2018 Blackshirts vs. 2017 Blackshirts

[ColoradoHusk]

2 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

It's not too much to ask the new coaching staff to do better with the same people than the previous coaching staff. That's pretty much the big idea. 

 

I think we've seen it so far. Scheme you can control. Speed you can't. But most of all you need the change of attitude, and I'd really like to see it for the next three games.

 

 

 

That is a fair statement.  In some areas (turnovers, sacks, and TFL's)  we have seen improvement in the defense.  In some areas, not so much.  I think we have seen effort improve, along with the trust in the scheme (although there are still busts).  I am still concerned about teams running right at NU.  I think that's a combination of talent upfront and scheme overall.

[Husker in WI]

3 minutes ago, ColoradoHusk said:

 

That is a fair statement.  In some areas (turnovers, sacks, and TFL's)  we have seen improvement in the defense.  In some areas, not so much.  I think we have seen effort improve, along with the trust in the scheme (although there are still busts).  I am still concerned about teams running right at NU.  I think that's a combination of talent upfront and scheme overall.

 

That's still my biggest concern as well - I think a lot of the big runs we've given up are on the LBs and Safeties, so hopefully scheme familiarity and getting more athletes helps there. Iowa/Michigan State still worry me, we haven't shown we can stop the run even if we sell out to do so. I think both are winnable, but I'm not convinced we can consistently stop them.

[ColoradoHusk]

13 minutes ago, Husker in WI said:

 

That's still my biggest concern as well - I think a lot of the big runs we've given up are on the LBs and Safeties, so hopefully scheme familiarity and getting more athletes helps there. Iowa/Michigan State still worry me, we haven't shown we can stop the run even if we sell out to do so. I think both are winnable, but I'm not convinced we can consistently stop them.

Dedrick Young has improved, but he is still not great on run fits.  NU needs to get Damion Daniels in better shape for next season, so he can play more.  He's the best guy at plugging up the middle that NU has.

[brophog]

4 hours ago, ColoradoHusk said:

With this defense I think yards per play, takeaways, and points per opponent possession, are a better measure than overall yards against and total scoring defense. I’m not saying the 2018 D is much better (if at all) but with Frost’s offense vs. Riley’s offense not all comparisons are valid. 

 

In any defense (and regardless of offense), yards per play and points per possession are better....they're just better metrics for measuring efficiency, which is the key area in any alternate possession game.

 

 

[ColoradoHusk]

4 minutes ago, brophog said:

 

In any defense (and regardless of offense), yards per play and points per possession are better....they're just better metrics for measuring efficiency, which is the key area in any alternate possession game.

 

 

I agree, but some fans prefer to look at more traditional statistics to evaluate the team (I am not one of them).

[Moiraine]

I’m still giving a mulligan for this season, and as such I’m happy to look at improvement from game 1 to game 12 rather than dwell on crappy performance overall, and in most categories there is improvement, a lot in some cases.

 

I fully believe we will continue that thru the next season and it will result in a lot more wins.

[4skers89]

6 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

I’m still giving a mulligan for this season, and as such I’m happy to look at improvement from game 1 to game 12 rather than dwell on crappy performance overall, and in most categories there is improvement, a lot in some cases.

It’s difficult to dismiss the crappy performances earlier in the season because of the improvement since then.  Improvement had to happen since they couldn’t have been much worse. It’s a shame because I don’t think the season had to start the way it did if the players had taken the coaching more seriously and put in the effort. Several times the coaches were asked why the team has improved in certain areas and the answer is always something like the players are taking a drill in practice more seriously.  Also, there were a lot of bonehead mistakes that coaches preached against but apparently couldn’t be learned until it cost a game. If the team can have some success and win the remaining games I think some players will look back with regret and realize things could have been much better. Life lesson learned I hope.

[Moiraine]

4 minutes ago, 4skers89 said:

It’s difficult to dismiss the crappy performances earlier in the season because of the improvement since then.  Improvement had to happen since they couldn’t have been much worse. It’s a shame because I don’t think the season had to start the way it did if the players had taken the coaching more seriously and put in the effort. Several times the coaches were asked why the team has improved in certain areas and the answer is always something like the players are taking a drill in practice more seriously.  Also, there were a lot of bonehead mistakes that coaches preached against but apparently couldn’t be learned until it cost a game. If the team can have some success and win the remaining games I think some players will look back with regret and realize things could have been much better. Life lesson learned I hope.

 

 

I’m guessing if we win a lot of games next season I’ll look back a year from now and not care that it took 11 months instead of 6 for things to really start turning around. What I’ll care about is that it got better.

[blinky]

Defensive stats showing total yards given up are a little skewed. The defense is on pace to play about 80 more snaps than last year. 

Also, I would suggest that there has been significant improvement over the course of the year, largely because a) Lamar Jackson has improved, and b) the players are more used to the scheme. We should continue to see improvement next year. 

[broganreynik]

7 hours ago, ColoradoHusk said:

With this defense I think yards per play, takeaways, and points per opponent possession, are a better measure than overall yards against and total scoring defense. I’m not saying the 2018 D is much better (if at all) but with Frost’s offense vs. Riley’s offense not all comparisons are valid. 

 

In the scheme of things, those stats do tell whether the defense is getting better, which they are. But PPG is really all that truly matters at the end of the day. So I can see why someone would compare based on that.

[ColoradoHusk]

2 hours ago, broganreynik said:

 

In the scheme of things, those stats do tell whether the defense is getting better, which they are. But PPG is really all that truly matters at the end of the day. So I can see why someone would compare based on that.

Yes, points per game is the ultimate stat the matters in wins and losses, but it’s still not the best measure of a defense. Opponent scores via turnovers and special teams count against the defense, when the defense has no control over those at all. Also, a defense can’t help it when the offense gives the opponent a short field, resulting in a relatively easy score. There has to be better statistics, even when looking at points given up by the defense. 

[Mavric]

11 hours ago, The Dude said:

2017 - 436 yards per game (102nd)

2018 - 443 yards per game (105th)

 

Doesn't account for relative strength of offenses faced or pace of play.

 

Last year the offenses we played averaged 5.37 yards per play for the year, which is roughly the same as the #70 offense in the country.  This year the offenses we've faced are averaging 5.70 yards per play which is about #48.  Also, last year we faced 69.7 plays per game.  This year we are seeing 76.9 plays per game.  Just that difference is nearly 40 yards per game.  Obviously the defense's ability to get off the field plays a part in that but it's not totally the defense's fault either.

 

But the best way to compare is looking at yards per play allowed and compare that to what our opponents did against other teams.  Last year our opponents averaged 6.3 yards per play against us which is 0.93 yards per play more than they got against everyone else.  This year they are getting 5.9 yards per play against us - a decrease of 0.4 ypp - but that is only 0.20 yards per play more than they got against other teams which is 0.73 yards per play better than it was last year.  

 

For comparision, the vaunted 2007 defense allowed 0.47 yards more to our opponents than they got against others.  Last year it was basically twice that.  We've cut that discrepancy by over 80% this year, which seems like a significant improvement.  

 

Not that it doesn't need to get better.  But I think there's been progress.

 

Here are the stats for as far back as the site I pulled them from goes. Negative (in parenthesis) is better.

 

YEAR - YPP - OYPP - DIFF
2003 - 4.3 - 5.15 -(0.85)

2004 - 5.0 - 4.91 - 0.09
2005 - 4.6 - 4.85 -(0.25)
2006 - 5.2 - 5.38 -(0.18)
2007 - 6.0 - 5.53 - 0.47

2008 - 5.4 - 5.41 -(0.01)
2009 - 3.9 - 5.21 -(1.31)
2010 - 4.5 - 5.29 -(0.79)
2011 - 5.2 - 5.51 -(0.31)
2012 - 5.3 - 5.48 -(0.18)
2013 - 4.9 - 5.36 -(0.46)
2014 - 5.2 - 5.53 -(0.33)

2015 - 5.7 - 5.28 - 0.42
2016 - 5.4 - 5.26 - 0.14

2017 - 6.3 - 5.37 - 0.93

 

2018 - 5.9 - 5.70 - 0.20

[ColoradoHusk]

3 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

Doesn't account for relative strength of offenses faced or pace of play.

 

Last year the offenses we played averaged 5.37 yards per play for the year, which is roughly the same as the #70 offense in the country.  This year the offenses we've faced are averaging 5.70 yards per play which is about #48.  Also, last year we faced 69.7 plays per game.  This year we are seeing 76.9 plays per game.  Just that difference is nearly 40 yards per game.  Obviously the defense's ability to get off the field plays a part in that but it's not totally the defense's fault either.

 

But the best way to compare is looking at yards per play allowed and compare that to what our opponents did against other teams.  Last year our opponents averaged 6.3 yards per play against us which is 0.93 yards per play more than they got against everyone else.  This year they are getting 5.9 yards per play against us - a decrease of 0.4 ypp - but that is only 0.20 yards per play more than they got against other teams which is 0.73 yards per play better than it was last year.  

 

For comparision, the vaunted 2007 defense allowed 0.47 yards more to our opponents than they got against others.  Last year it was basically twice that.  We've cut that discrepancy by over 80% this year, which seems like a significant improvement.  

 

Not that it doesn't need to get better.  But I think there's been progress.

 

Here are the stats for as far back as the site I pulled them from goes:

 

YEAR - YPP - OYPP - DIFF
2003 - 4.3 - 5.15 -(0.85)

2004 - 5.0 - 4.91 - 0.09
2005 - 4.6 - 4.85 -(0.25)
2006 - 5.2 - 5.38 -(0.18)
2007 - 6.0 - 5.53 - 0.47

2008 - 5.4 - 5.41 -(0.01)
2009 - 3.9 - 5.21 -(1.31)
2010 - 4.5 - 5.29 -(0.79)
2011 - 5.2 - 5.51 -(0.31)
2012 - 5.3 - 5.48 -(0.18)
2013 - 4.9 - 5.36 -(0.46)
2014 - 5.2 - 5.53 -(0.33)

2015 - 5.7 - 5.28 - 0.42
2016 - 5.4 - 5.26 - 0.14

2017 - 6.3 - 5.37 - 0.93

 

2018 - 5.9 - 5.70 - 0.20

There you go, using facts and reasoning. 

[Moiraine]

Before the Minnesota game we were 106th in Takeaways. We're 85th now. That's a huge jump in 3 weeks.

[jsneb83]

I remember people were saying the defense was going to struggle again this year. But then when that actually happened, they blame it on the coaches