2018 Blackshirts vs. 2017 Blackshirts

[Mavric]

16 minutes ago, knapplc said:

I don't know about you guys, but I think this is a good thing.

 

No love for the "Breakin' up is hard to do" thread?  

[knapplc]

5 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

No love for the "Breakin' up is hard to do" thread?  

 

Doh! I should have put it in there. I forgot.

[4skers89]

17 hours ago, Jason Sitoke said:

Thanks bud.  So the ultimate result is all that matters.  There is no other metric that could possibly have value in characterizing performance. Trent Dilfer is a better quarterback than Dan Marino because ... Super Bowls.  Any other statistic or quantitative judgement in between is meaningless because .... scoreboard.

There might be something to the scoreboard argument when you listen to Chin talking about the defense being a part of a system. I don’t think I’ve heard him fully explain what he means by that. Here’s an interview I found

https://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/husker-defensive-coordinator-erik-chinander-wants-to-build-a-blackshirt/article_b54a55f5-1955-5bc0-a65a-1584acbd326f.html

 

Thus, in a perfect world, Chinander said, Nebraska’s defense has 22 starters — the kind of depth that will minimize fatigue if an opponent’s possessions start to pile up.

So there’s no need to put much stock in total yards allowed, Chinander said. He emphasizes “stats that work for us.”

Takeaways. Sacks. Yards allowed per carry. Explosive plays allowed. Points on defense.

 

 

[Nebfanatic]

8 minutes ago, 4skers89 said:

There might be something to the scoreboard argument when you listen to Chin talking about the defense being a part of a system. I don’t think I’ve heard him fully explain what he means by that. Here’s an interview I found

https://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/husker-defensive-coordinator-erik-chinander-wants-to-build-a-blackshirt/article_b54a55f5-1955-5bc0-a65a-1584acbd326f.html

 

Thus, in a perfect world, Chinander said, Nebraska’s defense has 22 starters — the kind of depth that will minimize fatigue if an opponent’s possessions start to pile up.

So there’s no need to put much stock in total yards allowed, Chinander said. He emphasizes “stats that work for us.”

Takeaways. Sacks. Yards allowed per carry. Explosive plays allowed. Points on defense.

 

 

I think Chin would agree points per possession would be a better stat than total points per game. Going forward we should have a stellar points per possession differential. That is what this system works towards.

[Moiraine]

I've been trying to think of good stats to differentiate between facing a lot of plays because the defense sucks and stays on the field forever, and facing a lot of plays because your offense scores quickly which increases the total # of possessions for the opposing offense.

I would think punts per play and punts per score combined with takeaways might help with that. If you had a high # of punts per play and a high # of takeaways, and your defense was still on the field a lot, it would be due to the offense(s) being fast paced and not because you suck.

 

Nebraska's 98th in punts per play and 62nd in the past 3 games.

[4skers89]

1 hour ago, Nebfanatic said:

I think Chin would agree points per possession would be a better stat than total points per game. Going forward we should have a stellar points per possession differential. That is what this system works towards.

I looked at explosive play ranking - we’re bad.  http://www.cfbstats.com/2018/leader/national/team/defense/split01/category30/sort01.html

 

A lot to fix on defense and depth is probably a big one.

[Nebfanatic]

8 minutes ago, 4skers89 said:

I looked at explosive play ranking - we’re bad.  http://www.cfbstats.com/2018/leader/national/team/defense/split01/category30/sort01.html

 

A lot to fix on defense and depth is probably a big one.

I'm not saying we are good right now and explosive plays is a decent measure but point is total points is not the determining factor of a good defense. No one stat is really.

[4skers89]

Just now, Nebfanatic said:

I'm not saying we are good right now and explosive plays is a decent measure but point is total points is not the determining factor of a good defense. No one stat is really.

Yeah, I was just making a comment.  Probably shouldn’t have quoted your post since it wasn’t directly related.

[Spooky Tooth]

5 hours ago, Nebfanatic said:

I'm not saying we are good right now and explosive plays is a decent measure but point is total points is not the determining factor of a good defense. No one stat is really.

 

 

Yup

 

[Mavric]

Maybe not exactly all on the Blackshirts but...

 

 

[Moiraine]

Just now, Mavric said:

Maybe not exactly all on the Blackshirts but...

 

 

 

 

I'll take 'em, 'cause other teams take 'em.

[Moiraine]

We are now tied for #35 in takeaways per game and tied for #5 for the last 3 games.

We are tied for #77 in turnover margin and tied for #7 for the last 3 games.

 

We're #108 in scoring defense and #82 for the last 3 games

We're #106 in opponent points per play and tied for #74 for the last 3 games


Our opponent yards per game is really bad and our opponent yards per game is really bad for the last 3 games.

 

 

I see no reason for anyone to panic and freak out over this season. If the trends were flat I'd get it, but they're not. If we could move those top 4 stats into the top 50 we'd be in a good position to go to the B1G championship every year.

[MichiganDad3]

On 11/8/2018 at 7:00 AM, KingBlank said:

No total scoring defense is the best measure because that's how many points they score to beat you.  There is no other "best" measure around the actual fact of the scoring of the other teams offense. 

IMO, points per possession is the most important. The defense should not get credit for the two fumbled punts we recovered. And the defense should not get credit for being paired with an offense than burns clock and limits possessions.

[Redux]

We held Illinois scoreless in the 3rd.  The only reason they got another 14 was due to an awful fumble on our side of the field by the 2nd team offense during mop up duty.  That fired them up enough and we had the game won and didn't exactly have to burn the extra effort to stop them.  We still should and could have stopped them, but look what happened on our last interception.

[Redux]

On 11/8/2018 at 3:55 PM, KingBlank said:

Pretty funny there bud.  Unfortunately the team that holds the other team to less points actually wins the football game.  I more the anyone point to statistics as the basis for judgement, points per play is metric used by fan bases to artificially inflate their own opinions of how good a defense is.  Also if the score was 29-28?  Who wins?

 

You keep trying to push the idea that Defense isn't affected by the Offense, then try to point to scoreboard.  It's a pretty weak argument and a bad look for someone preaching numbers and statistics.