Chinander by the numbers

[4skers89]

I’m hoping that our offense will become more consistent next year giving us early leads in games. I believe that Chin’s defense, as part of the “system”, works better when forcing opposing offenses into point chasing mode. Also with a lead and confidence in the offense, the defense can gamble more and be aggressive.  Get Iowa and Wisconsin out of their grind it out keep away comfort zone and they’ll start making mistakes.  The defense first needs to improve enough to make stops on drives like Iowa’s opening drive.

 

Since our offense is not like Iowa and Wisconsin, as Frost mentioned this season, they need to figure out how to duplicate these offenses in practice in order to better prepare our defense. A lot of the offenses in the AAC were similar to UCF’s but Frost found a way to prepare for Navy.  The staff needs to think through a lot of defensive issues and put together a plan to fix them during the offseason.

[Moiraine]

1 minute ago, 4skers89 said:

I’m hoping that our offense will become more consistent next year giving us early leads in games. I believe that Chin’s defense, as part of the “system”, works better when forcing opposing offenses into point chasing mode. Also with a lead and confidence in the offense, the defense can gamble more and be aggressive.  Get Iowa and Wisconsin out of their grind it out keep away comfort zone and they’ll start making mistakes.  The defense first needs to improve enough to make stops on drives like Iowa’s opening drive.

 

Since our offense is not like Iowa and Wisconsin, as Frost mentioned this season, they need to figure out how to duplicate these offenses in practice in order to better prepare our defense. A lot of the offenses in the AAC were similar to UCF’s but Frost found a way to prepare for Navy.  The staff needs to think through a lot of defensive issues and put together a plan to fix them during the offseason.

 

 

Having 160 players should help make the scout team better.

[Enhance]

3 minutes ago, 4skers89 said:

Since our offense is not like Iowa and Wisconsin, as Frost mentioned this season, they need to figure out how to duplicate these offenses in practice in order to better prepare our defense. A lot of the offenses in the AAC were similar to UCF’s but Frost found a way to prepare for Navy.

It goes without saying, but the other big part of that will be S&C and technique improvements. Wisconsin's and Iowa's offensive lines had too much success pushing NU's defensive line around.

[Undone]

13 minutes ago, Enhance said:

It goes without saying, but the other big part of that will be S&C and technique improvements. Wisconsin's and Iowa's offensive lines had too much success pushing NU's defensive line around.

 

This is also quite possibly partially a product of the three down linemen system. On every single down, your three down linemen match up against their five base linemen, not to mention the fact that the tight end is totally "a thing" in B1G play.

 

This is where Chinander enters the stage, because our linebackers have to be in proper position against the "power" teams like Wisconsin and Iowa. You absolutely have to have linebackers that aren't just strong but are also fast, and are coached for proper run fit assignment. There were some flashes where I saw Tyrin Ferguson look like he was going to make a big impact here, but overall, we just didn't have the athletes (by and large) at linebacker to overcome the inherent problems that a three down linemen front creates against these power teams.

[beorach]

On 11/23/2018 at 6:36 PM, Huskers93-97 said:

I think these stats are interesting to note. They seem contrary that you cannot be an up tempo team and play better defense. Also I think they are relevant to analyzing chinander as a coach. 

 

Last year UCF was ranked 53rd in scoring defense. 

 

This year UCF ranks 21st in scoring defense. Even with departures of their 2 best defensive players in Hughes and griffin off to the NFL. 

 

I think that stat is interesting because it is basically the same players except lacking your 2 best players chinander had when he was the DC. 

 

I think it also shows a top 10 offense that goes up tempo can also stop the other team from scoring. 

 

Last year we we had one of our worst defenses ever and ranked 116th in scoring defense. This year we rank 89th, which is better but still pathetic. But honestly who couldn’t improve from diaco. 

 

Looking at one stat is so myopic that it makes a misnomer of this thread.  UCF losing a couple of stars isn't all that changed between this season and the last.  E.g., there were two other ranked teams in the American Athletic Conference last season at this time (and they went on to make the final AP poll as well).  I assume the AAC still has a championship game, too.  I went ahead and crunched the defensive numbers for the two seasons, despite the aforementioned differences.  There's also the matter of the offensive differences playing a role but I'm going to leave that to the turnover margin only.  The percentiles below are calculated from stats generated in conference games between conference teams only (through January 8th of this year for the 2017 season and through last weekend for this one).

 

Pass D

completions per game: 74 (now) versus 75 (then with EC)

percentage: 76 versus 63

yards per attempt: 88 to 16

touchdowns per game: 94 to 47

rating: 86 to 33

yards per game: 89 to 39

 

Rush D

yards per carry: 47 to 33

touchdowns per game: 79 to 72

yards per game: 20 to 41

 

Scoring D

touchdowns per game: 67 to 56

points per game: 83 to 56

 

Total D

yards per play: 67 to 31

yards per game: 26 to 12

plays per game: 45 to 48

 

Turnover Margin

fumbles gained per game: 60 to 53

interceptions gained per game: 18 to 85

turnovers gained per game: 29 to 81

fumbles lost per game: 93 to 65

interceptions lost per game: 33 to 90

turnovers lost per game: 72 to 89

turnover margin per game: 50 to 92

 

Both defenses have given up a lot of yards.  EC's got a lot more picks.  If you only look at TD's allowed per game, the difference in scoring defense is less dramatic.  The current squad has some gaudy numbers against the pass and obviously limited big plays more.

[BigRedBuster]

1 hour ago, Minnesota_husker said:

Faster offense means your defense is on the field more. 

 

Our offense currently isnt super fast. They put up points, but I assume in the next year or so, they will speed things up far more.

 

Defense will simply have less time to rest and so yes, I think that will make life harder on them. Ideally they get a 3 and out but if the offense scores in 2 min, they are back out there. More chances to potentially get beat.

 

Compared to Iowa who runs 7 minute drives. Didnt help their defense against Nebraska but gave them more rest time.

 

 

It can be a factor late in games.  But, like I said, this is not a reason for a defense to be giving up a lot of points and yards early in games.

[Minnesota_husker]

1 hour ago, BigRedBuster said:

It can be a factor late in games.  But, like I said, this is not a reason for a defense to be giving up a lot of points and yards early in games.

Not fully sure if you are getting my point.

 

Faster offense means more time for defense to be on the field. While I get a good defense can shut down a team and give it back to the offense, my point is that defense will be put on the field more times.

 

The more time on the field means more opportunities to give up points. 

 

Compare that to a team like Iowa who holds onto the ball and your defense might only have to deal with a few possessions because your offense is taking their time.

 

 

I am not saying the more possessions make your defense worse or "tired(it can but to your point that would take affect later in the game). I am saying it simply means more chances to make a mistake.

 

Fast offenses like Oregon tend to put more pressure on defenses. 

[Huskers93-97]

21 minutes ago, beorach said:

 UCF losing a couple of stars isn't all that changed between this season and the last. 

I would argue that losing 1 star alone makes a HUGE difference (Especially if your not Alabama or Ohio State who just replaces them with another 5 star surrounding by other 5 stars). I see Griffen running all over the place for the Seattle Seahawks making plays. I dont know what hughes is doing at the NFL level.

 

Good example to put in perspective for husker teams. How much difference would our defense have been without SUH? Or how much did Lavontae David shut down plays over and over. Or Randy Gregory get enough pressure on the QB to make our defense look even better than it was. 

[BigRedBuster]

3 minutes ago, Minnesota_husker said:

Not fully sure if you are getting my point.

 

Faster offense means more time for defense to be on the field. While I get a good defense can shut down a team and give it back to the offense, my point is that defense will be put on the field more times.

 

The more time on the field means more opportunities to give up points. 

 

Compare that to a team like Iowa who holds onto the ball and your defense might only have to deal with a few positions because your offense is taking their time.

 

 

I am not saying the more possessions make your defense worse or "tired(it can but to your point that would take affect later in the game). I am saying it simply means more chances to make a mistake.

 

Fast offenses like Oregon tend to put more pressure on defenses. 

Thanks for the clarification....and I would agree with that.

 

Just look at the average number of snaps defenses go up against in a game now compared to 20 years ago.  It's just like I said somewhere, it used to be that I thought an offense should be able to count on a defense to hold the other team to under 20.  Now, I would say that's 30.  The games are just being played much faster, more snaps, more possessions...etc.

[Huskers93-97]

5 minutes ago, Minnesota_husker said:

Not fully sure if you are getting my point.

 

Faster offense means more time for defense to be on the field. While I get a good defense can shut down a team and give it back to the offense, my point is that defense will be put on the field more times.

 

The more time on the field means more opportunities to give up points. 

 

Compare that to a team like Iowa who holds onto the ball and your defense might only have to deal with a few positions because your offense is taking their time.

 

 

I am not saying the more possessions make your defense worse or "tired(it can but to your point that would take affect later in the game). I am saying it simply means more chances to make a mistake.

 

Fast offenses like Oregon tend to put more pressure on defenses. 

One could also argue the reason we see alot of offensive snaps is because the teams we play have long sustained drives because we cant get off the field on 3rd down. Maybe less about how fast our offense moves and more about not being able to stop a drive. 

 

I dont have the energy to look it up. But have we "the huskers" had more offensive possessions this year than typical years past per game? It sure doesnt feel like it watching the games- but it does seem like our defense is on the field alot- and like I said not because our offense moves fast but just because every drive seems like its 10 plays long.

[beorach]

7 minutes ago, Huskers93-97 said:

I would argue that losing 1 star alone makes a HUGE difference (Especially if your not Alabama or Ohio State who just replaces them with another 5 star surrounding by other 5 stars). I see Griffen running all over the place for the Seattle Seahawks making plays. I dont know what hughes is doing at the NFL level.

 

Good example to put in perspective for husker teams. How much difference would our defense have been without SUH? Or how much did Lavontae David shut down plays over and over. Or Randy Gregory get enough pressure on the QB to make our defense look even better than it was. 

 

I was never arguing it wouldn't/didn't make a difference.  I pointed out it wasn't the only one.  You were also minimizing that (one difference you are now trying to exaggerate) in your original post.

[Vince R.]

Sorry to throw off the flow here, but I actually like what I saw from Chinander this year. I knew our players were behind in physical and mental development. I saw moments where i thought, "that's how they want to play". The steady improvement and the slew of turnovers that started to happen was very positive. In my opinion, the biggest issue this team had was their absolute lulls on O. Going dormant for 2 quarters a game did not help the D at all. 

[Undone]

6 minutes ago, Vince R. said:

The steady improvement and the slew of turnovers that started to happen was very positive. In my opinion, the biggest issue this team had was their absolute lulls on O. Going dormant for 2 quarters a game did not help the D at all. 

And we could probably add the tendency to turn the ball over on offense during quite a few games throughout the season, also. That - combined also with offensive penalties - contributed to some of those lulls.

In a nutshell, this was a team in total disarray coming into the 2018 off-season. Like you said Vince, I also believe we saw the effect that (at least relatively good) coaching had on our defense when we entered into the second half of the season. 

In my opinion, the only way we compete legitimately for a conference title next year against whoever wins the East is if we put up "2017 UCF" offensive points-per-game stats. Our defensive roster isn't positioned to carry the team to that kind of success next year quite yet without an insanely good offense. In losing Morgan, I'm not sure "insanely good offense" is possible but I absolutely expect a minimum of an increase in average offensive points-per-game of roughly 6-7 points more than this season, which takes us up from roughly 30 to the mid to upper 30s. 

If you combine that bump in offense with even just a super small bump in defensive performance, we have a decent shot of winning the West. But neither thing is any kind of a guarantee. Specifically to the topic of this thread, our defensive effort and performance over the second half of this season was very positive and if that translates over to next year, I think we'll win a minimum of 8 games.

[4skers89]

ESPN declared defense dead so whatever.

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25387894/west-virginia-oklahoma-lsu-texas-weekend-defense-died

[ColoradoHusk]

Bootle, not Barry is the only NU defender mentioned on the first All-Conference team released.