krc1995 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 57 minutes ago, huKSer said: I always thought that teams that did not make a bowl game should get X additional spring practice days. that's almost logical Quote Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 I'll update later. As it stands right now I believe there are 12 spots left for 25 1 win to go teams + Nebraska. I've counted at least 4 head to heads for these teams, so there are actually 8 spots for 21 teams + Nebraska. So 14 out of 21 teams need to go 0-2. 4 of those teams are guaranteed to have at least 1 loss in the head to heads. There are also 5 4-6 teams that are not already included as 1 win to go teams due to APR. So we need them not to go 2-0. 2 Quote Link to comment
Ulty Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 11 hours ago, Michiganball said: A 5 win Nebraska would be a lot more interesting nationally then watching North-East Dakota State Christian play with 6 wins. Not only is it a known brand, but the whole story with Frost and winning 5 of the 6 remaining games would be far more compelling. There is no way North-East Dakota State Christian reaches 6 wins this year. Remove them from the list. 1 Quote Link to comment
Hunter94 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 just winning the last 2 games is enuf..........notice for next year Quote Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 Not bothering with the 2 wins needed teams this time. As of Nov. 10 there are 90 teams that need between 0 and 1 more wins to be bowl eligible or get to 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR. If we consider 5 win teams ahead of us in APR as bowl eligible: 66 of the 90 are bowl eligible now. 24 are 1 win away. We need 13 of the 24 teams to go 0-2 and none of the 5 teams who need 2 wins to go 2-0 (or some combination). Unfortunately I counted 4 head to heads within this group, which means 4 of the 24 are guaranteed to not go 0-2. In case anyone's curious, these are the teams ahead of us in APR that still matter: 1 Quote Link to comment
4skers89 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 A smart actuary could calculate the probability of us making a bowl game by using ESPN's matchup predictor or something like that for the remaining games for both us and the other contenders. I know part of the calculation would be that Nebraska needs to beat MSU (30% chance) and Iowa (15% chance) and if I remember my basic probability our chances of that are 4.5%. Although, if we beat MSU then our chance to beat Iowa would probably go up. Quote Link to comment
runningblind Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, 4skers89 said: A smart actuary could calculate the probability of us making a bowl game by using ESPN's matchup predictor or something like that for the remaining games for both us and the other contenders. I know part of the calculation would be that Nebraska needs to beat MSU (30% chance) and Iowa (15% chance) and if I remember my basic probability our chances of that are 4.5%. Although, if we beat MSU then our chance to beat Iowa would probably go up. The matchup predictor is based mostly off of record. Using the eyeball test, Nebraska is trending up and Iowa is trending down. I would put that game as at least 50-50 because Iowa's offense is pitiful. MSU has a pretty bad offense also, and with that game in Lincoln I would put that at a minimum of 50-50 also. So the chance of 5-7 is much better than 5%. However, since you are talking bowls, the chance of that is very low, as even if the team finishes 5-7, there are several schools with better APR's than us this year I believe. Quote Link to comment
macroboy Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 If we finish 5-7 and there are bowl slots left I know APR is supposedly the rule but..... the NCAA is dirty AF and all about $. Because we travel so well, and bc/ it would be better TV I could see us getting an invite regardless of 'the rules.' 1 Quote Link to comment
4skers89 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, runningblind said: However, since you are talking bowls, the chance of that is very low, as even if the team finishes 5-7, there are several schools with better APR's than us this year I believe. So an actuary could calculate the probability of the schools with better APRs getting to 5 wins combined with our odds of winning out combined with other teams reaching 6 wins and also consider the number of bowl spots available to calculate an overall chance of us going bowling. 50-50 against both MSU and Iowa? That doesn't seem like you. Are you off the Koolaid? 1 Quote Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 28 minutes ago, runningblind said: However, since you are talking bowls, the chance of that is very low, as even if the team finishes 5-7, there are several schools with better APR's than us this year I believe. You could scroll up to see the list of those teams 2 posts before yours :p 1 Quote Link to comment
runningblind Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 31 minutes ago, 4skers89 said: So an actuary could calculate the probability of the schools with better APRs getting to 5 wins combined with our odds of winning out combined with other teams reaching 6 wins and also consider the number of bowl spots available to calculate an overall chance of us going bowling. 50-50 against both MSU and Iowa? That doesn't seem like you. Are you off the Koolaid? Haha! Internally I really think these are 2 W's, and if we win the turnover battle I see a couple 2-3 td wins. A koolaid volcano would erupt for the offseason then. I was just trying out pragmatism with the 50/50 talk...I didn't like it. 22 minutes ago, Moiraine said: You could scroll up to see the list of those teams 2 posts before yours :p Haha, thanks for the assist! I will have to try scrolling before posting. Quote Link to comment
Atbone95 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 46 minutes ago, macroboy said: If we finish 5-7 and there are bowl slots left I know APR is supposedly the rule but..... the NCAA is dirty AF and all about $. Because we travel so well, and bc/ it would be better TV I could see us getting an invite regardless of 'the rules.' Why is everyone so convinced that even if there is a perfect storm, the NCAA somehow is going to break the rules for us? D-e-l-u-s-i-o-n-a-l 1 Quote Link to comment
macroboy Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 16 minutes ago, Atbone95 said: Why is everyone so convinced that even if there is a perfect storm, the NCAA somehow is going to break the rules for us? D-e-l-u-s-i-o-n-a-l Pretty sure I explained why I could see it happen. 1 Quote Link to comment
GamingGlen Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 16 minutes ago, Atbone95 said: Why is everyone so convinced that even if there is a perfect storm, the NCAA somehow is going to break the rules for us? D-e-l-u-s-i-o-n-a-l Isn't that the definition of fandom? 1 Quote Link to comment
Atbone95 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 25 minutes ago, macroboy said: Pretty sure I explained why I could see it happen. The rules are the rules. Stop. You're hurting yourself Quote Link to comment
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.