Mo Barry said in his postgame interview he was not in on the last NW drive and that he doesnt know why but he trusts his coaches decision. WTF! You have your best leader and best defensive player riding the pine with the game on the line? Inexcusable and indefensible. Not sure what personnel was on the field that drive but if MB was sitting im sure some of our other better defenders were sitting also. 

[Husker03]

Most of me just feels like we have to give Chin time, at the very least a few years just to be fair.  Maybe he’s legit bad, very well could be based on history and current failures, but it’s far too early to tell how he will fare here at Nebraska, which is really all that matters now. I have to pause and remember that, if we are being honest, we have unanimously hated the DC’s around here since Pelini was pretending he wasn’t really the DC and it was McBride before that that we judged favorably. Apparently it’s a difficult area to perform well in as evidenced by our revolving door of suiters. I’m ok giving Chin at least a year or two to develop continuity and hopefully bring in better fits. It’s disingenuous to expect him to take Diacos nightmare and also one of the most embarrassing defenses ever dress for the school, strip away the senior class, leave him with scraps and tell him to field a champion.  He may or may not be a great DC, but we can’t expect him to be Jesus. 

[Jeepy]

13 hours ago, HuskerNation1 said:

I am a big believer in looking at data when looking at bringing in new members of the coaching staff. When Diaco was hired in early 2017 I was pretty critical of the hire as the data did not paint a good picture of his track record outside of one standout season at Notre Dame in 2012. I was also skeptical of Frost's selection of Chinander given what the data showed, but I was willing to give Chinander the benefit of the doubt. In my mind having a dominant defense is more important to becoming a championship team than having a stellar offense. Here is a quick look at where the last 5 national champions finished in Team Defense.

 

2017-Alabama finished 1st

2016-Clemson finished 15th

2015-Alabama finished 3rd

2014-Ohio State finished 29th

2013-Florida State finished 7th

 

Now here are the finishes as an assistant in D1 football.

 

2010-Oregon finished 36th

2011-Oregon finished 96th

2012-Oregon finished 50th

2013-Went to NFL for one season

2014-Oregon finished 102nd

2015-Oregon finished 115th

2016-UCF finished 46th

2017-UCF finished 91st

2018-Nebraska is 70th

 

So the defensive philosophy Chin learned under at Oregon had one top 40 finish but spent most seasons in the bottom half of D1 defenses. His 3 seasons as a DC at UCF and Nebraska put him around 70th in D1.

 

I understand Frost has a long history with Chinander, but I think he needs to take a step back and assess whether his defensive background is what is needed to get Nebraska back to competing for championships.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense/sort/totalYards

 

Best post on this subject I've seen so far.  So, not much to add to it (thanks for all the data!).. just reposting it for your haters' viewing pleasure. 

[HuskerNation1]

15 minutes ago, Jeepy said:

 

Best post on this subject I've seen so far.  So, not much to add to it (thanks for all the data!).. just reposting it for your haters' viewing pleasure. 

 

Thanks Jeepy. The intent of this post was not to take a narrow look at our results this season and make a quick judgment but rather to look at the historical results that Chin has been a part of. Just as Riley had a long track record of being a .500 coach when Nebraska hired him, and he continued those average ways, I am fearful we are in for more of the same with Chin unless Frost gets engaged and partners with Chin to make adjustments. Oregon was a hot team when Chin was there and they should have had the talent needed for the system...I just dont see the current system being the long-term answer for this program. The offensive system has that positive history of success which I am excited about.

[Scratchtown]

FWIW. As was stated earlier. Playing defense is always tougher when your offense is an up tempo style. I used to love up tempo back when it was becoming new. However, procedures have been added for defenses to slow the pace down due to substitution and or "injury". 

 

I seriously look at Oregon. They have dramatically slowed down their pace even though they are still a spread offense, and the defense has improved all the way up to 37th nationally in total defense. Oregon, this season, under Cristobal have consistently ground out 15 play 6 minute drives that give their defense rest.

 

So while tempo can give the offense gaudy numbers, but it also destroys the defensive numbers. If you don't like shoot outs where you have to outscore opponents then you're never going to be happy with Frost. There hasn't been an actual up tempo style team that has had great defense.

 

Also. Tempo does NOT equal "Spread"

[gorp512]

Not exactly the same, but James Franklin really took off at PSU when he hired Joe Moorhead. He listened to a presentation about offense from Moorhead at a conference when he was head coach at Fordham, was inspired and offered him the job when it was open. 

 

This kind of acknowledging your own strengths and weaknesses and going outside your comfort zone to address them is the stuff the greatest coaches are made of. Loyalty is great, but so is proactive improvement. 

[Husker Richard]

Good lord, give it some time. This type of overreaction and demand for change is what has gotten us to this point. We need stability in a scheme and recruitment for that scheme before we can truly judge it. If you brought in the best DC in the nation and judged the output after less than 1 year, you still wouldn't be happy because it takes time for players to learn the scheme and to recruit the players to fit the scheme. TRUST THE PROCESS. 

[HuskerNation1]

1 hour ago, gorp512 said:

Not exactly the same, but James Franklin really took off at PSU when he hired Joe Moorhead. He listened to a presentation about offense from Moorhead at a conference when he was head coach at Fordham, was inspired and offered him the job when it was open. 

 

This kind of acknowledging your own strengths and weaknesses and going outside your comfort zone to address them is the stuff the greatest coaches are made of. Loyalty is great, but so is proactive improvement. 

 

Well said.

[BoNeyard]

All I know is the defense gave up a 99 yard drive in 2 minutes with no timeouts. The only change that needs to come from the procedural side of the defense this year is taking away all blackshirts jerseys and keeping them locked up until next year.

[Railroader]

It's hard to D&D (dispute and discredit) the informative posts by HuskerNation1, Mavric, Scratchtown, Jeepy, St. Paul Husker and lo country.   The situation in Orlando was a "Perfect Storm" scenario that required a talent/sharpness ("fast blinker") like MM at Qb.    Without that and an adequate Offensive Line, it all comes crashing down because the scores per possession really drops.

 

We'd likely still have Callahan (a great recruiter) as the N head coach if he would have replaced his DC sooner.    Great offenses and bad defense is not a good place to be in the BIG10.   Someone like Michigan or Wisconsin preventing our "kinda  high-octane" offense from taking the field spells long-term failure of the scheme.

 

 

[Red Five]

Since we have burned Tannor and Taylor’s redshirts, they should be out the a lot.  Tannor should be in on most 3rd and longs to edge rush. Taylor should be in the CB rotation with Lee/Jackson or be a slot corner in nickel.  Those guys are the future, they need all the reps they can get.

[dvdcrr]

16 hours ago, HuskerNation1 said:

I am a big believer in looking at data when looking at bringing in new members of the coaching staff. When Diaco was hired in early 2017 I was pretty critical of the hire as the data did not paint a good picture of his track record outside of one standout season at Notre Dame in 2012. I was also skeptical of Frost's selection of Chinander given what the data showed, but I was willing to give Chinander the benefit of the doubt. In my mind having a dominant defense is more important to becoming a championship team than having a stellar offense. Here is a quick look at where the last 5 national champions finished in Team Defense.

 

2017-Alabama finished 1st

2016-Clemson finished 15th

2015-Alabama finished 3rd

2014-Ohio State finished 29th

2013-Florida State finished 7th

 

Now here are the finishes as an assistant in D1 football.

 

2010-Oregon finished 36th

2011-Oregon finished 96th

2012-Oregon finished 50th

2013-Went to NFL for one season

2014-Oregon finished 102nd

2015-Oregon finished 115th

2016-UCF finished 46th

2017-UCF finished 91st

2018-Nebraska is 70th

 

So the defensive philosophy Chin learned under at Oregon had one top 40 finish but spent most seasons in the bottom half of D1 defenses. His 3 seasons as a DC at UCF and Nebraska put him around 70th in D1.

 

I understand Frost has a long history with Chinander, but I think he needs to take a step back and assess whether his defensive background is what is needed to get Nebraska back to competing for championships.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense/sort/totalYards

I dunno, his defense looked pretty good against Auburn last year, whom they were able to defeat in a 12-0 campaign.  Since you are into numbers I have a number for you:  1.  That is the number of hands a guy has that he put into the NFL.   That's what happens when you believe in your players.  That's what happens when you believe in your coach.  You should try it sometime.

[Making Chimichangas]

16 hours ago, HuskerNation1 said:

I am a big believer in looking at data when looking at bringing in new members of the coaching staff. When Diaco was hired in early 2017 I was pretty critical of the hire as the data did not paint a good picture of his track record outside of one standout season at Notre Dame in 2012. I was also skeptical of Frost's selection of Chinander given what the data showed, but I was willing to give Chinander the benefit of the doubt. In my mind having a dominant defense is more important to becoming a championship team than having a stellar offense. Here is a quick look at where the last 5 national champions finished in Team Defense.

 

2017-Alabama finished 1st

2016-Clemson finished 15th

2015-Alabama finished 3rd

2014-Ohio State finished 29th

2013-Florida State finished 7th

 

Now here are the finishes as an assistant in D1 football.

 

2010-Oregon finished 36th

2011-Oregon finished 96th

2012-Oregon finished 50th

2013-Went to NFL for one season

2014-Oregon finished 102nd

2015-Oregon finished 115th

2016-UCF finished 46th

2017-UCF finished 91st

2018-Nebraska is 70th

 

So the defensive philosophy Chin learned under at Oregon had one top 40 finish but spent most seasons in the bottom half of D1 defenses. His 3 seasons as a DC at UCF and Nebraska put him around 70th in D1.

 

I understand Frost has a long history with Chinander, but I think he needs to take a step back and assess whether his defensive background is what is needed to get Nebraska back to competing for championships.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense/sort/totalYards

 

Caveat: You could be correct about Chinander.  So if you just look at the numbers, without any context, it makes sense how one could come to the conclusion, after looking at multiple years of data, he is an average or worse DC.

 

However, college football has changed quite a bit even in the last 10 years. 

 

1. Rules keep getting changed to favor the offense.

2. Pass interference calls go against the defense probably 99.7% of the time.

3. Pretty much every team now runs some variation of uptempo spread.

4. Every defense, no matter how sound fundamentally, has holes which can be exploited.

5. The evolution of camps and coaching that players coming out of high school now receive could arguably be better than ever before.

6. With 85 scholarship limit, that means there are great players that end up at "lesser" schools.

 

So yeah while you might ultimately be right about Chinander, I think it is probably the case that we'll never see the kind of defensive dominance we did in the '90's.  Hell there are teams that put up 35+ points on Alabama's defense and they're the gold standard of talent, S&C, and depth.

[Moiraine]

8 minutes ago, Making Chimichangas said:

 

Caveat: You could be correct about Chinander.  So if you just look at the numbers, without any context, it makes sense how one could come to the conclusion, after looking at multiple years of data, he is an average or worse DC.

 

However, college football has changed quite a bit even in the last 10 years. 

 

1. Rules keep getting changed to favor the offense.

2. Pass interference calls go against the defense probably 99.7% of the time.

3. Pretty much every team now runs some variation of uptempo spread.

4. Every defense, no matter how sound fundamentally, has holes which can be exploited.

5. The evolution of camps and coaching that players coming out of high school now receive could arguably be better than ever before.

6. With 85 scholarship limit, that means there are great players that end up at "lesser" schools.

 

So yeah while you might ultimately be right about Chinander, I think it is probably the case that we'll never see the kind of defensive dominance we did in the '90's.  Hell there are teams that put up 35+ points on Alabama's defense and they're the gold standard of talent, S&C, and depth.

 

 

MC, 1-5 are all irrelevant here, because the post you’re quoting is how Chinander’s teams have ranked compared to all other teams. All of your points apply to all teams. They are all facing those circumstances. If you’re in 100th place, 99 teams did it better than you. Changes over time in football aren’t relevant because they also apply to those 99 teams.

 

If we were arguing something line yards per game and comparing Chinander to 90s Nebraska, then all of your points would apply.

[Making Chimichangas]

2 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

MC, 1-5 are all irrelevant, because the post you’re quoting is how Chinander’s teams have ranked against other teams. All of your points apply to all teams. They are all facing those circumstances.

 

If we were arguing something line yards per game and comparing Chinander to 90s Nebraska, then all of your points would apply.

 

I guess my overall point was/is: I think it is slightly unfair to just look at defensive rankings without any context.  Also, I think that average yards and points per game has been increasing over the years.  I (or someone) would have to do a stat analysis to see if that is true, but that's my hypothesis. 

 

For example, the #1 ranked defense in PPG in 2008 would be lower than what it is in 2018.

 

And the #1 defense in PPG would be lower in 1998 than it was in 2008.

 

Again, without doing any research, that is my hypothesis...