Milto vs Martinez Year 2 Improvement

Moiraine said:
Who were UCF's great and experienced RBs, receivers and OL from their 6-7 2016 season? You can't make this point at all without talking about that. You haven't given evidence that UCF looked better prepared before the 2017 season than Nebraska does now.

They had no one returning from the top 100 rushers list and Tre'Quan Smith was #84 nationally for WRs (Spielman was #32 last season). Their top RB that year was Killins, a SO, and Otis Andersen a true freshmen. Their top 3 receivers were a Jr, So, Sr, the next 3 were all true freshmen. I'm looking at their 2017 roster right now and they only have 1 senior OL listed. They weren't a group of experienced veterans that were stars the previous year.

I"m sure there are many reasons to question whether Nebraska's going to have a good season, but this comparison doesn't work if you aren't saying anything about how good UCF's players were.
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This is a walk off home run, right here.

 
WyoHusker56 said:
If you add a TD and remove a TD in each game last year the record becomes 10-1-1 which the tie against Purdue would have been decided. So ya that improvement could make a huge difference! Ha 
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Well I know it doesn't work quite like that, but you get what I am saying.  A lot of people think Nebraska has to have this top 10 defense that is only giving up 13 a game in order to win a lot of games.  That just isn't true.  Just a little improvement can make a huge difference.  

 
Moiraine said:
This is true, but on paper (and I believe in reality), UCF’s talent level was quite a bit worse than Nebraska’s as well. Maybe we have too many players who haven’t shown that talent on the field yet but I trust it’s coming with the better coaching I believe they’re receiving.
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However to throw this in the mix - UCF beat a highly regarded, high ranked (7th) Auburn team to prove their metal.  Memphis and USF were very good teams also- ranked 16th and 22.  So they ended the year playing 3 highly regarded teams and found a way to win each one.   If NU can pull off a similar run, then I'll be impressed and believe  that we have finally returned to respectability.   UCF proved that what they might have lacked in talent, they made up with heart.     However, it still takes plenty of talent to pull off that undefeated season.  Heart alone won't defeat 3 good teams in a row. 

 
TGHusker said:
However to throw this in the mix - UCF beat a highly regarded, high ranked (7th) Auburn team to prove their metal.  Memphis and USF were very good teams also- ranked 16th and 22.  So they ended the year playing 3 highly regarded teams and found a way to win each one.   If NU can pull off a similar run, then I'll be impressed and believe  that we have finally returned to respectability.   UCF proved that what they might have lacked in talent, they made up with heart.     However, it still takes plenty of talent to pull off that undefeated season.  Heart alone won't defeat 3 good teams in a row. 
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We don’t know our roster doesn’t have players capable of things like that, after all no one knew UCF’s did. Until after the fact. They were young and coming off a losing record, just like us. Beating those teams doesn’t show they were more talented (or equally talented) than we are now because we haven’t played our season yet. I think Frost can do more with less and hopefully that’s the truth because I don’t foresee us consistently having top 10 classes.

 
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Moiraine said:
We don’t know our roster doesn’t have players capable of things like that, after all no one knew UCF’s did. Until after the fact. They were young and coming off a losing record, just like us. Beating those teams doesn’t show they were more talented (or equally talented) than we are now because we haven’t played our season yet. I think Frost can do more with less and hopefully that’s the truth because I don’t foresee us consistently having top 10 classes.
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Not saying they had more talent - just saying they weren't devoid of talent.  And yes, I hope SF can squeeze more blood out of our turnip also - others in our congress - OSU and Mich will probably always have a higher ranked class - so then it comes down the coaching and motivation and desire to be consistently on top. 

 
The OP's theory actually isn't that bad. It's pretty much a hodge podge roster right now heading into year 2 with some leftovers from Riley that honestly aren't very talented / some really, really good incoming true freshmen / some guys that redshirted last year that are honestly just total unknowns one way or the other.

If Duvall & Greg Austin can get our big guys into that nasty, gritty mindset headed into September and Martinez has time to throw the ball, we will seriously destroy probably 8 out of the 12 teams on our schedule with a floor of a nine win season. If they don't...Martinez isn't going to just dance around and win games all by himself, no matter how badly the fan base wants to believe that.

 
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My original post was not about talent or how good we will be this year. There was a lot of talk about how much Milton improver from yesterday one to year two. My guess is that much of the improvement was because it was year two for most of the offence at UCF. If we lose Mo, we could have a true freshman starting RB, it look like we will have a freshman center, and we may have a couple true freshman WRs get substantial playing time. If this is year one in the offence for several players, Frost cannot use the entire playbook, and there will be mental breakdowns. I just do not expect Nebraska's improvement from year one to year two to be as dramatic as it was at UCF. 

 
MichiganDad3 said:
My original post was not about talent or how good we will be this year. There was a lot of talk about how much Milton improved from year one to year two. My guess is that much of the improvement was because it was year two for most of the offence at UCF.
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I getcha. Although, individual improvement for Milton/Martinez is of course related to but also quite different than dissecting the offense's overall improvement for both teams.

I'll mainly be measuring Marinez's improvement by looking at completion percentage (which honestly was already insanely good in year one),  reading defenders a bit better so as to not throw into coverage, and making good calls on zone read running plays. Those pretty much mainly are analyzed in a vacuum by themselves except for offensive line play. If the line doesn't hold up, it's hard to blame the quarterback as much.

So personally I see that as being a much bigger factor than the skill players around Martinez in the context of Martinez's continue development. But, all of your points make sense.

 
MichiganDad3 said:
My original post was not about talent or how good we will be this year. There was a lot of talk about how much Milton improver from yesterday one to year two. My guess is that much of the improvement was because it was year two for most of the offence at UCF. If we lose Mo, we could have a true freshman starting RB, it look like we will have a freshman center, and we may have a couple true freshman WRs get substantial playing time. If this is year one in the offence for several players, Frost cannot use the entire playbook, and there will be mental breakdowns. I just do not expect Nebraska's improvement from year one to year two to be as dramatic as it was at UCF. 
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You’re still lacking good reasoning for the comparison. You’re comparing our potential improvement to how much UCF improved. UCF had the same “problems” you’re pointing out about Nebraska.

 
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MichiganDad3 said:
My original post was not about talent or how good we will be this year. There was a lot of talk about how much Milton improver from yesterday one to year two. My guess is that much of the improvement was because it was year two for most of the offence at UCF. If we lose Mo, we could have a true freshman starting RB, it look like we will have a freshman center, and we may have a couple true freshman WRs get substantial playing time. If this is year one in the offence for several players, Frost cannot use the entire playbook, and there will be mental breakdowns. I just do not expect Nebraska's improvement from year one to year two to be as dramatic as it was at UCF. 
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Here's a 2017 preview for UCF, I think you are overestimating what they had going into the season.  

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/4/25/15400678/central-florida-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

Biggest question mark: How much can an offense improve in one offseason? Because the Knights’ attack was really young and bad.
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Meanwhile, the Knights’ offense was nearly nonexistent. UCF improved only from 126th to 117th in Off. S&P+, but they did so with a freshman quarterback, freshman running back, and mostly sophomores in the receiving corps. Oh, and a few freshmen and sophomores up front.
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MichiganDad3 said:
Milton and the UCF offense showed a major improvement between year 1 and 2, but IMO much of the credit also goes to RBs, receivers & OL who understood the system much better and gave Frost more play calling options. This makes me think the improvement will be less at Nebraska. JD Speilman, Mo and Warner are the only experienced skill players returning, and if bad luck happens we may not have Mo, and JD could be hindered by concussions. Throw in a new center, and this offense does not have the same level of experience with Frost's offense as the UCF team did in year two.
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Don't necessarily agree.

You're assuming that just because a player doesn't have game experience, they are going to come into the season as green to the system as the starters last year.  That simply isn't the case.  ALL players (starters and backups) will have been in the system for two full springs, a season and two fall camps.  That is very very different than the entire team coming into spring and fall camp not even knowing what they are supposed to do in drills....etc.

 
MichiganDad3 said:
My original post was not about talent or how good we will be this year. There was a lot of talk about how much Milton improver from yesterday one to year two. My guess is that much of the improvement was because it was year two for most of the offence at UCF. If we lose Mo, we could have a true freshman starting RB, it look like we will have a freshman center, and we may have a couple true freshman WRs get substantial playing time. If this is year one in the offence for several players, Frost cannot use the entire playbook, and there will be mental breakdowns. I just do not expect Nebraska's improvement from year one to year two to be as dramatic as it was at UCF. 
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RB is hands-down the easiest position to play right away.  See Washington last year.  WR is also not that hard to pick up because you can rotate a lot of guys.

IMO, the biggest question-mark on the offense would be center.  I'm a big fan of Jurgens but he's switching positions and has battled injuries.  I think we'll be fine against the bottom half of the schedule but we'll see how he does against the top of the B1G.

All that being said, I think the biggest thing that will help this year will be the overall familiarity with the system compared to last year.  Even if there are some new guys still picking it up you have most of the two-deep at both QB and OL up to speed.  So they won't be spending time teaching everyone everything.  Most of the guys will be completely up to speed with what's going on and the new guys can work their way in as they learn on the fly.  That will mean more and better reps for everyone.

 
The offensive line is what scares me the most this year; if they gel, I think we'll be fine. 

I'd also argue that Adrian is a better QB than Milton; at the very least, he's got much more potential. 

 
Mavric said:
RB is hands-down the easiest position to play right away.  See Washington last year.  WR is also not that hard to pick up because you can rotate a lot of guys.

IMO, the biggest question-mark on the offense would be center.  I'm a big fan of Jurgens but he's switching positions and has battled injuries.  I think we'll be fine against the bottom half of the schedule but we'll see how he does against the top of the B1G.

All that being said, I think the biggest thing that will help this year will be the overall familiarity with the system compared to last year.  Even if there are some new guys still picking it up you have most of the two-deep at both QB and OL up to speed.  So they won't be spending time teaching everyone everything.  Most of the guys will be completely up to speed with what's going on and the new guys can work their way in as they learn on the fly.  That will mean more and better reps for everyone.
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I hope you are right. If we lose Mo, then for skill players only JD and Warner return. Our RS freshman should know the system, but they did not benefit from 12 games of live action. I still think we will be improved, just not as much as UCF in year two.

 
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