Wisconsin Post Game Thread

[knapplc]

10 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

This is why people defend Chinander.

 

To be honest, I'm not defending Chinander so much as pushing back on the absurdity of firing a coach less than two years into a massive rebuild.

 

We have slow and/or undersized linebackers. We have z.e.r.o. guys who can generate a pass rush on the D Line. I don't know any defense that is going to work well under those conditions.

 

Give Chin another couple of years. If he has his guys in his system with only his coaching and they're still underperforming, then can him.

[huskerfan74]

1 hour ago, Nebfanatic said:

I do have proof im just at work and can't post right now. We are better in nearly every statistical category but I don't have time to track them down. Ill go find an old post of mine and tag you

No need, Frantzhardyswag already posted the stats and confirms that we have not shown any measurable improvement in defense. The truth of the matter is that we are currently not much better than bottomdwellers Rutgers, Maryland and Northwestern. If we continue in our current trajectory, we will struggle to make a bowl every season. If getting to a bowl is our only objective then Nebraska football is dead. No stats needed. Actions are harder than promises and speeches. Until this team shows some grit and heart, fans will not be satisfied.

[Nebfanatic]

1 minute ago, knapplc said:

 

To be honest, I'm not defending Chinander so much as pushing back on the absurdity of firing a coach less than two years into a massive rebuild.

 

We have slow and/or undersized linebackers. We have z.e.r.o. guys who can generate a pass rush on the D Line. I don't know any defense that is going to work well under those conditions.

 

Give Chin another couple of years. If he has his guys in his system with only his coaching and they're still underperforming, then can him.

Six of one half dozen of the other. We are saying the same thing

[LumberJackSker]

14 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

I greatly appreciate this post. Would be nice to see the 2017 numbers for comparison. @PaulCrewe this is probably similar to the information you were looking for. As you have said it is marginal improvment from really bad to still really bad. But with that said it is a cut above 2017, and that is where we are scratching and clawing from. We have clear talent deficiencies from attrition and that really hurts too.

 

This is why people defend Chinander. I think most defending him think he was given a situation that can't be fixed this early in his tenure here. Most of us I think feel similarly to @Mavric about the issue. Is Chinander the answer? I really don't know but I really also don't think he can be fairly judged on these two seasons or even his 2 seasons at UCF. The sample size is too small.

 

That is obviously a major concern in itself, but I feel like firing him at this juncture and trying to find a 4th DC in 5 years is more of a risk than letting him have next year to show what he can do. And lets be honest, he isn't getting fired anyway. 

 

But its fluid, what is good enough this year will not be good enough next year. Significant improvment will be expected as excuses begin to become irrelevant next season. We can't just be better than 2017, we need to get to at least the middle of the pack next season. I think the staff understands this. 

 

I'm just tired of the bad faith arguments about Chinander, specifically the idea that if Frost doesn't fire him after this season Frost will be a failure here, next season will be a disaster ect ect. Honestly I think Frost will make a decision to fire Chinander without hesitation if he needs to, but right now is too early for all of that and Chinander is not that much of a disaster at DC. Recruiting alone has been good enough to keep him at least 1 more year. We are bringing in dudes on defense. 

Personally the reason i don't give chin the benefit of the doubt i give frost is I've seen frost run elite offenses at oregon and ucf. I've never seen chin do that. At ucf the best teams in the conference put up a lot of yards and points on his defense and that has continued here. The difference is teams like Iowa, Wisconsin and the big boys in the east have the defense to slow down a frost offense even when they get more pieces in place. In my amateur opinion trying to win games 49-45 is not a good idea.

 

I hope I'm wrong about chin and next year with his recruits on the field there's a huge turn around. But i hate the crap i read every week in the game thread about if a guy was a riley recruit he's just a lost cause and can't even be taught to have gap disciple or wrap up when going for a tackle.

[Nebfanatic]

1 minute ago, huskerfan74 said:

No need, Frantzhardyswag already posted the stats and confirms that we have not shown any measurable improvement in defense. The truth of the matter is that we are currently not much better than bottomdwellers Rutgers, Maryland and Northwestern. If we continue in our current trajectory, we will struggle to make a bowl every season. If getting to a bowl is our only objective then Nebraska football is dead. No stats needed. Actions are harder than promises and speeches. Until this team shows some grit and heart, fans will not be satisfied.

Where were we at when these guys were hired. Did you expect to go from absolute worst in the conference to one of the best in 2 years? I mean seriously, what were your expectations?

[Tipton Husker]

On 11/16/2019 at 2:16 PM, Toe said:

In the end, it pretty much came down to the tipped INT and the kickoff return. If we'd had Wan'dale and a couple extra starters on D, well...

 

And also the 20 yard sack that Martinez took that destroyed a promising drivel

[Nebfanatic]

1 minute ago, LumberJackSker said:

Personally the reason i don't give chin the benefit of the doubt i give frost is I've seen frost run elite offenses at oregon and ucf. I've never seen chin do that. At ucf the best teams in the conference put up a lot of yards and points on his defense and that has continued here. The difference is teams like Iowa, Wisconsin and the big boys in the east have the defense to slow down a frost offense even when they get more pieces in place. In my amateur opinion trying to win games 49-45 is not a good idea.

 

I hope I'm wrong about chin and next year with his recruits on the field there's a huge turn around. But i hate the crap i read every week in the game thread about if a guy was a riley recruit he's just a lost cause and can't even be taught to have gap disciple or wrap up when going for a tackle.

Thats fair. I don't agree with the last paragraph but I think there is some nuance there. In my opinion the reason Riley recruits aren't that good is 2 fold. First, the best ones literally transferred or never made it in the first place, so we have the lower rated recruits still on the roster, and those guys become starters by default because all of their competition has transferred away. I don't think Riley guys are a lost cause, but I do think Rileys recruiting or lack there of has really hurt our ability to play good defense. 

[TheSker]

4 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

To be honest, I'm not defending Chinander so much as pushing back on the absurdity of firing a coach less than two years into a massive rebuild.

 

We have slow and/or undersized linebackers. We have z.e.r.o. guys who can generate a pass rush on the D Line. I don't know any defense that is going to work well under those conditions.

 

Give Chin another couple of years. If he has his guys in his system with only his coaching and they're still underperforming, then can him.

This would be my thought as well.  It has been shown repeatedly that recruiting and attrition are issues the staff is having to deal with.

 

But there will come a time it's their recruits and their schemes.

[Mavric]

1 hour ago, PaulCrewe said:

Well can you say in place longer.  This is Jim Leonhard’s third season as DC.  Yes the Badgers have been a 3-4 team since Aranda was hired.  But leonhard has instilled his own tweaks and nuances to the defense which differs from Aranda’s and Wilcox’s. 

Halfway through last year Iowa dumped the 4-3 for the 4-2-5.  So from Day 1 through spring ball for years it had been 4-3, now they’re instilling more responsibility, rules, reads, and principles to a nickel package that for years probably got 30 minutes at most during the team practice block perhaps twice a week.

Minnesota cut bait and switched coordinators part way last year.  Again new coordinator equal new philosophies and what nots.  Here they are this year Top 25-30 in most defensive categories.  One LB(yes he is very good) does not make that difference.

Teams have dealt with scheme/coaching changes for years and in so many cases transitioned fairly smoothly WITH the existing talent on their rosters.  Maybe the players responded better when not having to hear their coach say they need more talent on the field. 

Am I saying talent wise things are perfect here?  No.  Are they as bad as some make it out to be??  No.  At the end of last year there was an excitement of who was coming back on both sides of the ball.  Both the coaches and fan base were saying guys have bought in and things were trending upward.  What has happened since then????

 

I think "tweaks and nuances" from a really good defense would be a lot easier to accomplish that a complete transition from a terrible defense, right?

 

I'm not sure the transition from a 4-3 to a 4-2-5 is really all that much.  As you said, it's not really anything new, just more of something they've already been doing.  Plus, you know, they have some talent which helps.  Definitely not the same as 4-3 to 3-4.

 

I'm not sure Minnesota is quite as good as advertised.  They haven't had the greatest schedule have benefitted from facing some bad offenses.  They've played the #113, #95, #101, #121 and #99 offenses in the country plus an FCS team.  They got us without our starting QB and we've been inconsistent at best.  The last two games when they've actually played some good teams they benefited from three Penn State turnovers to hide the fact that PSU gained 7.1 ypp (1.2 ypp ABOVE their season average).  Iowa isn't exactly a great offense (#81) and they got right at their season average YPP against to Gophers.

 

But all we're doing is arguing semantics.  I understand why people are frustrated.  I'm not saying I'm not.  But I don't think it's a closed case yet.  There are a lot of things that go into it.  I don't think less than two years is enough to say for certain that one set of reasons is completely trumping the other.

 

The difference between reasons and excuses are only in the eye of the beholder.

[Toe]

1 hour ago, lo country said:

 But IMHO, the reason the O is struggling is the loss of 4 Riley guys.

 

Who? Ozigbo is the only one I can think of, Morgan and the O-line guys were Bo's recruits, not Riley's.

[knapplc]

I've posted this before but it bears repeating. The guys we're putting Blackshirts on may be decent enough players, but here they are in yet another defense led by yet another group of coaches, not the guys who recruited them and not the scheme they were recruited to play in.

 

Chaz is a good follow on the twitter. If you don't follow him, go fix that before reading this. He speaks volumes of truth.

 

 

 

 

And all this was said before Ferguson was cut.

 

Even very talented players would have some buy-in issues and some head-spinning after being taught a defense by a coach, then being told to unlearn that and learn this new defense by this new coach, then being told to unlearn all that and learn yet another new defense by yet another new coach.

 

Everyone's (justifiably) frustrated with the record and the play on the field, but there are reasons beyond "scheme doesn't work" that this stuff happens.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Mavric said:

I understand why people are frustrated.  I'm not saying I'm not.  But I don't think it's a closed case yet.  There are a lot of things that go into it.  I don't think less than two years is enough to say for certain that one set of reasons is completely trumping the other.

 

This right here is Post of the Day material. It's where I'm at.

 

[Mavric]

1 hour ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

In B1G play you could not say we are any better on defense than we were last season. Actually a lot of stats show regression. Regardless of progress, these are bottom of the barrel stats both seasons - and if we continue to play like this against B1G teams we will be lucky to make a bowl game.

 

All that is assuming we are facing the same level of offense in both years.

 

This year we've played teams rated -0.26, 1.97, -0.98, 1.07, 0.67, -0.12 and 1.30 in Football Outsider's FEI ratings.  Average = 0.52

Last year we played teams rated 0.64, 0.47, 0.25, -0.17, -0.17, 1.22, -0.14, -0.64 and 0.25.  Average = 0.19

 

The difference between those two numbers is worth about 30 spots in the middle of the rankings.

[huskerfan74]

38 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

Where were we at when these guys were hired. Did you expect to go from absolute worst in the conference to one of the best in 2 years? I mean seriously, what were your expectations?

I never expected us to be world beaters in two years but I never expected us to lose to a 2-6 Purdue, be dominated by Minnesota and lose to Indiana. I thought that we would at least finish the second year as 8-4 which will show some progress. We are currently at 4-6 and our only hope to make a bowl is to win out including a win against Iowa who have a very good defense and do not beat themselves. So, did I think we will win a national championship, no. But I also did not think we would struggle to make a bowl in our second year of the Frost era. I honestly don’t even think that Frost himself thought his team would struggle to make a bowl in his second year. Yet here we are. Time to self evaluate and make some adjustments. 

[Nebfanatic]

9 minutes ago, huskerfan74 said:

I never expected us to be world beaters in two years but I never expected us to lose to a 2-6 Purdue, be dominated by Minnesota and lose to Indiana. I thought that we would at least finish the second year as 8-4 which will show some progress. We are currently at 4-6 and our only hope to make a bowl is to win out including a win against Iowa who have a very good defense and do not beat themselves. So, did I think we will win a national championship, no. But I also did not think we would struggle to make a bowl in our second year of the Frost era. I honestly don’t even think that Frost himself thought his team would struggle to make a bowl in his second year. Yet here we are. Time to self evaluate and make some adjustments. 

So the only metric you are using is team record, which is affected by 2 other phases of the team. Got it.

[FrantzHardySwag]

1 hour ago, Mavric said:

 

All that is assuming we are facing the same level of offense in both years.

 

This year we've played teams rated -0.26, 1.97, -0.98, 1.07, 0.67, -0.12 and 1.30 in Football Outsider's FEI ratings.  Average = 0.52

Last year we played teams rated 0.64, 0.47, 0.25, -0.17, -0.17, 1.22, -0.14, -0.64 and 0.25.  Average = 0.19

 

The difference between those two numbers is worth about 30 spots in the middle of the rankings.

This site is intriguing, thanks for linking. When I calculated the average offense we faced according to these rankings it came out average of 46.7 ranked offense last season and on average 56.7 ranked offense this season. I think we can both post stats to swing the argument in our favor. I honestly don't think this defense looks any better right now than it did at the end of last season. I would take the defense we saw at end of last year OSU, ILL, MSU, Iowa games over the defense we've seen our last 4 games this season. The eye test for me says we had a below average defense last season and we've regressed or at best remained the same. Judging from Frost's comments yesterday I think he is getting sick of seeing opposing teams consistently putting 30+ on our defense as well. Look it doesn't mean we have to fire anyone -- but can't we all admit it has to be better? We HAVE to find a way to hold teams under 30 in conf play or we straight won't hit our goals. A 35-40 point game here and there - fine, but B1G teams averaging 34 points a game on us since this staff showed up, its not gonna cut it.