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MichiganDad3

Milto vs Martinez Year 2 Improvement

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Milton and the UCF offense showed a major improvement between year 1 and 2, but IMO much of the credit also goes to RBs, receivers & OL who understood the system much better and gave Frost more play calling options. This makes me think the improvement will be less at Nebraska. JD Speilman, Mo and Warner are the only experienced skill players returning, and if bad luck happens we may not have Mo, and JD could be hindered by concussions. Throw in a new center, and this offense does not have the same level of experience with Frost's offense as the UCF team did in year two.

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Agree.  And disagree.   Definitely need some guys to step up on both sides of the ball.  Unlike the first year at UCF, we could NOT rely on the defense while the offense figured it out.  I am hoping the D takes a huge step forward to allow time for the offense to gel.

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I agree that our D will be much improved, I just don't think the O will make the same jump that the UCF O did in year 2 because we will have too many key O players that are in year 1. I think we will be better, but the improvement will not be as dramatic as it was for UCF.

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3 minutes ago, MichiganDad3 said:

I agree that our D will be much improved, I just don't think the O will make the same jump that the UCF O did in year 2 because we will have too many key O players that are in year 1. I think we will be better, but the improvement will not be as dramatic as it was for UCF.

 

Even with their 0-12 record, they weren’t far removed from quality football.  We were so broken when Scott got here - will take more time to build than anyone wants to admit.  That said, I think the schedule this year, provided we get past CU, sets up nicely and will rocket us into 2020.

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I disagree with this sentiment. We will be a team no defense wants to face starting this year. There were already flashes a year ago despite all the early season frustration. After a year in the system and with much stronger buy in from the players I forsee us playing more consistently than last year and finishing drives with points instead of sputtering. This season we will see an offense unlike anything we have had in the past 20 years. 

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1 hour ago, MichiganDad3 said:

Milton and the UCF offense showed a major improvement between year 1 and 2, but IMO much of the credit also goes to RBs, receivers & OL who understood the system much better and gave Frost more play calling options. This makes me think the improvement will be less at Nebraska. JD Speilman, Mo and Warner are the only experienced skill players returning, and if bad luck happens we may not have Mo, and JD could be hindered by concussions. Throw in a new center, and this offense does not have the same level of experience with Frost's offense as the UCF team did in year two.

I think you can continue to try and temper your own expectations with stuff like this,  or you can relax and allow yourself to drink the kool aid.  No they aren't going 12-0, but the days of crushing disappointment are ending. 

 

Have some fun! 

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3 hours ago, MichiganDad3 said:

Milton and the UCF offense showed a major improvement between year 1 and 2, but IMO much of the credit also goes to RBs, receivers & OL who understood the system much better and gave Frost more play calling options. This makes me think the improvement will be less at Nebraska. JD Speilman, Mo and Warner are the only experienced skill players returning, and if bad luck happens we may not have Mo, and JD could be hindered by concussions. Throw in a new center, and this offense does not have the same level of experience with Frost's offense as the UCF team did in year two.

 

 

Who were UCF's great and experienced RBs, receivers and OL from their 6-7 2016 season? You can't make this point at all without talking about that. You haven't given evidence that UCF looked better prepared before the 2017 season than Nebraska does now.

 

They had no one returning from the top 100 rushers list and Tre'Quan Smith was #84 nationally for WRs (Spielman was #32 last season). Their top RB that year was Killins, a SO, and Otis Andersen a true freshmen. Their top 3 receivers were a Jr, So, Sr, the next 3 were all true freshmen. I'm looking at their 2017 roster right now and they only have 1 senior OL listed. They weren't a group of experienced veterans that were stars the previous year.

 

I"m sure there are many reasons to question whether Nebraska's going to have a good season, but this comparison doesn't work if you aren't saying anything about how good UCF's players were.

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I'm willing to listen to an argument that UCF took a big leap due to a combo of jelling and the fact the AAC is essentially a 7 on 7 league but I'm going to counter it by saying the level of offensive talent that Frost has been able to recruit to Lincoln dwarfs what Frost was able to get to UCF.  Plus, with Frost having a couple more years under his belt as a HC you'd think he's refined things a little bit to help guys get integrated faster.  The fun thing is we'll be able to see how it plays out!

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I'm optimistic that we don't necessarily need to see dramatic improvements on the field in order to realize dramatic improvements on the scoreboard and the final record. The offense was already very productive and very dangerous with a totally new system, new coaching staff, and true freshman QB. There were a lot of games where we racked up tons of yards, but not enough points to reflect the production. Finishing drives and being more consistent throughout 4 quarters will lead to more wins. With an additional year under everyone's belt, I don't think that is too tall of an order. 

 

On defense, yeah there is a lot to be desired, but they did make improvements compared to Diaco's $h!tshow from the year before. With a similar level of improvement, even if it is not incredibly dramatic, that should translate to more wins as well.

 

Overall, last year was a complete rebuild, but this year is about getting stronger, and getting more comfortable, consistent, and confident. I tend to think that minor improvements across the board, as long as everyone's head is in the game, will be enough to get us from 4 wins up to 9 or more.

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2017 UCF's strength of schedule was also far worse than our 2019 SOS.

 

Their SOS was 72nd (per Sagarin) while ours is projected at 23rd.

 

No matter how much everyone improves from last year to this year, that's going to affect final results.

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2 hours ago, knapplc said:

2017 UCF's strength of schedule was also far worse than our 2019 SOS.

 

Their SOS was 72nd (per Sagarin) while ours is projected at 23rd.

 

No matter how much everyone improves from last year to this year, that's going to affect final results.

 

 

This is true, but on paper (and I believe in reality), UCF’s talent level was quite a bit worse than Nebraska’s as well. Maybe we have too many players who haven’t shown that talent on the field yet but I trust it’s coming with the better coaching I believe they’re receiving.

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39 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

This is true, but on paper (and I believe in reality), UCF’s talent level was quite a bit worse than Nebraska’s as well. Maybe we have too many players who haven’t shown that talent on the field yet but I trust it’s coming with the better coaching I believe they’re receiving.

 

Also - as far as the QBs go - my assertion is that there are far more offensive skill guys to go around than there are really good defensive players.  So there are still some really good offensive skill guys for Group of 5 schools to get after the Power 5 schools have theirs but there are not nearly as many defensive guys.  So it's easier for smaller schools to have good offenses because the offenses have relatively more talent than the defenses they are facing.

 

That being said, I'm still expecting our offense to take another big step forward this year.

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3 hours ago, Ulty said:

I'm optimistic that we don't necessarily need to see dramatic improvements on the field in order to realize dramatic improvements on the scoreboard and the final record. The offense was already very productive and very dangerous with a totally new system, new coaching staff, and true freshman QB. There were a lot of games where we racked up tons of yards, but not enough points to reflect the production. Finishing drives and being more consistent throughout 4 quarters will lead to more wins. With an additional year under everyone's belt, I don't think that is too tall of an order. 

 

On defense, yeah there is a lot to be desired, but they did make improvements compared to Diaco's $h!tshow from the year before. With a similar level of improvement, even if it is not incredibly dramatic, that should translate to more wins as well.

 

Overall, last year was a complete rebuild, but this year is about getting stronger, and getting more comfortable, consistent, and confident. I tend to think that minor improvements across the board, as long as everyone's head is in the game, will be enough to get us from 4 wins up to 9 or more.

 

This is basically the way I feel. 

 

I expect a marginal improvement in offensive and defensive production, and really that is all that is needed to go to at least an 8 win team.  Something close to 40pts a game.  Nebraska scored 30 a game last year.  Lets add a TD to that and get to 37.  I would consider that marginal improvement.  Defensively NU was at 31.3 per game, which is pretty bad.  Lets lop a TD off of that and we are at 24.3 per game.  Again I consider that improvement to be marginal.  Those 2 improvements will pay very large in the W-L column.  

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4 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

Also - as far as the QBs go - my assertion is that there are far more offensive skill guys to go around than there are really good defensive players.  So there are still some really good offensive skill guys for Group of 5 schools to get after the Power 5 schools have theirs but there are not nearly as many defensive guys.  So it's easier for smaller schools to have good offenses because the offenses have relatively more talent than the defenses they are facing.

 

That being said, I'm still expecting our offense to take another big step forward this year.

 

I would agree with this.  The big difference between Group of 5 schools and Power 5 schools is in the linemen. The offensive and defensively linemen make a huge difference.  Lots of good skill players out there.  Lots of fast guys that can catch, throw and run.  Group of 5 guys may be a couple inches shorter and a little lighter coming out of HS, but they are still good ball players.  

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9 minutes ago, NUinID said:

 

This is basically the way I feel. 

 

I expect a marginal improvement in offensive and defensive production, and really that is all that is needed to go to at least an 8 win team.  Something close to 40pts a game.  Nebraska scored 30 a game last year.  Lets add a TD to that and get to 37.  I would consider that marginal improvement.  Defensively NU was at 31.3 per game, which is pretty bad.  Lets lop a TD off of that and we are at 24.3 per game.  Again I consider that improvement to be marginal.  Those 2 improvements will pay very large in the W-L column.  

 

If you add a TD and remove a TD in each game last year the record becomes 10-1-1 which the tie against Purdue would have been decided. So ya that improvement could make a huge difference! Ha 

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