Mandel’s Mailbag: What are realistic expectations for Nebraska in Scott Frost’s second season?

[Saunders]

Quote

 

Phil Steele has Nebraska as his No. 1 most improved team in his 2019 college football preview and has the Huskers winning the Big Ten West. I love what coach Scott Frost is doing, but I’m also trying to temper my expectations a bit after how last season started. What are your realistic expectations for how Nebraska will do this season?

Mike T., North Canton, Ohio

 

I love Phil, but that’s kind of a layup, no? Of course the blue-blood program that went 4-8 last season but is entering its second season under a widely renowned new coach is likely to be the most improved team. And sure, why not pick Nebraska to win the Big Ten West considering the team that did it last year, Northwestern, went 9-5 and needed a miracle comeback to survive the then-winless Huskers?

 

https://www.huskerboard.com/index.php?/forum/1-husker-football/&do=add

 

[NUinID]

So basically Stewie thinks it is low hanging fruit.  I guess I disagree.  I think the B1G West is wide open.  I would probably give the nod to Iowa as the favorite right now.  

[broganreynik]

So... he didn’t answer the question?

[Cdog923]

Just now, broganreynik said:

So... he didn’t answer the question?

 

Classic Mandel. 

[Toe]

" I’ll get into Nebraska in a second, but first let me just say I believe that division will be a lot..." Aaand the rest is paywalled.

 

https://theathletic.com/1035565/2019/06/19/stewart-mandel-mailbag-nebraska-expectations-scott-frost-year-2/

[Saunders]

He did answer it, but we don't post the whole thing because that's frowned upon. You can grab a 1 year sub for under $4 a month, and it's worth it IMO.

 

Edit: Under $3 a month right now: 

 

 

[WyoHusker56]

You can download The Athletic app and you get two free articles per month. That's what I did. 

[brophog]

4 hours ago, NUinID said:

So basically Stewie thinks it is low hanging fruit.  I guess I disagree.  I think the B1G West is wide open.  I would probably give the nod to Iowa as the favorite right now.  

 

No one is giving Iowa much credit because they actually play a schedule this year. First two are against Michigan and Penn St, followed by home against Purdue then at Wisconsin and at Northwestern.

 

I totally agree that the west is wide open. I even feel Illinois may be improved. Purdue and Minnesota aren’t talked about nearly as much as they should be. That’s why Nebraska is a popular pick, though; that year 2 bump combined with the schedule.

[NUinID]

11 minutes ago, brophog said:

 

No one is giving Iowa much credit because they actually play a schedule this year. First two are against Michigan and Penn St, followed by home against Purdue then at Wisconsin and at Northwestern.

 

I totally agree that the west is wide open. I even feel Illinois may be improved. Purdue and Minnesota aren’t talked about nearly as much as they should be. That’s why Nebraska is a popular pick, though; that year 2 bump combined with the schedule.

 

Oh yeah, I think Illinois will be better, I just don't know how much better.  I actually think Purdue takes a little step back.  The QB they have coming back is not as good as the other one was.  

[brophog]

1 hour ago, NUinID said:

I actually think Purdue takes a little step back. 

 

Defensively is where they get interesting. They made their year 1 jump on that side. It’s usually the easier side to quick fix, but they had a sizable amount of roster turnover from year 1 to year 2 and saw a pretty big slip. Recruiting has been good there, though, so it’ll be interesting to see how a more talented but younger roster can do. 

 

Purdue is a bit of a mystery to me. I had a really good insight into them year 1, so year 2 went how I thought (better play, but similar record). This year, I don’t know. Brohm has done a remarkable job, the university has seriously ramped up their support, their east side schedule is even more favorable than ours...but they get little hype. I think everyone is in a holding pattern where they want to believe, but Purdue has to play more consistent. 

 

We’ll see on QB. I don’t see Sindelar playing all season. 

 

[Salsa Red]

3 hours ago, brophog said:

 

Defensively is where they get interesting. They made their year 1 jump on that side. It’s usually the easier side to quick fix, but they had a sizable amount of roster turnover from year 1 to year 2 and saw a pretty big slip. Recruiting has been good there, though, so it’ll be interesting to see how a more talented but younger roster can do. 

 

Purdue is a bit of a mystery to me. I had a really good insight into them year 1, so year 2 went how I thought (better play, but similar record). This year, I don’t know. Brohm has done a remarkable job, the university has seriously ramped up their support, their east side schedule is even more favorable than ours...but they get little hype. I think everyone is in a holding pattern where they want to believe, but Purdue has to play more consistent. 

 

We’ll see on QB. I don’t see Sindelar playing all season. 

 

The way their year ended with the annihilation from auburn and losing 5 of their last 6 probably puts the dampers in peoples minds. Auburn called the dogs at half, they could have scored 100 if they wanted. They peaked in their win over ohio state.

[whateveritis1224]

5 hours ago, brophog said:

 

Defensively is where they get interesting. They made their year 1 jump on that side. It’s usually the easier side to quick fix, but they had a sizable amount of roster turnover from year 1 to year 2 and saw a pretty big slip. Recruiting has been good there, though, so it’ll be interesting to see how a more talented but younger roster can do. 

 

Purdue is a bit of a mystery to me. I had a really good insight into them year 1, so year 2 went how I thought (better play, but similar record). This year, I don’t know. Brohm has done a remarkable job, the university has seriously ramped up their support, their east side schedule is even more favorable than ours...but they get little hype. I think everyone is in a holding pattern where they want to believe, but Purdue has to play more consistent. 

 

We’ll see on QB. I don’t see Sindelar playing all season. 

 

Rondale is great, but without Blough you have to wonder how great a season he would have had. Blough was sneakily probably the 2nd best QB in the Big 10 last year after Haskins. He was the reason they were able to get back into the Northwestern game at the beginning of the year. Sindelar seems to be a QB that has all the tools, but can't put it together in crunchtime.

 

Who knows with Iowa, but the way they kicked our butt on the lines makes me not as confident (though the rest of their skill players seem average at best without two 1st round tight ends).

 

Wisconsin has Taylor and that's it on offense. Defense they always seem solid.

 

Illinois might be improved, but they still have a ways to go.

 

Minnesota also, but they're a lot closer than Illinois.

 

Northwestern got really lucky last year in a few games and now Thortson is gone I have a feeling they're going to take a step back, but still be a solid, well coached team.

 

Biggest worry for Nebraska is how we're going to replace Morgan and Ozigbo. I think the defense is going to take a step forward in year 2

 

This is my entirely uninformed opinion.

[jager]

Minnesota could be real good. Look at how they played at the end of the season last year.

[brophog]

32 minutes ago, whateveritis1224 said:

Northwestern got really lucky last year in a few games 

 

And the three years before that. Their bill is so far past due no one is even collecting on it anymore.

 

2 hours ago, Salsa Red said:

The way their year ended with the annihilation from auburn and losing 5 of their last 6 probably puts the dampers in peoples minds. Auburn called the dogs at half, they could have scored 100 if they wanted. They peaked in their win over ohio state.

 

Sure, and that colors a lot of the preseason picks, but not the ones that dig deeper. Purdue is being picked in some cases 6th in what is regarded as a 6 team division. I understand there is a substantial argument to be made that 6th in this group may be tied for 2nd. It certainly could be a division where order doesn’t matter much. Still, early picks are closer to the bottom than the top.

 

If I had to go on instincts, I’d pick Purdue as the most likely to defy expectations, assuming this trend continues. They have some question marks, but a ton of upside.

 

They also have as favorable of a schedule as any in the division, with some of their tougher games being deceptive. Crossovers are at PSU, but home to Maryland and Indiana. They do go to Northwestern, but NW is a team where venue rarely seems to matter. They go to Iowa, but get them in the middle of that aforementioned 5 game gauntlet. They get Nebraska at home, which given the early picks for Nebraska should mean something. That leaves at Wisconsin, whom they get after a bye.

 

Their more winnable games are at home, and most of their road games have qualifying factors to partially offset that disadvantage. 

[brophog]

48 minutes ago, jager said:

Minnesota could be real good. Look at how they played at the end of the season last year.

 

 Had any other of the top 6 finished like that with their upcoming schedule, and maybe even Minnesota minus the tugboat captain at the helm....this is easily the consensus favorite. Nebraska has a favorable schedule, as does Purdue, but nobody has as soft of one as Minnesota.

 

The only thing I don’t like about it, particularly for Minnesota specifically, is that it’s backloaded. The last four are PSU/NW/Iowa/Wisc. What has happened the last few years is they play this super soft non-con, think they’re something, then crash back down to earth. 

 

I’ll say this about their finish last year: Yes, after the changes made after Illinois, they did play better. They also faced some teams where either injuries and/or apathy had set in. They were able to get into positions where they didnt have to throw the ball. They only had 1 turnover in the final 3 wins, while collecting 6. But there are two things that really make me question how much of this improvement they can take forward: opposing QB completion rate was still high (over 65% aside from the non-passers at GT) and they played against Purdue and NW whom neither could run the ball against anyone else. They improved those two areas to where they’d be expected to be, which is way better than it was, but maybe not necessarily a sign they’re about to take off.

 

Still, they’ve been playing with a lot of youth that will take that experience with them, making Minnesota a very interesting team this year.