Holy $#@& Phil Steele

[84HuskerLaw]

There are so many unknowns at this point in time, it seems like gut hunch and wild guesswork is about all you can really do in trying to predict NU season this fall.   Lest we forget, last fall we started out 0-6!   Almost nobody would have predicted that, particularly with the supposed good play by Adrian.   There is such a fine line between winning close games and losing them when the talent is relatively even and the weather, injuries, and many other factors come into play.   

 

The team played much better overall the second half of the season but still only managed to win 4 of 6.   The jump from 4 -8 to 8-4 is quite dramatic in some ways and in others can come down to perhaps a couple dozen critical plays and situations.   

 

The roster change has been as big as perhaps any NU's had in a several decades.   This alone, arguably, can be either positive or negative in terms of impact on the season.  We will be very inexperienced in a number of key areas (kicking, O line, LBs, WRs and RB).   We hope we have recruited more talent but that talent has yet to be seen or proven in any tangible collegiate level.

 

The QB position ought to be much improved - depth wise atleast - so the fear of losing Adrian to injury should be greatly reduced.   In turn, hopefully, we can fully utilize Adrian in the running game and he can play like there's no tomorrow in a sense, getting those extra yards we always need, to have him be the difference maker we all want him to be.   

 

Will our RB recruits shine ?   Chances are pretty good we will need two besides Mo Washington to perform somewhere near the Ozigbo level if we are to have the kind of running game we need to make the offense run at the 10 win level.  Its a rare season when one tailback lasts the season without injury.  

 

WRs as a group need to really step up more than any other group for the Frost offense to really click and keep those LBs and DBs away from the run defense.

 

Kicking game:  Talent is unproven and very young / inexperienced and must make big strides in both returning kicks and covering them as well.  A reliable punter who can kick 45 yards in the right direction will do wonders but we need to block for him and pressure the opponent kickers a lot more than we have for the past decade.

 

Pass rush =  got to be much better in the obvious 3rd and longs so we prevent those drive saving first downs when we do get the opponent in a bad down/distance.   We've struggled with that one for a decade or so as well.  

 

Health and conditioning ought to be much better by Sept 1 so no excuses there.   We may not be 100% of what Frost considers 'there' but we should be close enough that we won't be losing many games because we a fat, slow, weak and out of shape. 

 

Penalties and officiating and weather and the other 'wild cards' of football generally are always unknowns that often tip a couple games one way or the other.  We need good luck and lots more of it than we've enjoyed in many seasons if we are to have a 10 win season.   Don't count on it.

 

Thus, 7 or 8 wins is probably a reasonable 'in the middle' guess.   I am going to hope for more but I will not be really disappointed it we manage to win a majority with a good bowl performance to finish things off.   

[bugeater17]

2 hours ago, 84HuskerLaw said:

There are so many unknowns at this point in time, it seems like gut hunch and wild guesswork is about all you can really do in trying to predict NU season this fall.   Lest we forget, last fall we started out 0-6!   Almost nobody would have predicted that, particularly with the supposed good play by Adrian.   There is such a fine line between winning close games and losing them when the talent is relatively even and the weather, injuries, and many other factors come into play.   

 

The team played much better overall the second half of the season but still only managed to win 4 of 6.   The jump from 4 -8 to 8-4 is quite dramatic in some ways and in others can come down to perhaps a couple dozen critical plays and situations.   

 

The roster change has been as big as perhaps any NU's had in a several decades.   This alone, arguably, can be either positive or negative in terms of impact on the season.  We will be very inexperienced in a number of key areas (kicking, O line, LBs, WRs and RB).   We hope we have recruited more talent but that talent has yet to be seen or proven in any tangible collegiate level.

 

The QB position ought to be much improved - depth wise atleast - so the fear of losing Adrian to injury should be greatly reduced.   In turn, hopefully, we can fully utilize Adrian in the running game and he can play like there's no tomorrow in a sense, getting those extra yards we always need, to have him be the difference maker we all want him to be.   

 

Will our RB recruits shine ?   Chances are pretty good we will need two besides Mo Washington to perform somewhere near the Ozigbo level if we are to have the kind of running game we need to make the offense run at the 10 win level.  Its a rare season when one tailback lasts the season without injury.  

 

WRs as a group need to really step up more than any other group for the Frost offense to really click and keep those LBs and DBs away from the run defense.

 

Kicking game:  Talent is unproven and very young / inexperienced and must make big strides in both returning kicks and covering them as well.  A reliable punter who can kick 45 yards in the right direction will do wonders but we need to block for him and pressure the opponent kickers a lot more than we have for the past decade.

 

Pass rush =  got to be much better in the obvious 3rd and longs so we prevent those drive saving first downs when we do get the opponent in a bad down/distance.   We've struggled with that one for a decade or so as well.  

 

Health and conditioning ought to be much better by Sept 1 so no excuses there.   We may not be 100% of what Frost considers 'there' but we should be close enough that we won't be losing many games because we a fat, slow, weak and out of shape. 

 

Penalties and officiating and weather and the other 'wild cards' of football generally are always unknowns that often tip a couple games one way or the other.  We need good luck and lots more of it than we've enjoyed in many seasons if we are to have a 10 win season.   Don't count on it.

 

Thus, 7 or 8 wins is probably a reasonable 'in the middle' guess.   I am going to hope for more but I will not be really disappointed it we manage to win a majority with a good bowl performance to finish things off.   

 

Yes - officiating and weather will be key in turning it around this year.

[thatguy]

On 6/21/2019 at 7:27 AM, Red Five said:

Get the D right and 10-2 is attainable imo.

agreed. the linebacking corps is the question mark on this whole squad. i'm really worried about the OLB spot.

[Moiraine]

13 hours ago, bugeater17 said:

 

Yes - officiating and weather will be key in turning it around this year.

 

 

I mean, it is funny, but weather may actually have cost us games last season.

[WyoHusker56]

1 hour ago, thatguy said:

agreed. the linebacking corps is the question mark on this whole squad. i'm really worried about the OLB spot.

 

Linebacking is a question mark outside of Mo. I am pretty sure that dude is going to eat someone this year. Man he's scary! 

[Landlord]

1 hour ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

I mean, it is funny, but weather may actually have cost us games last season.

 

 

If the first game wasn't canceled I bet we would've went 7-6/8-5 last season.

[Moiraine]

4 minutes ago, Landlord said:

If the first game wasn't canceled I bet we would've went 7-6/8-5 last season.

 

Not sure if you’re joking since you used bad grammar and that’s unlike you, but I think we would’ve beaten Colorado. Hard to tell how that would’ve changed the psyche of the team and affected the other games. However maybe it was better for the team going forward to hit rock bottom.

 

I think the eyerollers must not know the difference between may and would have, or the difference between an excuse and a factor. 

[teachercd]

I know the weather impacted my liver.

[Toe]

I still don't think it's a given that we would have beaten Akron. They did beat Northwestern (eventual B1G West champ) just a couple weeks later. Yeah, we should have beaten them, but there was still a lot of mess being cleaned up with the team at that time. I mean, we should have beaten Colorado - we were the better team on the field for about 58 minutes of the game, and it wasn't particularly close. But boy did we ever stink things up in those other two minutes...

[NUinID]

21 minutes ago, Toe said:

I still don't think it's a given that we would have beaten Akron. They did beat Northwestern (eventual B1G West champ) just a couple weeks later. Yeah, we should have beaten them, but there was still a lot of mess being cleaned up with the team at that time. I mean, we should have beaten Colorado - we were the better team on the field for about 58 minutes of the game, and it wasn't particularly close. But boy did we ever stink things up in those other two minutes...

 

Akron winning that game was very weird. NW did everything they could to lose.  Akron scored 3 defensive TD in the second half. 

[Toe]

@NUinID Sure, but we were kinda doing everything we could to lose too, early last season. Sooo many turnovers and penalties.

[Moiraine]

42 minutes ago, Toe said:

I still don't think it's a given that we would have beaten Akron. They did beat Northwestern (eventual B1G West champ) just a couple weeks later. Yeah, we should have beaten them, but there was still a lot of mess being cleaned up with the team at that time. I mean, we should have beaten Colorado - we were the better team on the field for about 58 minutes of the game, and it wasn't particularly close. But boy did we ever stink things up in those other two minutes...

 

 

We might’ve lost to Akron but even then, playing that game might’ve helped us to beat Colorado.

[Ziebol]

59 minutes ago, Toe said:

@NUinID Sure, but we were kinda doing everything we could to lose too, early last season. Sooo many turnovers and penalties.

Don't remind me of those penalties. Shudders.

[Toe]

3 hours ago, Moiraine said:

We might’ve lost to Akron but even then, playing that game might’ve helped us to beat Colorado.

 

Yeah, that's plausible. Maybe with a win to start the season and little more game experience ahead of Colorado, things would've snowballed and some of those close losses could've turned into close wins. I was saying as much during the season. My point is that it's also plausible that we would've ultimately ended up 3-9 if we'd played Akron.

[Landlord]

5 hours ago, Moiraine said:

 

Not sure if you’re joking since you used bad grammar and that’s unlike you, but I think we would’ve beaten Colorado. Hard to tell how that would’ve changed the psyche of the team and affected the other games. However maybe it was better for the team going forward to hit rock bottom.

 

I think the eyerollers must not know the difference between may and would have, or the difference between an excuse and a factor. 

 

 

I wasn't joking and the bad grammar is probably just my brain turning to mush as I approach 30

 

But I think we beat Akron that first game, and iron out some jitters and kinks to make the Colorado game a more manageable outing and win that one. I think that leads to us beating Troy, either because Adrian doesn't get hurt when we were down late or because we've got two wins confidence and experience even if Bunch is playing. Then I think we win Northwestern (that game was more of a mental struggle with the players still not having won a game yet, imo), and I think a decent chance at Wisconsin or Iowa as well.