ESPN: Which coach is ready to make the Year 2 leap?

[Saunders]

Quote

 

Most of the teams in college football's preseason top 10 have experienced the "second-year leap" at some point over the past 20 years.

 

During that span, Nick Saban at Alabama, Kirby Smart (and Mark Richt) at Georgia, Bob Stoops at Oklahoma, Jim Tressel at Ohio State and Urban Meyer at Florida all saw massive success in their second season in charge. And just last year, LSU earned its first top-10 finish in seven seasons under Ed Orgeron, and Texas earned its first in nine years under Tom Herman; both were second-year coaches.

 

There is a broader statistical angle to this effect, as well: If a head coach is going to see a leap, it's probably going to happen pretty quickly after his hire. Over the past 10 seasons, 23 teams have seen their S&P+ rating improve by 18 points per game in a single season. Eighteen of those teams were led by a head coach in either his first, second or third season at the helm. And among that range, the second year is the most likely chance at improvement.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27346872/which-coach-ready-make-year-2-leap

 

 

[brophog]

The more we see of the defensive line, the more I think the addition of Tuioti may be one of those unaccounted factors in an article like this.

 

But I also have a general problem with “replacement arguments” because of the natural assumption of a drop off. At a position like safety, for instance, I think we will see a massive increase in playmaking ability. That’s the thing with a defense that has been this bad, there is a lot of head room for improvement, and that’s a side of the ball where huge improvements are not uncommon.

 

 

[Undone]

30 minutes ago, brophog said:

At a position like safety, for instance, I think we will see a massive increase in playmaking ability. That’s the thing with a defense that has been this bad, there is a lot of head room for improvement, and that’s a side of the ball where huge improvements are not uncommon.

 

brophog, this was the Kool-Aid I needed this morning.   

 

I really like coach Fisher. You can tell he's focused and he doesn't f*** around. If we're being objective, I think it's fair to say that several of our position coaches are unknowns, and we'll see where improvement is found in the various groups.

 

But I like what I've seen from Fisher and primary set of guys that look to be the starters in the secondary seem to be on the same page from the interviews I've seen this summer so far and I'm excited. 

[BIG ERN]

36 minutes ago, brophog said:

The more we see of the defensive line, the more I think the addition of Tuioti may be one of those unaccounted factors in an article like this.

 

But I also have a general problem with “replacement arguments” because of the natural assumption of a drop off. At a position like safety, for instance, I think we will see a massive increase in playmaking ability. That’s the thing with a defense that has been this bad, there is a lot of head room for improvement, and that’s a side of the ball where huge improvements are not uncommon.

 

 

Not to mention he was under Justin Wilcox who runs a proven 3-4 defense. I think he is underrated in that department, was DC at Wisconsin in 2016 as well who was a top 5 defense in the nation. 

[Nebfanatic]

3 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

brophog, this was the Kool-Aid I needed this morning.   

 

I really like coach Fisher. You can tell he's focused and he doesn't f*** around. If we're being objective, I think it's fair to say that several of our position coaches are unknowns, and we'll see where improvement is found in the various groups.

 

But I like what I've seen from Fisher and primary set of guys that look to be the starters in the secondary seem to be on the same page from the interviews I've seen this summer so far and I'm excited. 

It helps that our last set of safeties kind of sucked to put it bluntly and our upcoming guys have a good amount of talent and in a guy like D Wills case, better production than last years starters.

[Undone]

14 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

It helps that our last set of safeties kind of sucked to put it bluntly and our upcoming guys have a good amount of talent and in a guy like D Wills case, better production than last years starters.

 

It's kind of hard to define "suck" at the safety position. Aaron Williams and Antonio Reed weren't particularly slow or bad tacklers or anything. To me, more often than not they just didn't know where to be as different kinds of plays would develop.

 

We saw that play out so negatively on 3rd and longs; thought I was going to have a stroke so many times last year. Those guys were the product of bad coaching when they were coming up. Are Deontai and Dismuke that much better than those two guys? I don't know. What I saw out there was mainly confusion and a lack of motivation in games 1-6.

[Nebfanatic]

21 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

It's kind of hard to define "suck" at the safety position. Aaron Williams and Antonio Reed weren't particularly slow or bad tacklers or anything. To me, more often than not they just didn't know where to be as different kinds of plays would develop.

 

We saw that play out so negatively on 3rd and longs; thought I was going to have a stroke so many times last year. Those guys were the product of bad coaching when they were coming up. Are Deontai and Dismuke that much better than those two guys? I don't know. What I saw out there was mainly confusion and a lack of motivation in games 1-6.

Deontai played better than those two last year so I'm going to say yes. As for the rest of your post you convieniently leave out Neal who was on the field alot last year. He was kind of slow and generally not very good. We will be better at S this year and you can take that to the bank.

[BIG ERN]

5 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

Deontai played better than those two last year so I'm going to say yes. As for the rest of your post you convieniently leave out Neal who was on the field alot last year. He was kind of slow and generally not very good. We will be better at S this year and you can take that to the bank.

Neal, Williams, and Reed were cheeks. I mean A. Will alone let Flynn Nagel go for over 200 receiving yards 

[Undone]

10 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

As for the rest of your post you convieniently leave out Neal who was on the field alot last year. He was kind of slow and generally not very good.

 

Nope - wasn't intentional. I agree that he's not a burner.

 

Thare are the two things that make for struggles in a safety: Being slow and being a poor tackler. But, good coaching that translates into knowing where to be on any given play is huge. I expect to see better things with that group this season. If we don't I'll be surprised.

[Husker in WI]

1 minute ago, BIG ERN said:

Neal, Williams, and Reed were cheeks. I mean A. Will alone let Flynn Nagel go for over 200 receiving yards 

 

I still put a lot of that on the coaches. There are a lot of decent safeties who shouldn't be matched up one on one with receivers consistently, and they didn't adjust. From what I remember one of the freshman was supposed to play that role against NW and got hurt early, which is why it fell to Williams. But at least by the last drive, whether it's Fisher just subbing someone else in or Chinander making different calls, they needed to adjust and didn't.

 

But more to your point, we shouldn't have a problem moving forward with our safeties being unable to man up from time to time. None of our regulars last year were particularly athletic, we'll at least be faster this year. Nobody is asking them to cover Rondale Moore one on one, but having safeties who can cover other receivers man to man is big.

[WyoHusker56]

I think it's interesting he makes it seem like a Milton level jump from Martinez is out of reach. Milton as a Freshman threw for 1,983 yards at a 57% completion rating and 10 TDs. Martinez as a Freshman threw for 2,617 yards at a 64% completion rate for 17 TDs. A "Milton-ian leap from Martinez" would consist of Martinez throwing for 1,400 more yards and 20 more TDs with a 3% completion improvement. While that is definitely a jump, it's a much smaller jump than Milton made and Martinez missed a full game and half, had a zero offensive game against MSU and didn't get the benefit of a conference championship game. That jump for Martinez is not that far out.

 

The pass rush is a major question mark that may not improve even with a better DL play, but I think the secondary should improve and replacing Morgan and Zig while big seems less insurmountable when you factor in Frost's offense moving the ball around a lot and that production being realistically replaced by 4-5 players and not 2.

[Xmas32]

I'm cautiously optimistic if nothing else due to the continuity factor of the coaching staff and the players are on year 2 of hearing largely the same message.  Outside of losing Dawson, everyone is back and I like Tuoti due to his pedigree at Cal and other stops.  I think that's one thing that's made Clemson so successful (outside of the obvious) is the fact their top coaches (OCs and DC) have all been together for a few years now.  

[BIG ERN]

23 minutes ago, Husker in WI said:

 

I still put a lot of that on the coaches. There are a lot of decent safeties who shouldn't be matched up one on one with receivers consistently, and they didn't adjust. From what I remember one of the freshman was supposed to play that role against NW and got hurt early, which is why it fell to Williams. But at least by the last drive, whether it's Fisher just subbing someone else in or Chinander making different calls, they needed to adjust and didn't.

 

But more to your point, we shouldn't have a problem moving forward with our safeties being unable to man up from time to time. None of our regulars last year were particularly athletic, we'll at least be faster this year. Nobody is asking them to cover Rondale Moore one on one, but having safeties who can cover other receivers man to man is big.

I yelled many times at the TV to switch the coverage or sub him out. I think D Will is very underrated and we will see him shine this year 

[brophog]

28 minutes ago, Husker in WI said:

Nobody is asking them to cover Rondale Moore one on one, but having safeties who can cover other receivers man to man is big.

 

With today’s offenses demanding so much Cover 0/1 if you can’t do that then you really can’t play the position. Fisher cross trains everyone.

[TGHusker]

The portion of the article on Nebraska was a bit under-whelming in my opinion.  We WILL see improvement on all three levels of the D.  The D line improvement alone I suspect will close the gap on much of our deficiencies last year.  Adding Mills &  Wan'dale will offset  much of the loss on the O side  plus our line will not only be better but much deeper.  Yes we lost Morgan and OZ but I think overall with the maturation of AM, we will not see a drop off.  So give me some     Do I think we go 13-0 - no --but I think we are 8-4 or better  (I'm thinking 10-2)