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HB's Cream of the Crop: Contributors and Casualties --- 2019 Edition

Career Contributors  

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This thread is a little premature as we have only got through the first NSD. However, we can always have Round 2 in February. The intent here is to predict who will be meaningful contributors (e.g., starters and heavily-rotated back-ups) over their careers and who will be scout team, non-contributors, and/or transferring out.

 

The rules are simple, you get to assign 65% of the signed recruits as "Contributors" (right now that is 15 players) and the other 35% as "Non-contributors" (8 players). Also, you can highlight only 2 players as "Day 1 Impact Players".

 

Make these assignments however you like, but it is probably worth considering the individual recruit's potential, need at position, and position coaches' PT philosophies (e.g., rotational like at DL or no rotations like at OL).

 

 

 

Okay, now, here is the historical context as to why I chose the set rules... 

 

Every year we pontificate about how impactful each recruit will be on the field. The truth is looking over the past decade, Nebraska has averaged 21 players in each recruiting class and only 13-14 (or 65%) of the class sees meaningful playing time in their career. There is also a lot of talk about "Day 1 starters", but again looking at the ten-year average, 2 players from each recruiting class earn significant playing time their freshman year.

 

Those stats do not include the 2017 and 2018 classes, as I thought it was unfair to determine their career contributions as Freshman, RS Freshman, and Sophomores. Also, with the new 4 game RS rule, what is considered "first-year contributors" may differ, so as of right now, I am considering players that burn their RS in their true freshman year and provide meaningful snaps.

 

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First-year contributors

Wandale Robinson --- Lot of hype, similar to Washington coming in. I think the staff puts him out there right away to see what they got.

Jamie Nance --- Speed and good WR ability. WR is definitely a position of need to replace Morgan's production.

 

Career contributors

Nick Henrich --- Great year for in-state talent, and he is at the top. Give him a year or so in the weight room.

Bryce Benhart --- Didn't put him as a 1st-year contributor given his position, but an argument could easily be made.

Ty Robinson --- This is the type of big-sized athlete you want on the DL.

Rahmir Johnson --- Unheralded because of Wandale, but I love his running style. Really, he checks all the boxes (speed, good cuts, vision, toughness, character)

Jackson Hannah --- Hit-stick, Big Ten style LB

Chris Hickman --- Very athletic. Needs size.

Quinton Newsome --- Outstanding film

Garrett Nelson --- Motor. Someone that makes coaches put him on the field.

Javin Wright --- Good size for a CB. Like physically. Good speed (long-strider, not a lot of burst)

Brant Banks --- Someone you let set the strong-side edge.

Ethan Piper --- Honestly, not sure whether he plays NT or OG. Athletic and could develop the size for either.

Matthew Anderson --- Taking a gamble here same as the staff. Really like his frame and athleticism

Jimmy Fritzche --- Same as Anderson.

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Non-contributors

Luke McCaffrey --- Great athlete but may get recruited over at QB. Hate to say that.

Darian Chase --- Needs some development and last year did not prove to me that WR will get enough.

Ronald Thompkins --- Injury history.

Mosai Newsom --- Could be a sleeper but needs a lot of time to develop. If the team starts winning at a high clip, he could get recruited over.

Jamin Graham --- Special teams probably.

Garret Snodgrass ---- Another special teams guy.

Michael Lynn --- We have three OL projects in this class. Clearly intentional by the staff, but not all projects work out.

Myles Farmer --- See him similar to Newsome, but I like Newsome's film better.

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I got Wandale and Ty Robinson as my early impact guys

 

Career:

 

Henrich

Benhart

Robinson

Robinson

Hannah

Hickman

Farmer

McCaffery

Thompkins

Snodgrass

Anderson

Wright 

Nelson

Nance 

Piper

 

 

 

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Sorry, I'm not going to pencil-in anyone as a "non-contributor" before they arrive on campus.  That's just not right.  What if the recruits read this stuff?  

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Genuinely thought this was going to be about ranking Huskerboard board members and their contributions. 

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1 hour ago, Decoy73 said:

Sorry, I'm not going to pencil-in anyone as a "non-contributor" before they arrive on campus.  That's just not right.  What if the recruits read this stuff?  

Fair point. Still, why make a "Super Six" or use a star-rating system? This is about talent evaluation, which is strictly prognostication.

 

1 hour ago, Enhance said:

Genuinely thought this was going to be about ranking Huskerboard board members and their contributions. 

Oh, that is next...:lol:

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Contributors
Nick Henrich - Big time get

Wandale Robinson - Between his ability and lack of guys ahead of him, I think he's a lock for a DAY 1 IMPACT PLAYER

Bryce Benhart - Will push for playing time next year - I could see him start at RT and Farniok move inside

Ty Robinson - Big time get

Rahmir Johnson - I like speed

Darien Chase - Speed to burn and receiver room is open

Jackson Hannah - Great pair with Henrich for years to come

Jamie Nance - Same as Chase

Chris Hickman - Might have to wait his turn but has potential

Quinton Newsome - DBs need some help

Mosai Newsom - Might be a steal

Garrett Nelson - Monster motor

Michael Lynn - Probably moves to the interior but will be solid there

Matthew Anderson - Comes through as a solid OT

Jimmy Fritzche - Frost's projection works out

 

Non-Contributors

Luke McCaffrey - Kind of hate this take as I think he's a great athlete.  But QB is a tough spot to hit at, especially when you're on the heels of an established starter

Ronald Thompkins - Really like him but major injuries to both knees make me wonder

Myles Farmer - Probably some special teams but maybe not an every down guy

Jamin Graham - Same as Farmer

Javin Wright - Maybe too much of a tweener to find a big role

Garret Snodgrass - Not sure he's quite enough of a top-shelf athlete

Brant Banks - DL is crowded in this class

Ethan Piper - Same as Banks

 

I think either Benhart or Robinson could be my other IMPACT PLAYER but I hate picking a true freshman lineman to do that.  So I don't know who I'd pick as my other selection.  Nance or Chase probably (based on lack of people ahead of them) so I'll go with Chase.

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Its tough for me because I like other guys in this class too. Hopefully Frost evaluates talent better than we have in the past and can hit on closer to 75-80% of prospects.

 

For one example, I think Frost will get much more out of multiple skill guys than we have in the past. I like Ramhir Johnson and Darrien Chase and I think they will both end up contributing simply due to our offense having more touches, yards and TDs to go around. 

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37 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

Its tough for me because I like other guys in this class too. Hopefully Frost evaluates talent better than we have in the past and can hit on closer to 75-80% of prospects.

Same. I was looking for national averages for contributors from each recruiting class. However, I could not find the stats, so I focused only on Nebraska's history. I wonder what the national average is?

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32 minutes ago, Thanks_Tom RR said:

Same. I was looking for national averages for contributors from each recruiting class. However, I could not find the stats, so I focused only on Nebraska's history. I wonder what the national average is?

I edited my post to really clarify where I think Frost will get better return. I'll try to do a bit of research on a top team like Alabama.

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46 minutes ago, Dilly Dilly said:

Luke M will contribute.  It just might not be at QB.

 

I was going to vote for this as well but I thought that might be cheating.  :D

 

If he's set on playing QB, the odds are against him.  Not that it won't happen, that's just how it goes for college QBs.  But if he'd be willing to look at a Duck-R type spot, he'll find the field one way or the other.

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13 minutes ago, huKSer said:

I thought this was about HB posters

I am preparing to do annual evaluations for all of our graduate students. If you want, I could add you to the list to be evaluated. :rollin

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4 hours ago, Mavric said:

Contributors
Nick Henrich - Big time get

Wandale Robinson - Between his ability and lack of guys ahead of him, I think he's a lock for a DAY 1 IMPACT PLAYER

Bryce Benhart - Will push for playing time next year - I could see him start at RT and Farniok move inside

Ty Robinson - Big time get

Rahmir Johnson - I like speed

Darien Chase - Speed to burn and receiver room is open

Jackson Hannah - Great pair with Henrich for years to come

Jamie Nance - Same as Chase

Chris Hickman - Might have to wait his turn but has potential

Quinton Newsome - DBs need some help

Mosai Newsom - Might be a steal

Garrett Nelson - Monster motor

Michael Lynn - Probably moves to the interior but will be solid there

Matthew Anderson - Comes through as a solid OT

Jimmy Fritzche - Frost's projection works out

 

 

We'll see how it plays out, but this is  SPOT ON IMO.  

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Wandale of course . He is a dynamic play maker perfectly suited to this offense. 4 year starter IMO 

Benhart , Giant dude will push for playing time right away, and will only get bigger/better

McCaffery, One of my favorite players in the class. We are one twisted Martinez knee from seeing him on the field at QB, and if not i see him on the field in another capacity. If hes any where near as good as his Dad/brothers, we need him on the field.

Ty is another giant guy who could see action early due to lack of an effective pass rusher. Plenty of upside with this guy too

Hannah is a steal IMO he could see playing time also . Big body guy who i think  will surprise people

Garrett is a grown man already with room to grow more. Hes a Nebraska kid with a high motor, who wants this as much as anyone in the class 

Really like Henrich too i think he may need to bulk up some but WTH do I know lol  I think the same about Hickman 

Rahmir is from Jersey so nobody knows who he is, but he has great speed that  I'm sure Frost will find a way to use

Nance could see early playing time too dynamic playmaker

I dont see a bust in this class though im sure there will be one or two, there always is. I could see some of the OL and DL guys needing time to build their bodies and knowledge before being contributors. 

 

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2 Day 1 Impacts

1. Wandale Robinson- Kid is ready to go and fits this scheme well.  

2.  Rahmir Johnson- Need another RB to step up and I think this kid has a diverse skill set that he can find the field early. \

 

Early Contributors

1. Jackson Hannah-  No wasted steps in diagnosing plays and arrives with an attitude.  Can play inside and out, can also put his hand in the ground.  

2. Ty Robinson- Long, big and athletic.  Think he finds his way into a deep DL rotation early in his career. 

3. Jamie Nance- Speed, speed, and more speed at a position of need.

4. Bryce Benhart- Probably wont start as a frosh, but should be in the 2 deep and get some reps 

5. Myles Farmer- Versatile athlete that fits what Fisher is looking for.  Plays Sp teams and might find some PT like ol Cam Taylor did this year.

6. Nick Henrich- Going to need to put on some weight, but a very instinctive LB that will need to be ready to play. 

 

Contributors

1-2 Fritzchke and Anderson- 2 guys that will take a year or 2 to shape their bodies but have good athleticism for their position.

3-4- Wright and Newsome- 

5. Darien Chase- Outside WR similar to Stan the Man

6. Chris Hickman- Stretch, athletic TE

7. Garret Nelson- a Ben Stille type of player for us

8. Piper- Just couldnt stand putting him as a non contributor.  4.81 40 at our camp at 280 is impressive. Just find this kid a home and let him grow.

 

Non Contributors

1.Graham- Needs to beef up

2.Mosai- See him and Banks as projects along the DL

3.Banks- 

4.Lynn- Havent seen his SR tape, but doesnt move like the other prospects.

5. Thompson-Injuries could be an issue

6. Mccaffrey- WIll be tough to play at that position.  Not a knock on his talent at all.  Has at least 2 years to wait his turn, which is rare these days.  Could see the field before if injury occurs.  

 

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I think we are really sleeping on McCaffrey.  This is a player that knows where he’s at in his development and whose family has been through this many times. This family isn’t rushing through things.

 

 He’s an ideal prospect in Mario’s eyes as he prefers athletes that he can mold into QBs. We are focusing so much on how Luke may have to sit behind Martinez that we forget the possibility he may jump Martinez. Or the possibility he redshirts and Martinez goes pro early.  There are simply so many scenarios out there where a player that’s just a little bit patient can still find his opportunity.

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On 12/28/2018 at 10:33 AM, Mavric said:

Contributors

Wandale Robinson - Between his ability and lack of guys ahead of him, I think he's a lock for a DAY 1 IMPACT PLAYER

 

 

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15 hours ago, brophog said:

I think we are really sleeping on McCaffrey.  This is a player that knows where he’s at in his development and whose family has been through this many times. This family isn’t rushing through things.

 

 He’s an ideal prospect in Mario’s eyes as he prefers athletes that he can mold into QBs. We are focusing so much on how Luke may have to sit behind Martinez that we forget the possibility he may jump Martinez. Or the possibility he redshirts and Martinez goes pro early.  There are simply so many scenarios out there where a player that’s just a little bit patient can still find his opportunity.

 

That's great and all but to be honest, i was more enamored with Logan Smothers.  I am no where near a talent evaluator but it felt more to me that Smothers seemed more fluid.  Time will tell, tho.

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36 minutes ago, Dilly Dilly said:

 

That's great and all but to be honest, i was more enamored with Logan Smothers.  I am no where near a talent evaluator but it felt more to me that Smothers seemed more fluid.  Time will tell, tho.

 

I’m not worried about polish, Mario is great at honing. For as raw as McCaffrey is as a QB he throws some really accurate balls, often on the run. It’s worth looking at his senior year again.

 

Smothers is years away at this point, though I’m excited to have him committed this far out.

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1 hour ago, Mavric said:

 

 

 

Love how #52 gets beat and then throws his arms up like he was held

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as NU gets more and more speed players the QB is going to be less about talent and more about quickness with the "mind" - I'm sure the staff test the kids before they get on campus, however knowing how HS kids will adapt to the college level of speed is always a large factor.

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I think we are entering an era of most of our top rated players getting in the field eventually and contributing unless injury or off the field issues prevent it. 

 

We have a staff who will develop them with the right attitude. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, GBRFAN said:

as NU gets more and more speed players the QB is going to be less about talent and more about quickness with the "mind" - I'm sure the staff test the kids before they get on campus, however knowing how HS kids will adapt to the college level of speed is always a large factor.

 

I wouldn’t be shocked if Mario sends out one of his QB tests to high school players before he even offers a scholarship to someone.

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18 hours ago, GBRFAN said:

as NU gets more and more speed players the QB is going to be less about talent and more about quickness with the "mind" - I'm sure the staff test the kids before they get on campus, however knowing how HS kids will adapt to the college level of speed is always a large factor.

Quick decision making is a major part of QB talent. 

 

Talent will still be important. 

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Sam McKewon is really high on OT Jimmy Fritzsche.  He will need a year to add muscle and weight to his frame, but he could be a steal at the end of the recruiting cycle.

 

https://www.omaha.com/huskers/plus/mckewon-for-o-line-coach-greg-austin-restoring-huskers-pipeline/article_61dd519e-326d-580c-9504-8b0820ed15f8.html

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Atbone95 said:

Omaha World Herald pay walls really tick me off. 

McKewon has a good breakdown of Fritzsche and the recruiting class in a recent Pick 6 Podcast.  That's free if you want to listen.

 

In summary, the coaches see Fritzche as a future Left Tackle, where his athleticism, size and long arms will be great to protect the back side of the QB.  McKewon likes Benhart to end up at Right Tackle, as most teams like to run to the right side, and Benhart is the mauling run-blocker who would be perfect at RT.

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On 12/28/2018 at 11:26 AM, Decoy73 said:

Sorry, I'm not going to pencil-in anyone as a "non-contributor" before they arrive on campus.  That's just not right.  What if the recruits read this stuff?  

Hopefully it would help motivate them to prove someone wrong. 

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Seems like there has been a lull in voting, so I prepared two graphs of (1) the 247Sports Composite Ratings and (2) a confidence index from the 40 votes recorded on Huskerboard. Some surprises. In looks like our confidence in Luke McCaffrey and Ronald Thompkins is rather low (for their national ratings that is). These maybe due to demand of the position and injury history, respectively. Some real fan favorites seems to be the upside of a OL project guy like Matthew Anderson and maybe some homegrown bias with Garrett Nelson, Javin Wright (legacy more than homegrown), and Ethan Piper.

 

Even though there was 38 votes each for both Robinsons, I am a little surprised it was not unanimous for each. 

 

271374681_247Comp.png.bd91980fbd379afcdbefe6ef29b8d2ff.png

 

 

 

 

1951741044_HBCI.png.860946a9febafdbe9ce4ebba005b1866.png

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