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A closer look at Chinander's defenses...by the numbers

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5 hours ago, lo country said:

I have said similar things.  Frost continues to talk about his scheme/system and he knows it works.  Is this based on the results at UCF?  I have no issue with his philosophy ie accountability, culture, commitment etc....But I wonder if his complete scheme that worked at UCF will work in the B1G.  Not calling for a whole sale change, but improvements on both sides to, in reality, "change to fit the B1G"........Yes UCF beat Auburn, but my co-workers argue it was an Auburn that "didn't want to be in the bowl", UCF had time to prepare for the "one big game" etc.....

 

One great season gives credibility, but not validity IMHO.  I'm all N for Frost.  Believe he needs time, but I also think he needs to make some tweaks on both sides of the ball.  I know talent will help, but talent isn't the only answer.

My thoughts as well. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, TheSker said:

Yeah.....it might get better.

 

Be honest. Did you think the season would get better after that close loss to Colorado?  Or worse?

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20 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Be honest. Did you think the season would get better after that close loss to Colorado?  Or worse?

Of course I thought our record would be better at this point after watching the Colorado game.

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23 hours ago, lo country said:

I have said similar things.  Frost continues to talk about his scheme/system and he knows it works.  Is this based on the results at UCF?  I have no issue with his philosophy ie accountability, culture, commitment etc....But I wonder if his complete scheme that worked at UCF will work in the B1G.  Not calling for a whole sale change, but improvements on both sides to, in reality, "change to fit the B1G"........Yes UCF beat Auburn, but my co-workers argue it was an Auburn that "didn't want to be in the bowl", UCF had time to prepare for the "one big game" etc.....

 

One great season gives credibility, but not validity IMHO.  I'm all N for Frost.  Believe he needs time, but I also think he needs to make some tweaks on both sides of the ball.  I know talent will help, but talent isn't the only answer.

 

I agree totally and the primary point of my post was to do a thorough look at the overall history of the defenses Frost and Chin were a part of.  Just as Diaco had one great season as a DC with Notre Dame, all his other seasons were meidocre or poor.  I do think Frost is a smart guy and has shown it on the offensive side, but I dont see his engagement in mastering the defensive side. His comment after the NW game that he doesnt call the plays on defense seemed like an admission he has delegated that side of the ball completely.  

 

Regarding our up tempo style being a reason the defense gives up so many points and yards, this would assume that opponents would have our defense on the field over 60 or 70% of the game. In the case of last weekends game there was a 14 second difference in time of possession, so our defense should not have been that tired. In half our games this year the time of possession has been pretty evenly split with the opponent (with 30 seconds) or favored Nebraska.  Moreover, if we had a stout defense, we would likely cause more 3 and outs that would turn the ball back over to our offense more quickly.

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1 hour ago, HuskerNation1 said:

Regarding our up tempo style being a reason the defense gives up so many points and yards, this would assume that opponents would have our defense on the field over 60 or 70% of the game. In the case of last weekends game there was a 14 second difference in time of possession, so our defense should not have been that tired. In half our games this year the time of possession has been pretty evenly split with the opponent (with 30 seconds) or favored Nebraska.

 

 

The bold is not entirely correct and it's not why people say the defense will get tired or give up more points. It's about the total number of plays by the defense. A fast tempo by one team increases the # of plays by both teams during a game because it makes time for more possessions on both sides. The normal tempo team will still do their regular thing, but their possessions will increase in number as compared to when they play another normal tempo team.

Nebraska has the 22nd most opponent plays per game. I bolded some other high tempo teams. I'm guessing maybe all of these are high tempo or play in high tempo conferences but I'm not sure. This is of course not solely due to tempo (a defense that often forces 3 and outs won't face as many plays), but it's definitely a factor.

 

130 Houston 95.4 96.3 96.0 96.5 94.7 80.6
129 Utah State 86.2 88.7 91.0 95.7 72.0 79.6
128 N Mex State 85.4 92.0 87.0 87.7 83.8 78.2
127 S Florida 84.4 87.0 73.0 87.0 82.7 77.6
126 San Jose St 83.8 82.7 70.0 89.0 80.3 82.2
125 Boston Col 83.5 81.3 74.0 77.0 90.0 73.1
124 Oklahoma 82.3 90.0 76.0 88.0 71.0 69.3
123 Temple 82.2 78.3 64.0 89.7 74.7 73.5
122 Mississippi 81.2 76.0 71.0 81.7 80.7 78.4
121 Illinois 80.4 77.7 83.0 80.0 81.0 75.5
120 Penn State 80.3 82.0 92.0 82.8 75.5 72.4
119 Old Dominion 80.0 77.7 75.0 82.0 78.5 76.1
118 Oklahoma St 79.8 71.7 79.0 82.8 74.0 76.6
117 N Illinois 79.6 78.0 59.0 72.3 85.0 76.2
116 New Mexico 79.0 81.0 85.0 91.0 76.0 65.5
115 Marshall 78.8 81.0 88.0 78.5 79.0 71.5
114 UCLA 78.5 79.0 77.0 82.3 74.7 78.9
113 Florida St 78.4 78.3 83.0 65.5 87.0 72.7
112 Akron 78.2 72.3 76.0 71.0 80.7 75.5
110 S Methodist 78.2 75.0 80.0 77.5 78.7 75.2
111 Central FL 78.2 75.7 82.0 74.0 84.5 77.6
109 Nebraska 78.2 80.7 89.0 76.7 79.7 69.7

 

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-plays-per-game

 

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11 hours ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

The bold is not entirely correct and it's not why people say the defense will get tired or give up more points. It's about the total number of plays by the defense. A fast tempo by one team increases the # of plays by both teams during a game because it makes time for more possessions on both sides. The normal tempo team will still do their regular thing, but their possessions will increase in number as compared to when they play another normal tempo team.

Nebraska has the 22nd most opponent plays per game. I bolded some other high tempo teams. I'm guessing maybe all of these are high tempo or play in high tempo conferences but I'm not sure. This is of course not solely due to tempo (a defense that often forces 3 and outs won't face as many plays), but it's definitely a factor.

 

130 Houston 95.4 96.3 96.0 96.5 94.7 80.6
129 Utah State 86.2 88.7 91.0 95.7 72.0 79.6
128 N Mex State 85.4 92.0 87.0 87.7 83.8 78.2
127 S Florida 84.4 87.0 73.0 87.0 82.7 77.6
126 San Jose St 83.8 82.7 70.0 89.0 80.3 82.2
125 Boston Col 83.5 81.3 74.0 77.0 90.0 73.1
124 Oklahoma 82.3 90.0 76.0 88.0 71.0 69.3
123 Temple 82.2 78.3 64.0 89.7 74.7 73.5
122 Mississippi 81.2 76.0 71.0 81.7 80.7 78.4
121 Illinois 80.4 77.7 83.0 80.0 81.0 75.5
120 Penn State 80.3 82.0 92.0 82.8 75.5 72.4
119 Old Dominion 80.0 77.7 75.0 82.0 78.5 76.1
118 Oklahoma St 79.8 71.7 79.0 82.8 74.0 76.6
117 N Illinois 79.6 78.0 59.0 72.3 85.0 76.2
116 New Mexico 79.0 81.0 85.0 91.0 76.0 65.5
115 Marshall 78.8 81.0 88.0 78.5 79.0 71.5
114 UCLA 78.5 79.0 77.0 82.3 74.7 78.9
113 Florida St 78.4 78.3 83.0 65.5 87.0 72.7
112 Akron 78.2 72.3 76.0 71.0 80.7 75.5
110 S Methodist 78.2 75.0 80.0 77.5 78.7 75.2
111 Central FL 78.2 75.7 82.0 74.0 84.5 77.6
109 Nebraska 78.2 80.7 89.0 76.7 79.7 69.7

 

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-plays-per-game

 

 

Thanks for sharing some additional data points. I did a quick spot check and am not sure there is direct correlation between tempo, total yards given up and opponents play total. I see some that look correlated but other examples that dont. For instance,  Clemson is 2nd in total defense but 40th in opponents plays per game.  Wisconsin is top 5 in opponents plays per game but 40s in total defense. It would be interesting to do some regression analysis. At the end of the day, I usually look at total defense/yards as the best measure of how robust the defense is. Scoring defense is good too but I am not sure if that includes points allowed when the other teams defense scores.  I think a strong defense keeps total yardage down regardless if the opponent runs up tempo or normal tempo.  Chin and the Nebraska defense is below average now in many categories and I am not sure with better talent if they would ever become dominant. 

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On 10/15/2018 at 3:40 PM, Undone said:


I would say that there's a very good argument that says that total yardage is much, much more important than points allowed. It shows more objectively which team is winning downs during the course of the season.

I am more on the side that the fewer points you give up, the more games you win.  So I feel that is probably the most important.

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Y'all, the problem with making statistical arguments for coaches is that football is a team sport with many different factors. TOP for the offense, quality of the players, strength of opponents can all make a good DC look bad and vice versa. 

 

This is why when evaluating coaches, I often look to the fans of teams the coach has worked for. They know the opponents relative strength, the tempo of the offense, how good the recruits were and how developed they have become as players. When Charlie Strong left UF, a Gator friend of mine said, "He's been looking for HC jobs for years and no one wants him. And we're not sad to see him go." After hearing that, I knew that he was never going to be a hugely successful HC.

 

Y'all know me, I'm a reasonable guy. I don't come here to flame, I come here b/c I like you guys. Here's what I know: Every UCF fan I know was sad about every coach leaving the program except one. I don't know any serious fan that wasn't happy about Chins leaving. 

 

We know the opponents, the tempo, and the development of recruits. And we all think that he's a mediocre coach at best. I mean, how bad do you have to be for the fans of an undefeated team to be calling for your head. Our guys couldn't tackle, the schemes were inane, and most of us consider Shaquem Griffin the reason for any successes last year.

 

If I were you, I would start beating the drum to remove him ASAP. Giving him time to prove himself is reasonable. It's also the wrong move (IMO).

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30 minutes ago, ATS Knight said:

You are positing that all statistical arguments for or against coaches are perfect because...reasons?

 

 

Well, your statement was wrong. And now you are reading a lot (incorrectly) into one word. It was supposed to be a joke, but "football is a team sport with many different factors" is not a valid reason to not use statistics.

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5 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

Well, your statement was wrong.

 

You don't seem to lack confidence.

 

5 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

And now you are reading a lot (incorrectly) into one word.

 

Well, it wasn't just one word. There was an edited quote attached. 

And you'll notice that my post was posed as a question, not a definitive statement.

 

5 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

It was supposed to be a joke, but "football is a team sport with many different factors" is not a valid reason to not use statistics.

 

I wasn't saying that we shouldn't use statistics. I was merely stating that I believed statistical arguments were imperfect and those problems are exacerbated in team sports such as college football that have a lot of variables affecting the outcome.

 

I'm a big fan of statistics, but I could utilize statistics to show you how a coach is the worst in the league and holding his team back or how a coach is the best in the league and would have a Sabanesque career if he were in a similar situation.

 

My argument is that you should look for context for the statistics. Fans of previous stops in the coaches career is a convenient way to provide some context. 

 

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7 minutes ago, ATS Knight said:

 

You don't seem to lack confidence.

 

 

Well, it wasn't just one word. There was an edited quote attached. 

And you'll notice that my post was posed as a question, not a definitive statement.

 

 

I wasn't saying that we shouldn't use statistics. I was merely stating that I believed statistical arguments were imperfect and those problems are exacerbated in team sports such as college football that have a lot of variables affecting the outcome.

 

I'm a big fan of statistics, but I could utilize statistics to show you how a coach is the worst in the league and holding his team back or how a coach is the best in the league and would have a Sabanesque career if he were in a similar situation.

 

My argument is that you should look for context for the statistics. Fans of previous stops in the coaches career is a convenient way to provide some context. 

 

 

Gotcha on the statistics.
 

But I think fans say a lot of dumb things, especially about defense. And I've seen UCF fans say a lot of dumb things I disagree with about UCF's defense last year, and I watched at least half of UCF's games. I also don't trust that a high % of UCF fans are big college football fans, so they might not have a good perspective. Chinander obviously needs to improve a lot next season and the season after that and be evaluated, but I'm fine with giving him that time. This is his 3rd year as a defensive coordinator.

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