SandhillshuskerW Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I am a high school math teacher and I had two of my stats kids do a project that focused on compiling data and using averages to make comparisons. They chose to use college football recruiting over the last 10 years, not counting this year since it's not done yet. They used 247 Sports and Rivals to average out the recruiting classes rank and then they figured out the winning percentage of all the teams over the last 10 years. They wanted to see if there was a correlation between the two. They ranked the 64 teams from the power 5 conferences and Notre Dame from 1-65 in recruiting and 1-65 in winning percentage. It was interesting to see which teams seem to be performing a lot higher than their recruiting rank and a lot lower. For the difference category, they put whether the team performed better or worse compared to their recruiting ranking. For example: Illinois ranked 55th in recruiting over the last ten years combined, but their winning percentage ranks 62nd so they are down 7 spots from where they should have been. Please let me know what you think of their findings and I will pass your comments on to them. Thanks Team Recruiting Avg. Winning % Recruiting Rank Winning % Rank Difference Illinois 53.1 34.96 55 62 Down 7 Indiana 51.8 36.89 53 61 Down 8 Iowa 44.9 63.08 47 22/23 Up 24.5 Maryland 36 39.52 34 58 Down 24 Michigan 16.7 63.28 15 21 Down 6 Michigan State 28.6 68.94 27 13 Up 14 Minnesota 51.9 48.03 54 48 Up 6 Nebraska 23.8 61.07 22 28 Down 6 Northwestern 57.3 59.69 62 32 Up 30 Ohio State 6.1 85.82 2 2 Even Penn State 23 67.44 21 15 Up 6 Purdue 57.8 34.38 64 63 Up 1 Rutgers 46.9 44.8 48 51-53 Down 4 Wisconsin 42.8 75.5 44 6 Up 38 Alabama 1.9 90.71 1 1 Even Arkansas 27.7 50.79 26 45 Down 19 Auburn 9.5 65.15 7 17 Down 10 Florida 10.2 64.84 8 18 Down 10 Georgia 7.9 71.1 6 12 Down 6 Kentucky 36.7 44.8 36 51-53 Down 16 LSU 6.4 75.19 5 7 Down 2 Ole Miss 20.7 52 20 42 Down 22 Miss. State 28.8 60.47 28 29-30 Down 1.5 Missouri 36.5 60.47 35 29-30 Down 6.5 South Carolina 17.8 62.31 17 24 Down 7 Tennessee 13.1 49.6 12 47 Down 35 Texas A&M 14.9 63.08 13 22-23 Down 9.5 Vanderbilt 48.2 41.6 50 55 Down 5 Boston College 56.3 46.83 59 49 Up 10 Clemson 15.6 80.58 14 3 Up 11 Duke 54.8 49.61 58 46 Up 12 Florida State 6.2 72.93 4 9 Down 5 Georgia Tech 49.5 56.92 51 35 Up 16 Louisville 40.4 60.16 40 31 Up 9 Miami 16.7 56.2 16 37 Down 21 NC State 44.7 56.25 46 36 Up 10 North Carolina 26.6 53.54 25 40 Down 15 Pitt 42.6 54.62 42 38 Up 4 Syracuse 57 45.97 61 50 Up 11 Virginia 42.8 37.4 43 59-60 Down 16.5 Virginia Tech 24.9 64.66 24 19 Up 5 Wake Forest 59.2 41.13 65 56 Up 9 Arizona 43.9 52.34 45 41 Up 4 Arizona State 33.9 53.91 30 39 Down 9 California 35.5 43.53 33 54 Down 21 Colorado 53.8 33.87 56 64 Down 8 Oregon 19.3 75 19 8 Up 11 Oregon State 49.8 37.4 52 59-60 Down 7.5 Stanford 24.4 76.12 23 5 Up 18 UCLA 18.3 51.94 18 43 Down 25 USC 6.1 66.41 3 16 Down 13 Utah 38.1 63.57 39 20 Up 19 Washington 29.6 62.12 29 25 Up 4 Washington State 47.4 44.8 49 51-53 Down 3 Baylor 37.8 59.38 38 33 Up 5 Iowa State 56.6 40.8 60 57 Up 3 Kansas 53.8 19.16 56 65 Down 9 Kansas State 57.4 61.72 63 26-27 Up 36.5 Oklahoma 11.8 78.95 10 4 Up 6 Oklahoma State 34.3 72.31 32 10.5 Up 22.5 TCU 34 72.31 31 10.5 Up 21.5 Texas 10.7 58.91 9 34 Down 25 Texas Tech 40.7 51.59 41 44 Down 3 West Virginia 37.2 61.72 37 26-27 Up 10.5 Notre Dame 12.5 67.97 11 14 Down 3 2 Quote Link to comment
SandhillshuskerW Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 There are definitely some teams that achieve at a much higher percentage than they should compared to their recruiting rank such as Wisconsin. I found it interesting that the SEC is all down, with the exception of Alabama. Quote Link to comment
StPaulHusker Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 College Football Playoffs: 2014-15- Oregon: Up 11 Florida St: Down 5 Ohio St: Even Alabama: Even 2015-16 Clemson: Up 11 Oklahoma: Up 6 Alabama: Even Michigan St: Up 14 2016-17 Clemson: Up 11 Ohio St: Even Alabama: Even Washington: Up 4 2017-18 Georgia: Down 6 Oklahoma: Up 6 Alabama: Even Clemson: Up 11 2018-19 Alabama: Even Oklahoma: Up 6 Clemson: Up 11 Notre Dame: Down 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment
huKSer Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, SandhillshuskerW said: There are definitely some teams that achieve at a much higher percentage than they should compared to their recruiting rank such as Wisconsin. I found it interesting that the SEC is all down, with the exception of Alabama. SEC bias Quote Link to comment
huKSer Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Recruit to a system and player development Wisconsin +38 Iowa +24.5 Kansas St +36.5 2 Quote Link to comment
SandhillshuskerW Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 They also concluded this about the conferences: The Big 12 ranked #1 because they averaged being up 6.8 spots The Big 10 ranked #2 by averaging being up 4.65 spots The ACC ranked #3 by averaging being up 2.82 spots The Pac-12 ranked #4 by averaging being down 2.5 spots The SEC ranked #5 by averaging being down 10.71 spots The Big 12 seems to get the most out of their recruits as a conference and the SEC seems to get the least out of their recruits by far as a conference. I don't know if it has to do with coaching, or if the recruit ranking system is flawed a little. Maybe a little bit of both. 1 Quote Link to comment
Mavric Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, SandhillshuskerW said: They also concluded this about the conferences: The Big 12 ranked #1 because they averaged being up 6.8 spots The Big 10 ranked #2 by averaging being up 4.65 spots The ACC ranked #3 by averaging being up 2.82 spots The Pac-12 ranked #4 by averaging being down 2.5 spots The SEC ranked #5 by averaging being down 10.71 spots The Big 12 seems to get the most out of their recruits as a conference and the SEC seems to get the least out of their recruits by far as a conference. I don't know if it has to do with coaching, or if the recruit ranking system is flawed a little. Maybe a little bit of both. Great info. Thanks for sharing. However, I’m not sure the conference info is very useful. The issue is that teams in the same conference play each other a lot so that is going to move the overall winning percentage towards .500 no matter how good or bad the team has done in recruiting. Thus, since the SEC has usually been ranked higher in the recruiting rankings, they are bound to move down in winning percentage. And since the Big XII has generally been relatively low in the recruiting rankings, that makes it easier for them to move up. So I don’t think the conference data is very useful but the individual team info is very interesting. 1 1 Quote Link to comment
SandhillshuskerW Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Mavric said: Great info. Thanks for sharing. However, I’m not sure the conference info is very useful. The issue is that teams in the same conference play each other a lot so that is going to move the overall winning percentage towards .500 no matter how good or bad the team has done in recruiting. Thus, since the SEC has usually been ranked higher in the recruiting rankings, they are bound to move down in winning percentage. And since the Big XII has generally been relatively low in the recruiting rankings, that makes it easier for them to move up. So I don’t think the conference data is very useful but the individual team info is very interesting. I told them that I thought it would be better if they could just use the non-conference games to see winning percentage vs recruiting rankings. However, you would also get in to how strong teams non-conference schedules are compared to other conferences. Quote Link to comment
SandhillshuskerW Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 This might be more relevant, they also averaged each conferences recruiting ranking and winning % ranking out and concluded this: Recruiting Ranking Winning % Ranking SEC Avg. 19.14 (1st) Avg. 28.69 (1st) Pac 12 Avg. 34 (2nd) Avg. 35.54 (4th) Big 12 Avg. 37.25 (3rd) Avg. 31.1 (2nd) Big 10 Avg. 38.29 (4th) Avg. 34.54 (3rd) ACC Avg. 39.29 (5th) Avg. 36.32 (5th) This makes it look like the Pac 12 is the conference that is really not getting the maximum out of their recruits. 1 Quote Link to comment
huKSer Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Winning % is an objective value Recruiting ranking is a subjective value I don't pay much attention to recruiting - they have done nothing at the college level. I might be inclined to look at quartiles only, giving an overall look. Quote Link to comment
Toe Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Seems like strength of schedule is the biggest thing missing, since it only looks at pure win percentage. Quote Link to comment
Cottonbowl456 Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Wisconsin was around 25 or 26th last cycle in recruiting, and 2020 is looking strong for them so far they definitely have seen an uptick in recruiting. Quote Link to comment
FrankWheeler Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cottonbowl456 said: Wisconsin was around 25 or 26th last cycle in recruiting, and 2020 is looking strong for them so far they definitely have seen an uptick in recruiting. Quote Link to comment
Cottonbowl456 Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 why just stating the truth, even though i'm a husker fan Quote Link to comment
Atbone95 Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 8 hours ago, Cottonbowl456 said: why just stating the truth, even though i'm a husker fan You're a Husker fan who appeared on the board and has used each and every one of his 7 posts to comment on Wisconsin and their success.... 4 Quote Link to comment
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