2018 Blackshirts vs. 2017 Blackshirts

[Saunders]

15 hours ago, Mavric said:

 

Doesn't account for relative strength of offenses faced or pace of play.

 

Last year the offenses we played averaged 5.37 yards per play for the year, which is roughly the same as the #70 offense in the country.  This year the offenses we've faced are averaging 5.70 yards per play which is about #48.  Also, last year we faced 69.7 plays per game.  This year we are seeing 76.9 plays per game.  Just that difference is nearly 40 yards per game.  Obviously the defense's ability to get off the field plays a part in that but it's not totally the defense's fault either.

 

But the best way to compare is looking at yards per play allowed and compare that to what our opponents did against other teams.  Last year our opponents averaged 6.3 yards per play against us which is 0.93 yards per play more than they got against everyone else.  This year they are getting 5.9 yards per play against us - a decrease of 0.4 ypp - but that is only 0.20 yards per play more than they got against other teams which is 0.73 yards per play better than it was last year.  

 

For comparision, the vaunted 2007 defense allowed 0.47 yards more to our opponents than they got against others.  Last year it was basically twice that.  We've cut that discrepancy by over 80% this year, which seems like a significant improvement.  

 

Not that it doesn't need to get better.  But I think there's been progress.

 

Here are the stats for as far back as the site I pulled them from goes. Negative (in parenthesis) is better.

 

YEAR - YPP - OYPP - DIFF
2003 - 4.3 - 5.15 -(0.85)

2004 - 5.0 - 4.91 - 0.09
2005 - 4.6 - 4.85 -(0.25)
2006 - 5.2 - 5.38 -(0.18)
2007 - 6.0 - 5.53 - 0.47

2008 - 5.4 - 5.41 -(0.01)
2009 - 3.9 - 5.21 -(1.31)
2010 - 4.5 - 5.29 -(0.79)
2011 - 5.2 - 5.51 -(0.31)
2012 - 5.3 - 5.48 -(0.18)
2013 - 4.9 - 5.36 -(0.46)
2014 - 5.2 - 5.53 -(0.33)

2015 - 5.7 - 5.28 - 0.42
2016 - 5.4 - 5.26 - 0.14

2017 - 6.3 - 5.37 - 0.93

 

2018 - 5.9 - 5.70 - 0.20

I know we talk about it alot, but that 2009 defense was God Tier.

[KingBlank]

2 hours ago, Mavric said:

 

One defense gives up 500 yards of offense but only allows 21 points because the other team fumbles twice in the red zone and misses a field goal.

 

Another defense gives up 200 yards of offense but allows 31 points because their offense turned it over deep in their own territory and the special teams gave up two long kick returns.

 

Which team has the better defense?

In that highly unlikely scenario the conclusion would be hard to come too.  In your second scenario the defense only gave up 17, if I'm assuming the final score was 31. 

[RedDenver]

4 hours ago, KingBlank said:

No total scoring defense is the best measure because that's how many points they score to beat you.  There is no other "best" measure around the actual fact of the scoring of the other teams offense. 

Easily disproved with an example:

Two teams both gave up 20 points per game. Team A played the 12 best offenses in college football that year. Team B played the 12 worst offenses. It's not even a question which defense was better even though they gave up the same number of points.

[Mavric]

20 minutes ago, KingBlank said:

In that highly unlikely scenario the conclusion would be hard to come too.  In your second scenario the defense only gave up 17, if I'm assuming the final score was 31. 

 

No, not long kick returns for TDs.  Just long kick returns that gave the offense very good field position.

[Moiraine]

4 hours ago, 4skers89 said:

It seems like they are improving but Minny and BC don’t make for good measurement.  Having good games against Iowa and MSU (both currently ranked) would be confirmation.

I don't disagree with you but when you're comparing rankings of the teams, keep in mind that in the early weeks when compared to the other teams, we had played 1 less pansy due to ours getting rescheduled.

[Jason Sitoke]

5 hours ago, KingBlank said:

28

Incorrect.  But if you'd have shown your work, you could've gotten partial credit.

[Saunders]

2 hours ago, KingBlank said:

In that highly unlikely scenario the conclusion would be hard to come too.  In your second scenario the defense only gave up 17, if I'm assuming the final score was 31. 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/292900158

[beorach]

I took a post I wrote from November 13th of 2017 and added the current percentiles to it in parentheses below:

 

"Here are the percentile rankings for the Cornhuskers relative to stats from only the conference games played between FBS opponents to date this season:

 

Pass D stats
completions per game	78 (11)
percentage	36 (56)
yards per attempt	71 (42)
touchdowns per game	83 (47)
rating	66 (51)
yards per game	88 (8)
Pass O stats
completions per game	75 (78)
percentage	61 (84)
yards per attempt	59 (64)
touchdowns per game	66 (44)
rating	59 (65)
yards per game	78 (75)
Rush D stats
yards per carry	7 (17)
touchdowns per game	10 (6)
yards per game	11 (27)
Rush O stats
yards per carry	14 (80)
touchdowns per game	9 (77)
yards per game	12 (71)
Scoring D stats
touchdowns per game	17 (12)
points per game	22 (9)
Scoring O stats
touchdowns per game	24 (61)
points per game	24 (57)
Total D stats
yards per play	30 (19)
yards per game	46 (8)
plays per game	75 (15)
Total O stats
yards per play	48 (80)
yards per game	40 (87)
plays per game	34 (70)
Turnover Margin stats
fumbles gained per game	4 (30)
interceptions gained per game	51 (50)
turnovers gained per game	14 (37)
fumbles lost per game	83 (34)
interceptions lost per game	36 (65)
turnovers lost per game	62 (51)
turnover margin per game	30 (41)
Average % for all these stats	43 (47)"

 

p.s. - These were the final stats from last season:

 

Pass D stats
completions per game	32
percentage	12
yards per attempt	51
touchdowns per game	50
rating	35
yards per game	56
Pass O stats
completions per game	77
percentage	48
yards per attempt	50
touchdowns per game	69
rating	45
yards per game	78
Rush D stats
yards per carry	6
touchdowns per game	6
yards per game	16
Rush O stats
yards per carry	16
touchdowns per game	20
yards per game	12
Scoring D stats
touchdowns per game	10
points per game	12
Scoring O stats
touchdowns per game	40
points per game	39
Total D stats
yards per play	18
yards per game	27
plays per game	58
Total O stats
yards per play	44
yards per game	42
plays per game	43
Turnover Margin stats
fumbles gained per game	7
interceptions gained per game	37
turnovers gained per game	13
fumbles lost per game	96
interceptions lost per game	5
turnovers lost per game	42
turnover margin per game	19
Average % for all these stats	35

 

Edited November 8, 2018 by beorach
added more figures

[STL Husker]

We forced Ohio St. to punt.  More than once!  What more do we need to say?

[KingBlank]

2 hours ago, Jason Sitoke said:

Incorrect.  But if you'd have shown your work, you could've gotten partial credit.

Pretty funny there bud.  Unfortunately the team that holds the other team to less points actually wins the football game.  I more the anyone point to statistics as the basis for judgement, points per play is metric used by fan bases to artificially inflate their own opinions of how good a defense is.  Also if the score was 29-28?  Who wins?

[Jason Sitoke]

12 minutes ago, KingBlank said:

Pretty funny there bud.  Unfortunately the team that holds the other team to less points actually wins the football game.  I more the anyone point to statistics as the basis for judgement, points per play is metric used by fan bases to artificially inflate their own opinions of how good a defense is.  Also if the score was 29-28?  Who wins?

Thanks bud.  So the ultimate result is all that matters.  There is no other metric that could possibly have value in characterizing performance. Trent Dilfer is a better quarterback than Dan Marino because ... Super Bowls.  Any other statistic or quantitative judgement in between is meaningless because .... scoreboard.

[Moiraine]

49 minutes ago, KingBlank said:

Also if the score was 29-28?  Who wins?

 

 

This is actually an argument against your point. You keep ignoring the effects of offense and special teams on the game and act as though defense happens in a vacuum.

 

The only thing that matters is points scored vs. points against in a particular game, and if your offense plays fast your defense is going to face more series by the opposing teams, and will tend toward allowing more points, but that doesn’t mean they are a worse defense than one that allows less points while playing with a plodding offense that scores few points per game. 

[Moiraine]

36 minutes ago, Jason Sitoke said:

Thanks bud.  So the ultimate result is all that matters.  There is no other metric that could possibly have value in characterizing performance. Trent Dilfer is a better quarterback than Dan Marino because ... Super Bowls.  Any other statistic or quantitative judgement in between is meaningless because .... scoreboard.

 

 

The funny thing is he hasn’t even been talking about the scoreboard until now. He’s only been talking about points against. As if having a fast offense that increases the # of series by 20% (and scores more) automatically means the defense is worse if they allow more points.

[Spooky Tooth]

15 hours ago, KingBlank said:

28

 

 

 

 

[knapplc]

I don't know about you guys, but I think this is a good thing.