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Find five more wins on our schedule


knapplc

Find Five Wins  

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I'm hoping this topic looks silly at the end of November, but it's worth asking about.

 

We're 2-1 on the season. We NEED to get to a bowl game this year. The premise of this thread is that a 6-6 season won't guarantee a bowl bid. We need seven wins.

 

That said, where are the other five wins on the schedule? How hard will it be to get there? Or if this is crazy-pants talk, tell me we've got this in the bag.

 

 

For the record, based on the first 1/4 of the season, I see it panning out like this:

 

Illinois - Win

Ohio State - Loss

Northwestern - Win

Minnesota - Win

Indiana - Win

Purdue - Win

Wisconsin - Loss

Maryland - Win

Iowa - Loss

 

I have pretty good confidence picking wins for:  Illinois, Minnesota, and Indiana.  Illinois being the most confident, with Minnesota and Indiana being basically "pretty sure." I think we out-talent these teams enough that unless we royally screw up, we're not going to lose.

 

I have pretty good confidence picking losses against: Ohio State, Wisconsin & Iowa. The Buckeyes just have too much talent, and Day has gotten their ducks in a row after last year's curious malaise under Urban. I think Wisconsin & Iowa are still just too good at what they do, too good at playing error-free ball, and too good at finishing games for me to be confident in a win. But I'm less confident we'll lose to these two than to Ohio State.

 

That leaves Northwestern, Purdue and Maryland. I think we can beat all of these teams - should beat them. But nothing is ever easy against Northwestern, and we've lost to them three of the last four years. With Purdue, I'm just more confident in what Brohm is doing there than I am with what Fleck is doing at Minnesota, and that gives me pause. Plus with it being a road game just before Wisconsin, maybe we overlook them. Still, we have a Bye between Purdue & Wisconsin, so maybe that's an unwarranted fear.  With Maryland, I just don't know what we're going to see. I don't know how they score 60+ points against two early victims, then lose to Temple. Which team do we see? I think we win, but this is also a potential look-ahead game to Iowa, who comes to Lincoln just six days after this game.

 

So, basically, I have five wins in the bag - the two we already have, plus Illinois, Minnesota & Indiana. Maybe a couple more from Northwestern, Purdue & Maryland.

 

I think we're going bowling. It's a question of who we beat to get there.

 

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I think NU is flat out a better team compared to Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, and Maryland.  I think Minnesota and Purdue games may be tough, since they are on the road, but I still think NU wins those games.  I think Wisconsin and Iowa are toss-ups and NU is able to win one of those games.  It would be a big upset if NU were able to beat Ohio State.

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I'm sticking with my preseason prediction. I thought we could go 10-2 and we'd slip up on the road against Minnesota and Purdue or something like that. I changed it slightly since we slipped up against CU and after seeing Minnesota I think we can win that and make too many mistakes against Purdue.

 

Obviously, this requires the team to play way better than they did in games 1 and 2 and probably even better than game 3. However, I think we've seen steady improvement week to week and we have a lot of talent so I don't think it's impossible. Plus, the last second upset over Ohio State will give this team a ton of confidence!

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1 hour ago, knapplc said:

I'm hoping this topic looks silly at the end of November, but it's worth asking about.

 

We're 2-1 on the season. We NEED to get to a bowl game this year. The premise of this thread is that a 6-6 season won't guarantee a bowl bid. We need seven wins.

 

That said, where are the other five wins on the schedule? How hard will it be to get there? Or if this is crazy-pants talk, tell me we've got this in the bag.

 

 

For the record, based on the first 1/4 of the season, I see it panning out like this:

 

Illinois - Win

Ohio State - Loss

Northwestern - Win

Minnesota - Win

Indiana - Win

Purdue - Win

Wisconsin - Loss

Maryland - Win

Iowa - Loss

 

I have pretty good confidence picking wins for:  Illinois, Minnesota, and Indiana.  Illinois being the most confident, with Minnesota and Indiana being basically "pretty sure." I think we out-talent these teams enough that unless we royally screw up, we're not going to lose.

 

I have pretty good confidence picking losses against: Ohio State, Wisconsin & Iowa. The Buckeyes just have too much talent, and Day has gotten their ducks in a row after last year's curious malaise under Urban. I think Wisconsin & Iowa are still just too good at what they do, too good at playing error-free ball, and too good at finishing games for me to be confident in a win. But I'm less confident we'll lose to these two than to Ohio State.

 

That leaves Northwestern, Purdue and Maryland. I think we can beat all of these teams - should beat them. But nothing is ever easy against Northwestern, and we've lost to them three of the last four years. With Purdue, I'm just more confident in what Brohm is doing there than I am with what Fleck is doing at Minnesota, and that gives me pause. Plus with it being a road game just before Wisconsin, maybe we overlook them. Still, we have a Bye between Purdue & Wisconsin, so maybe that's an unwarranted fear.  With Maryland, I just don't know what we're going to see. I don't know how they score 60+ points against two early victims, then lose to Temple. Which team do we see? I think we win, but this is also a potential look-ahead game to Iowa, who comes to Lincoln just six days after this game.

 

So, basically, I have five wins in the bag - the two we already have, plus Illinois, Minnesota & Indiana. Maybe a couple more from Northwestern, Purdue & Maryland.

 

I think we're going bowling. It's a question of who we beat to get there.

 

 

This was the exact same conclusion I came to. I think that in looking at our team, it is very possible that if the OL develops over the course of the season and we're not hit hard by injuries we have a chance at only losing to tOSU. I'm curious how our DL sets up against Wisconsin's OL. 

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I picked all except for Ohio State and Maryland. Getting to 7 shouldn't be a thang. tOSU would be a major upset but it could happen. Im concerned about Maryland mostly because it falls between Wiscy and Iowa. I think we win 2 of those 3 because I'm hoping we have our sh#t together by that late in the season. But 5 more wins from here shouldn't be a problem. And I don't care what anyone says, we're beating Wisconsin this year and I believe we got enough more physical that slow plodding Iowa should pose no problem with our speed.

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I’m kind of surprised Minnesota is getting the votes it’s getting. Banner Society had an article on it. Minnesota started the season playing two of the tougher fcs teams and then went to Fresno and played an improved Fresno st team. They won all three. Now they play Purdue, Illinois, us, and Rutgers. If we don’t beat them on the road (which may be tougher than we’d like to admit) they’re going to be 7-0. 

 

Then they’re going to get chewed up on the back end of their schedule but that game is shaping up to be an interesting one. 

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15 minutes ago, CapoValley said:

I’m kind of surprised Minnesota is getting the votes it’s getting. Banner Society had an article on it. Minnesota started the season playing two of the tougher fcs teams and then went to Fresno and played an improved Fresno st team. They won all three. Now they play Purdue, Illinois, us, and Rutgers. If we don’t beat them on the road (which may be tougher than we’d like to admit) they’re going to be 7-0. 

 

Then they’re going to get chewed up on the back end of their schedule but that game is shaping up to be an interesting one. 

That's false. They played one tough FCS team, the other? Georgia Southern is in the Sun Belt who's only win was against FCS Maine 28-16. I'm STILL not sold on Minnesota. Georgia Southern isn't one of the tougher Sun Belt teams. They will finish probably 3rd or 4th in their conference. Please stop trying to make them something they're not. And with a new DC they allowed 32 from Georgia Southern.

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