Statistical Evidence of Biased Officiating Against Nebraska?

[VectorVictor]

I know there’s been a lot of chatter in the past few weeks about officiating and whether Nebraska has gotten a fair shake from the B1G officials.

 

Well, instead of just making an assumption from casual observation (read: like I and many others have) one way or another...a Redditor by the name of u/themrincredible put 20+ hours of work into the underlying statistical analysis necessary to determine the answer to the question...and the answer is...well...read the post for yourself:

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/Huskers/comments/9s9csd/the_fix_is_in_well_you_be_the_judge/?st=JNU703KK&sh=62ca5d84

 

BTW, I’ll warn folks: it’s long, it’s through, and it involves math, charts, data tables, and the like. Not for the faint of heart, posters with ADD, or posters who harbor aversions to data and factual information. 

 

—

 

As for the conclusions reached, it’s pretty much mathematical collaboration to what many have seen with your eyeballs.

[mwj98]

Ok. The for the warning about how much data was there. I read most of it. I'm more.convinced now. The whole ”2 years without a holding penalty on a pass play” sealed it for me. 

[STL Husker]

I still think the 2 year holding stat has much more to do with an anemic pass rush than any officiating bias.  When you don't challenge the offensive line, there's no reason to hold.  You also pass less when you have a lead.

[Moiraine]

I didn’t see any statistical evidence in that post. 

[cheekygeek]

57 minutes ago, STL Husker said:

I still think the 2 year holding stat has much more to do with an anemic pass rush than any officiating bias.  When you don't challenge the offensive line, there's no reason to hold.  You also pass less when you have a lead.

Chicken/Egg dilemma. Your pass rush is more likely to be anemic if the opposing team NEVER gets called for holding. Are you saying you've never SEEN uncalled holding on NU opponents over the past 2 years???

[Moiraine]

6 minutes ago, cheekygeek said:

Are you saying you've never SEEN uncalled holding on NU opponents over the past 2 years???

He didn't say that, so he's not saying that.

[Enhance]

This topic (sans any actual figures) was mentioned in another thread recently but I believe the same thing I said there holds true here: it's difficult to draw a succinct conclusion. Is Nebraska unfairly targeted by referees because of their tendencies, does Nebraska simply commit more penalties or is the talent (or lack there of) responsible?

 

I tend to believe it's some combination of all three. Nebraska has some level of a reputation by now, and although referees are supposed to approach each game without bias, it's probably in the back of their minds somewhere. I also think Nebraska has tended to commit a lot of penalties. I also believe Nebraska's lack of talent in recent years (specifically on the defensive line) is why they don't get more calls to go their way i.e. holding.

[STL Husker]

9 minutes ago, cheekygeek said:

Chicken/Egg dilemma. Your pass rush is more likely to be anemic if the opposing team NEVER gets called for holding. Are you saying you've never SEEN uncalled holding on NU opponents over the past 2 years???

I won't say I've never seen a hold, but this d-line performance is more typical.

[onlyHskrfaninIL]

bo pelini effect i say.  refs are human.  they view nebraska very poorly after years of abuse from crazy bo.

[cheekygeek]

50 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

He didn't say that, so he's not saying that.

 

Then the problem of holding not being called for 2 years is not "mostly" due to an anemic pass rush. It's due to holds not being called.

[Nebfanatic]

So your telling me Gifford getting his facemask held for an entire play going uncalled is because Gifford isn't talented enough? The talent isn't an issue when there are holds going uncalled that are as plain as day to anyone watching. Happened multiple times in the Purdue game.

[Moiraine]

8 minutes ago, cheekygeek said:

 

Then the problem of holding not being called for 2 years is not "mostly" due to an anemic pass rush. It's due to holds not being called.

 

 

Which doesn’t necessarily have anything to do with bias. The Big Ten doesn’t call holding very often. And the analysis didn’t do any statistical tests. 

[huskerfan333157]

1 hour ago, cheekygeek said:

Chicken/Egg dilemma. Your pass rush is more likely to be anemic if the opposing team NEVER gets called for holding. Are you saying you've never SEEN uncalled holding on NU opponents over the past 2 years???

I've also seen uncalled holdings on us as well, you see it every game.  Here's the difference: our pass rush is horrible, one of the worst in the big 10 so we're not going to get the benefit of those calls.  But keep blaming the refs because of our pass rush being bad.  Blaming the refs for our bad defense seems to be how things are done around here lately.

[Moiraine]

7 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

So your telling me Gifford getting his facemask held for an entire play going uncalled is because Gifford isn't talented enough? The talent isn't an issue when there are holds going uncalled that are as plain as day to anyone watching. Happened multiple times in the Purdue game.

 

 

Happens to every team. You can’t prove bias by showing the number of calls not called without showing how often it happens to other teams. One non call proves literally nothing. 

[huskerfan333157]

8 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

So your telling me Gifford getting his facemask held for an entire play going uncalled is because Gifford isn't talented enough? The talent isn't an issue when there are holds going uncalled that are as plain as day to anyone watching. Happened multiple times in the Purdue game.

Yet you refuse to mention how we get away with holding, only mention it when it goes against us but not for us.