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huskerinacaveman

Do we need top 5 classes to be successful?

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Just as the title says.  Do we need to have a top 5 class, or classes to achieve success. 

 

Success (for me) is defined by beating who we should, competing for wins against the top tier teams in the conference and being in a position to make playoff appearances. 

 

Does the system allow for top 20-25 classes to have this that sort of success?

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If Nebraska only gets recruiting classes ranked between 20-25 they should be able to win the west consistently with a coach like frost. But will they consistently beat whoever comes out of the east with those numbers? Probably not. 

There is only much a coach can do when facing a team like ohio state. Even Wisconsin has lost to osu something like 8 out their last 10. 

 

For me i think Nebraska being a traditional power in a prestigious conference should be able to recruit around 15 or so. 

 

For me success for Nebraska would be making 3 big 10 title games every 5 years and winning one of those.

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Short answer is no for top 5. Top 25 isn't good enough. Need to break the top 20 on a regular basis and pushing for top 15. 

 

This is how you build Nebraska back and Frost is already implenting it. 

 

1) Dominate in-state recruiting for scholarship level players. 

 

2) Make the walkon program mean something again. These guys get recruited just as scholarship players do. The fewer D1 level players that leave the state for any level of play the better for the program. Also include walkons from outside the region. Quality walkon classes of 20 to 30 yearly is needed. 

 

why is the above important? These kids bleed red. They want to play for Nebraska. We know there was a lost generation from bad coaching hires, but Frost is already turning that around. Kids growing up today will be growing up under the Frost era and will dream of playing for him. This brings a lot of Nebraska pride to the lockerroom, meeting rooms, practice fields, nutrition rooms, and weight room. Far too many scholarship level players have left the state the last many years that have gone on to NFL careers. Reverse that and Frost already is. We went 5 for 5 in this class and that was the first time we slept in-state recruiting in many years. 

 

3) Dominate the 500 mile radius. Some may say it is overrated, but I would argue it is undervalued in its importance. It is easier to land elite talent that is local. If they are a fit, they are must gets. The more elite talent we get from Colorado, Oklahoma, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, South Dakota, and others like Wisconsin, the better it is for the football program. We lost our brand in this area over the last 17ish years and we are in the process of rebuilding that back. In a couple of more years we should be back into St. Louis landing elite talent, getting elite talent regularly from Colorado, making OU stress over elite talent from their own state, etc. 

 

4) Go out on a national scale and get the best talent possible that is a fit. Chase, Ty Robinson, Wandale Robinson and Hannah are perfect examples of this. A couple more gets in the upper tier of classes with the great national talent and you got top 15 class. 

 

Then it all comes down to player development and schemes. 

 

It sounds easier than done, but Frost is doing exactly what I wrote above and I am a strong believer it is exactly the recipe to bring us back to competing for national titles. We should not stress over getting a certain number of recruits from Florida, Texas and California. Go national for the elite recruits and get whoever from wherever. There is NFL talent to be recruited in all states for the most part. Go and get them. 

 

Lastly, if we were running a pro style or other complex systems that require precise style of play, then you would need elite classes to have any chance. Under the Frost system you can get to the national title level by getting classes in the 15 to 20 range. It's been proven at Oregon. 

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My formula is as follows. We need to recruit, in a balanced fashion, eight star level players, four star guys on the recruiting service, per year. Over a five year cycle, including a redshift year, you would have 40 star level guys on the roster. Assume an attrition of 50 percent. Now you have 20. With a balance of defense and offense, that is 10 per side. Now four players on each side are not contributing because they're redshift guys or redshirt freshmen. Six stars. The remainder of the starters and the extent of the depth chart is filled through the development of three star guys and walk on guys. This can work and it can work to a healthy extent against the top teams in the East. Win the conference in a year where the schedule sets up well with a manageable cross over slate and you are in the playoffs. That playoff hurts us because it's easier to get one upset than it is two. But if the bracket breaks right, why not us?

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3 hours ago, huskerinacaveman said:

Just as the title says.  Do we need to have a top 5 class, or classes to achieve success. 

 

Success (for me) is defined by beating who we should, competing for wins against the top tier teams in the conference and being in a position to make playoff appearances. 

 

Does the system allow for top 20-25 classes to have this that sort of success?

 

 

Historically for Nebraska, no. For Scott's system, based off what we have seen with Oregon and UCF, no. If he does sign a top ten or top five class however, things could get ugly for everyone not named Nebraska. 

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I was excited when Frost and co decided to take the job at Nebraska.  I thought then and still do that his scheme was going to make up a lot of ground in the BIG 10 that we have ceded to the powers that be in both the west and the east.  On the flip side, scheme will only get you so far against teams with their own great scheme and better athletes. The Ohio States and Michigans and to some degree Penn St's of the world have consistantly signed higher rated classes than we have for many years. We get (have gotten) good athletes while they get great athletes.  We mostly haven't had a defense that can get 3 and outs or get a high volume of turnovers (except the Suh years).I think it will take another 3 to 5 years to get recruiting so we are again a household name for the big time high school players all over the country.  In the meantime we'll have to make gains in recruiting every year, coach them up, get stronger , bigger and faster to win the west then challenge for the CCG.   

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10 hours ago, husker98 said:

 

 

Historically for Nebraska, no. For Scott's system, based off what we have seen with Oregon and UCF, no. If he does sign a top ten or top five class however, things could get ugly for everyone not named Nebraska. 

Pretty much this^^^^

 

 

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14 hours ago, huskerinacaveman said:

Just as the title says.  Do we need to have a top 5 class, or classes to achieve success. 

 

Success (for me) is defined by beating who we should, competing for wins against the top tier teams in the conference and being in a position to make playoff appearances. 

 

Does the system allow for top 20-25 classes to have this that sort of success?

 

I don't think you need top 5 classes (which I don't think is possible at Nebraska without an outlier in in-state talent) under your definition of success.  I think the current trajectory of recruiting will be sufficient. 

 

Now, for funsies if you're talking national championships, history shows that you need to average a top 10 class for 4 years up to the national championship which 11 of the past 14 teams have done.  Now, the good news for Nebraska is two of the three outliers had generational talents at QB (2010 Auburn w/ Cam Newton and 2016 Clemson w/ Deshaun Watson) if you think 2AM has that potential (and I happen to think he is) than you've got yourself a fighting chance but you still need to probably average in the 15ish range.  2003 LSU is the other outlier and they averaged 12th...however 2 of the years they had a class ranked 2nd and 3rd.

 

I took most of my info from this article...

 

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/history-shows-national-titles-require-great-not-just-good-recruiting-over-4-years/

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14 hours ago, huskerinacaveman said:

Just as the title says.  Do we need to have a top 5 class, or classes to achieve success. 

 

Success (for me) is defined by beating who we should, competing for wins against the top tier teams in the conference and being in a position to make playoff appearances. 

 

Does the system allow for top 20-25 classes to have this that sort of success?

 

Times have changed.  Back in TO's day, I would say no.  His recruiting classes right before the run weren't really highly ranked classes.  However, a lot of things have changed since then.  Heck, back then the best two teams didn't even play each other in the bowl most years because of conference tie-ins with bowls.  In today's day and age especially with talk about expanding the playoff, I'd say you definitely need at least some top 10 classes or need to be very lucky in avoiding injuries and attrition.  Depth becomes a big factor when a playoff is involved.  If it expands to eight teams, it will be an even bigger factor if the ultimate goal is a NC.   

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Certainly not necessary for SF and company to be successful as made evident by UCF's run and the success of group of 5 teams.

 

Just look at Florida State, they consistently had top 10 classes with Jimbo and scads of NFL talent. Save for a National Title a few years ago they have seemed to squander every season at some point and be a whole lot of flash without the play to back it up.

 

I'll take the Scott Frost led mid-level talent that is maximized over the hyped 4-5 star teams who might not play with a chip on their shoulder.

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52 minutes ago, husker_fan_from_sweden said:

Just look at Florida State, they consistently had top 10 classes with Jimbo and scads of NFL talent. Save for a National Title a few years ago they have seemed to squander every season at some point and be a whole lot of flash without the play to back it up.

 

This is besides the point. Just because some teams with top talent don't do well doesn't mean that you don't still NEED top talent to achieve at the highest level.

 

Anyways, your report on Fisher's FSU is overblown as well. He won three conference crowns, won his division a 4th time, won a national championship, made it to the playoffs, and had four top 10 finishes out of his 7 years. They certainly underachieved some but Fisher had a very nice run at FSU.

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I don't think there is any proof of it not being necessary for the last 10-12 years.  What was done at UCF is history, just as the TO run.  Thinking that Coach Frost recruiting in the mid 20's will bring NC opportunities is homerism for sure.  It could happen, but highly doubtful.  I am just hopeful he makes us respected, gets us to the big dance on occasion.  If he does we should be very happy, if it doesn't happen and we win the ones we should I will be happy..  Being in the playoff is a dream.  He is a great fit at Nebraska, he has won some major games but he has not established that he is a great coach.  I think he will, but not necessarily by counting NC.  

 

Currently the difference between the top 15 programs is gigantic.

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