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*** 2018 Game 11 "Expert" Picks: MSU At Nebraska ***

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2018 Game 11 “Expert” Picks: MSU @ Nebraska
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CollegeFootballNews.com
https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/11/michigan-state-vs-nebraska-fearless-prediction-game-preview
One Reason Why Michigan State Will Win
The defense continues to be amazing. It stuffed Ohio State last week, but lost because the field was tilted by the Buckeye punting game. The Spartans were able to keep the Buckeye ground game in check, and on the year, it has allowed just 765 yards. Giving up just 2.55 yards per carry and just five rushing scores since the opener against Utah State, MSU’s defensive front is tough, disciplined and doesn’t miss. At the moment, it’s having a historic season – just three teams in the last ten years finished allowing fewer than 1,000 rushing yards for the season, and two of them were named Alabama. Nebraska’s running game isn’t going to work, and QB Adrian Martinez will end up being a pocket passer a bit too much. The Huskers go fast, don’t care about time of possession, and still give up turnovers a bit too much. Michigan State will seem like it has the ball all afternoon, and it’ll take the Huskers down to its level of speed. Nebraska has to prove it can somehow win in a grinding fight.
One Reason Why Nebraska Will Win
The MSU run defense is amazing. The secondary can be hit. The Spartans were able to stuff a run-first/run-only Maryland offense a few weeks ago, but just about everyone else has been able to throw for 200 yards or a whole lot more. The comp here might just be the Utah State team that came so, so close to pulling off a win in the opener – and is currently ranked 14th in the CFP top 25. Lots of dinks and dunks, lots of quick-hitting throws, and lots of production when it was able to move the offense like it wanted to. It was a lot of bend-but-don’t-break from the MSU D, but it broke a bit too much. Now the Spartan secondary has to deal with the fantastic Nebraska receivers and a downfield passing game that will stretch things out a bit. Throw in that it’s the last home game of the season for the Huskers, and watch out for the energy level to ramp up. It’s been a rough year, but Nebraska has won three of its last four games. Win this, and this becomes the hot team in the West going into 2019.
What’s Going To Happen
Martinez will be great. He’s not going to run much, and he’ll have to bomb away, but he’ll average close to nine yards per throw as the Nebraska offense forces Michigan State to come out of its shell a little bit. Michigan State – even with LJ Scott redshirting for next year – will be able to run just well enough to do what it likes to do and make this a fight, but the Nebraska passing attack will pull it off with a late scoring drive culminating with a touchdown pass that will have the fan base buzzing.
Nebraska 24 - MSU 23
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ESPN FPI
http://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401012887
MSU - 69.7% Win
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Bill Connelly S&P+
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/11/8/18073620/college-football-picks-week-11-2018-predictions-odds-spreads
S&P+: MSU 26 - Nebraska 23 (57.7% MSU Win)
F+ Projection: MSU By 9 (70.1% MSU Win)
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DRatings
http://www.dratings.com/predictor/ncaa-football-predictions/
MSU 28 - Nebraska 24 (66.8% MSU Win)
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Ed Feng, The Power Rank
https://thepowerrank.com/predictions/
Michigan State (23) will beat Nebraska (61) by 5.4 on the road. Nebraska has a 34% chance of beating Michigan State.
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Athlon Sports
https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-football-picks-expert-predictions-every-game-week-12-2018
Steven Lassan: N
Mitch Light : N
Mark Ross: N

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/michigan-state-spartans-vs-nebraska-cornhuskers-prediction-picks-2018
This should be a very entertaining game that’s under the national radar. You’ve got strength versus strength in Nebraska’s offense versus Michigan State’s defense. The biggest X-factor: whether or not the Spartans offense can move the ball effectively against the Blackshirts. The Nebraska defense’s most recent performances suggest Michigan State should have at least some success despite its struggles moving the football.

The Huskers have to jump out to an early lead and are arguably one of the best teams in the country at doing so. Even if the Spartans are trailing by seven points or so going into the half, they’ll still be in the thick of it. Nebraska has an unfortunate habit of giving momentum back to the opponent in the second half, and that’s where Michigan State can pounce with proper adjustments. However, in the end, Scott Frost is a better offensive play caller than anyone on the Spartans staff. He has the necessary speed and efficiency on his side to take advantage of the occasional Michigan State misstep and should claim yet another win on the Huskers’ Senior Day
Nebraska 27 - MSU 20

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Big Red Wrap-Up
http://netnebraska.org/interactive-multimedia/sports/big-red-wrap-illinois-prediction-4
Kevin Kugler: MSU 31 - Nebraska 28
Jay More: Nebraska 31 - MSU 21
Damon Benning: Nebraska 28 - MSU 27
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I can see a chess match in this game with Scott Frost trying to identify a hole in MSU's run defense. With the weather and all, I can picture Nebraska's offense having quite a few three & outs, and struggling with the run all day, getting just enough first downs in the air to keep the game together. But at some point, after getting stuffed all day, I predict that someone is going to bust through with a long run to finally break MSU. Is it going to be Ozigbo? Washington? Martinez? I don't know, but I believe that Frost's offensive creativity is going to find that opportunity late in the game, and one of those guys is going to rip it. 

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I always feel like (somebody's watching me...and I get no privacy) NU seems to beat MSU especially when MSU is favored or ranked higher.

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1 hour ago, Ulty said:

I can see a chess match in this game with Scott Frost trying to identify a hole in MSU's run defense. With the weather and all, I can picture Nebraska's offense having quite a few three & outs, and struggling with the run all day, getting just enough first downs in the air to keep the game together. But at some point, after getting stuffed all day, I predict that someone is going to bust through with a long run to finally break MSU. Is it going to be Ozigbo? Washington? Martinez? I don't know, but I believe that Frost's offensive creativity is going to find that opportunity late in the game, and one of those guys is going to rip it. 

 

I could not agree more.  This is a prime type of game where Frost's gamesmanship on offense will show.  He learned from TO and others how to set up defenses for plays later in the game.  I predict (like you) we see that in this game.

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Upset Special: Michigan State at Nebraska (+2.5), Noon ET, FOX

Throw out the records (or at least Nebraska’s 3-7 mark). The Huskers are arguably a better team than the 6-4 Spartans as of today. Michigan State’s offense and special teams are a mess. Its undeniably stout defense will prevent Adrian Martinez and the Huskers from racking up their usual (as of late) 500-plus yards. But the Spartans can’t be counted on to score more than two TDs. Nebraska 24, Michigan State 19

 

https://theathletic.com/655018/2018/11/15/stewart-mandels-week-12-college-football-picks/

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Not necessarily "experts" but whatevs

 

 

Quote


Prediction

MSU 24, Nebraka 20: It will be another grind for the Spartans on offense, so the defense will need to play its best game of the season against the Huskers’ burgeoning offense. MSU limits the damage by Martinez and his dynamic duo of Morgan and Spielman through the air, continues to bottle up the run and allows for whoever is at QB (let’s just assume Lombardi) to make enough plays thanks to one defensive score.

 

 

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I know MSUs defense is really good.  But, over the last 7 games, we have averaged 38 points.  I am going to be very very surprised if we only score 20.  Their defensive back field is suspect and we have been successful throwing the ball against teams that commit to stopping our run game.

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The computers like Michigan State but the humans like Nebraska. As weak as our rushing defense has been, their rushing offense is worse: it's currently ranked #117. What I'm worried about is guys on our side who are dinged up and might not play on Saturday...

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8 hours ago, Toe said:

The computers like Michigan State but the humans like Nebraska. As weak as our rushing defense has been, their rushing offense is worse: it's currently ranked #117. What I'm worried about is guys on our side who are dinged up and might not play on Saturday...

I'm worried about being dinged up to, especially Spielman. Hard to focus on two great receivers, but if Spielman is out, MSU will have a much easier time matching up with us.

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2 hours ago, Wunderkind said:

I'm worried about being dinged up to, especially Spielman. Hard to focus on two great receivers, but if Spielman is out, MSU will have a much easier time matching up with us.

Game MVP:  Bryan Reimers (with Spielman & Morgan ahead of him, he’s a X-Factor who has SHOWN when given the opportunity). Plus it’s Senior Day! Also expect more reliance on the TEs if Spielman can’t go, or is ineffective.

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Frost and co. will have a good game plan to take Michigan State's defense out of their usual comfort zone (just as he did at Oregon).  Michigan State's offense will have a chance to pad their (dismal) stat line in this game as our defense is a paper tiger.  Both teams will turn the ball over but Nebraska will come out on top of the turnover battle once again and I can see them scoring enough points to put the game out of reach for Sparty's offense.  

 

Nebraska 31, Michigan State 21

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26 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

So, if Spielman is out (we won't know till the offense takes the field) who takes that spot?

 

TYJON... ER, DEPTH CHART SAYS MAZOUR FOLLOWED BY TODD(?) HONAS

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30 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

So, if Spielman is out (we won't know till the offense takes the field) who takes that spot?

Mazour is technically the #2 at Spielman’s position. I think that if Spielman can’t go we’re likely to see an increased role for him, and maybe more action in the slot motioning out of the backfield for Mo Washington (assuming he’s healthy).

 

Frankly, we’re really thin at WR - would like to be able to plug and play with Williams and Woodyard, but their roles are circumscribed, it seems, until they grasp things conceptually a little bit better.

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On 11/15/2018 at 8:36 AM, teachercd said:

I always feel like (somebody's watching me...and I get no privacy) NU seems to beat MSU especially when MSU is favored or ranked higher.

 

This comment Rock(well)'s!

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Ive got a feeling we run the ball well tomorrow. A couole seniors on that Oline that might like to prove a point in their last home game. I think we'll rush for 250.  

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16 minutes ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

Ive got a feeling we run the ball well tomorrow. A couple seniors on that Oline that might like to prove a point in their last home game. I think we'll rush for 250.  

I have the same feeling.  Although, I have no idea how we will do it.

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1 hour ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

Ive got a feeling we run the ball well tomorrow. A couole seniors on that Oline that might like to prove a point in their last home game. I think we'll rush for 250.  

 

Please please please PLEASE be right

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The defense needs to win this game. MSU's defense is legit. This isn't a game I see us scoring quickly in, it'll take a few series to sort things out. The defense needs to stay in this until that happens. We're not talking shutdown D here, I think if we can hold them to about their season averages our offense will eventually put together enough plays to score enough.

 

If we have some of these guys healthy, I like Nebraska but not until late.

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1 minute ago, brophog said:

The defense needs to win this game. MSU's defense is legit. This isn't a game I see us scoring quickly in, it'll take a few series to sort things out. The defense needs to stay in this until that happens. We're not talking shutdown D here, I think if we can hold them to about their season averages our offense will eventually put together enough plays to score enough.

 

If we have some of these guys healthy, I like Nebraska but not until late.

We need to play D like we did against Wisconsin early on. They broke eventually but they gave the O opportunities in the first half of the game we just couldn't take advantage.

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It just FEELS GOOD  knowing that the team is really playing for each other, for the seniors in their last game. It’s not just talk this year, they are actually good enough to talk it then go do something about it. The home field, last game, bad weather, we rollin right now...

 

I think Martinez passes for 280 and we run for 200. 

 

N 27

MSU 12

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Hunter94 said:

sounds like our guys are pretty beat up.  that concerns me.

Their guys are more beat up though 

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28 minutes ago, Hunter94 said:

sounds like our guys are pretty beat up.  that concerns me.

They’re down to like their second and third string RB’s, WR’s and OL. I would say MSU is more “beat up.”

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Speilman is a huge X factor in this game. I have a feeling the quick outs and allowing him to gain little chunks and move the chains will be huge. I still think we have a shot if he’s out but won’t be as effective.

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If Spielman is out, I expect one of the guys we've marked as 'not ready for prime time' comes in and shines.  It is late in the season.  Those that may have been iffy early may well have improved a lot and have just not seen a lot of playing time due to in-game circumstances.  Much like when you prep for one QB and another one is forced to play due to injury and he lights up the defense because no one prepped for him.  Or at least I hope that....

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15 hours ago, brophog said:

The defense needs to win this game. MSU's defense is legit. This isn't a game I see us scoring quickly in, it'll take a few series to sort things out. The defense needs to stay in this until that happens. We're not talking shutdown D here, I think if we can hold them to about their season averages our offense will eventually put together enough plays to score enough.

 

If we have some of these guys healthy, I like Nebraska but not until late.

 

Whew.

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4 minutes ago, brophog said:

 

Whew.

Except for a few big plays and the help of some dropped passes, the defense played well.  Good call on getting the win late.

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