PasstheDamnBallGuy Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 @Mavric what are adjusted points per drive? Is that just factoring out defensive points? Quote Link to comment
Mavric Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, PasstheDamnBallGuy said: @Mavric what are adjusted points per drive? Is that just factoring out defensive points? I took it that it was also just considering drives that didn't start as the result of a turnover. Quote Link to comment
PasstheDamnBallGuy Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mavric said: I took it that it was also just considering drives that didn't start as the result of a turnover. I thought that but that would make the wording somewhat redundant. "Adj Pts/Drive and Starting Field Position on Drives not starting on Turnovers" Quote Link to comment
Mavric Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, PasstheDamnBallGuy said: I thought that but that would make the wording someone redundant. "Adj Pts/Drive and Starting Field Position on Drives not starting on Turnovers" Yeah, I agree it's not very clear. I think it's because "Adjusted Points per Drive" is their term for it and then they went on to explain what that is for those who might not be familiar. Quote Link to comment
PasstheDamnBallGuy Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Mavric said: Yeah, I agree it's not very clear. I think it's because "Adjusted Points per Drive" is their term for it and then they went on to explain what that is for those who might not be familiar. Ah ok, well semantic based thread derail aside, we seem closer to the centerline than most B1G opponents but I dont like seeing how well Mich and Minnesota offenses look based on this. And OSU looks even better somehow even though it looks their return game is maybe not as good as you would think(same for Alabama). Quote Link to comment
Mavric Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 57 minutes ago, PasstheDamnBallGuy said: Ah ok, well semantic based thread derail aside, we seem closer to the centerline than most B1G opponents but I dont like seeing how well Mich and Minnesota offenses look based on this. And OSU looks even better somehow even though it looks their return game is maybe not as good as you would think(same for Alabama). Another thing I see on this is that it seems to say a lot but I'm not sure it actually does. The total spread on the horizontal scale is about 13 yards. That's fairly significant. But the difference between us and the high end of the major grouping - everyone except the right 11 teams - is only about 7 yards. I don't know if that really makes all that much difference or not. I'd be much more interested in the vertical axis - points per drive. We look to be less than half a point below the mean. But that probably means 5-7 points per game. An extra TD each game would have won us a lot more games over the last three years. The trend line has some incline to it but not a huge amount which would mean there is a correlation there but it's not necessarily terribly strong. If we went up about 0.6 points per drive we'd only be behind a handful of teams. Just cutting down on turnovers and penalties would probably make up that difference. But better field position wouldn't hurt. Quote Link to comment
PasstheDamnBallGuy Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 44 minutes ago, Mavric said: Another thing I see on this is that it seems to say a lot but I'm not sure it actually does. The total spread on the horizontal scale is about 13 yards. That's fairly significant. But the difference between us and the high end of the major grouping - everyone except the right 11 teams - is only about 7 yards. I don't know if that really makes all that much difference or not. I'd be much more interested in the vertical axis - points per drive. We look to be less than half a point below the mean. But that probably means 5-7 points per game. An extra TD each game would have won us a lot more games over the last three years. The trend line has some incline to it but not a huge amount which would mean there is a correlation there but it's not necessarily terribly strong. If we went up about 0.6 points per drive we'd only be behind a handful of teams. Just cutting down on turnovers and penalties would probably make up that difference. But better field position wouldn't hurt. Yeah thats a really good point about the trend line and the small yardage difference. So maybe not the strongest indicator but maybe its more of a mental thing anyway. I obviously cant speak for the team but as a fan seeing a big return definitely makes the start of a drive feel very different from both sides of the ball. Would also be interesting to see more detailed data on some of the teams and compare (Rutgers may be a good one). Maybe a team mostly averages the same as us but has a couple TDs or returns into FG position. That would over the season only make the avg field position seem close but would have as you pointed out won a few more games for us. Quote Link to comment
suh_fan93 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I thought I would put this here as I found it really interesting and it's (ST) also an area in which we've had glaring deficiencies. In the end it's ultimately paying attention to detail which is important in every facet of football. Some coaches are simply better at it than others. Or they are just also sneaky smart like Urban. While not ST's exactly still fascinating regarding play calling and very relevant to our situation currently it should go without saying. According ot Urban the 'art' of play calling is a full time job not generally held by head coaches any longer. Well there is us i suppose... 1 1 Quote Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Serious question.... Is a lot of our problems on ST because we try to not use starters from the offense or defense on those units? So, we are trying to use backups that aren't quite up to strength and understanding of the speed of Div 1 football yet? Quote Link to comment
Husker in WI Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: Serious question.... Is a lot of our problems on ST because we try to not use starters from the offense or defense on those units? So, we are trying to use backups that aren't quite up to strength and understanding of the speed of Div 1 football yet? I think we use as many starters as anyone. OL/DL can really only be on the FG team, and I think a few of the OL and at least Damion Daniels are on it. I know I've seen Honas and Dismuke on coverage teams. You don't want all of the starters out there because many positions just don't have a kick coverage skillset. RBs/WRs can be good (see: Kenny Bell), but the RBs were all hurt and the receivers that were playing weren't guys I'd really want covering kicks anyway. So I dunno really, there's definitely a balance needed between your best players (starters) and young guys who have the talent but are still working on the full understanding of their side of the ball. And a couple of walk-ons doesn't hurt just for the effort. I guess initially (2018) I'd buy the lack of depth and talent and the need for the starters to stay fresh, but I think we're past the point of it being a personnel issue in any form. Even last year there was some challenge rotating guys through to use their 4 games, but this year that wasn't a consideration. 1 Quote Link to comment
ColoradoHusk Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: Serious question.... Is a lot of our problems on ST because we try to not use starters from the offense or defense on those units? So, we are trying to use backups that aren't quite up to strength and understanding of the speed of Div 1 football yet? I think that Frost does try to use walk-ons in some spots on special teams which can burn them with overall lack of athleticism. I can’t remember who McKewon mentioned specifically, but on that TD return by Rutgers, the left coverage team was predominantly walk-ons, the kickoff went that direction, and the coverage team had no chance. I am not saying walk-ons aren’t athletic or deserving of playing special teams, because NU has had plenty of walk-ons who excelled at special teams. Sometimes it takes a different breed of player who just loves special teams and excels at it. Bo Ruud mentioned on a podcast that he was teammates with Brandon Rigoni who was small and somewhat fast, but was a standout on all of the special teams. Meanwhile, Ruud said that although he played special teams, he wasn’t all that excited to play it and was pretty average at doing it. I think the biggest issues under Frost is his lack of focus and commitment to special teams. I am not sure what causes this. On one hand, Frost is a former QB and his focus is on offense, so maybe he just thinks special teams is an afterthought. But, I think Frost played on some special teams in the NFL, and it enabled him to play a few years there, so that should bolster Frost’s thoughts on special teams. Quote Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, ColoradoHusk said: I think that Frost does try to use walk-ons in some spots on special teams which can burn them with overall lack of athleticism. I can’t remember who McKewon mentioned specifically, but on that TD return by Rutgers, the left coverage team was predominantly walk-ons, the kickoff went that direction, and the coverage team had no chance. I am not saying walk-ons aren’t athletic or deserving of playing special teams, because NU has had plenty of walk-ons who excelled at special teams. Sometimes it takes a different breed of player who just loves special teams and excels at it. Bo Ruud mentioned on a podcast that he was teammates with Brandon Rigoni who was small and somewhat fast, but was a standout on all of the special teams. Meanwhile, Ruud said that although he played special teams, he wasn’t all that excited to play it and was pretty average at doing it. I think the biggest issues under Frost is his lack of focus and commitment to special teams. I am not sure what causes this. On one hand, Frost is a former QB and his focus is on offense, so maybe he just thinks special teams is an afterthought. But, I think Frost played on some special teams in the NFL, and it enabled him to play a few years there, so that should bolster Frost’s thoughts on special teams. I guess I have a problem believing Frost doesn't take ST seriously. He was on teams here where TO preached how important they are and he idolizes TO. These guys also have played special teams in MS and HS. The concept isn't rocket science. I keep thinking the problem with coverages is somehow either who we have on the units or how they are told to play it. But, this has been a major problem since even before Frost. 2 Quote Link to comment
Husker in WI Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: I guess I have a problem believing Frost doesn't take ST seriously. He was on teams here where TO preached how important they are and he idolizes TO. These guys also have played special teams in MS and HS. The concept isn't rocket science. I keep thinking the problem with coverages is somehow either who we have on the units or how they are told to play it. But, this has been a major problem since even before Frost. Frost's NFL career was mostly special teams too. But it really wasn't a problem under Riley - I know we fired Read, but we didn't grade out that poorly under him or in 2017 without him. We had a couple things (kick returns in 2015, Punting in 2016) that were bad, but largely average to above average overall. Under Frost they've all been bad with the exception of field goals and punt returns this year. Field goal kicking in 2018 was also decent. Quote Link to comment
ColoradoHusk Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: I guess I have a problem believing Frost doesn't take ST seriously. He was on teams here where TO preached how important they are and he idolizes TO. These guys also have played special teams in MS and HS. The concept isn't rocket science. I keep thinking the problem with coverages is somehow either who we have on the units or how they are told to play it. But, this has been a major problem since even before Frost. Special teams doesn’t take knowing of concepts, it’s a lot about effort, speed, and athleticism. You know who plays special teams in the NFL? The most athletic players. The RB’s, WR’s, LB’s, and DB’s. So, I think part of the issues are not enough quality athletes being willing and able to play ST. That should improve with more depth, but it’s troubling that it’s still an issue in year 3. Regarding ST concepts and coaching, it seems to be all over the place under Frost. That shows me that he doesn’t place a big emphasis on it. Maybe that will change, as he realizes he can’t blow teams out as often as he did at UCF, and special teams are important. IMO, needs to be one full-time coach who leads all special teams. Whether that’s adding ST duties to an assistant coach or naming a specific ST coordinator, it’s an issue which needs to be focused on and fixed. There needs to be one ST coach who knows which guys are on which units. Substitutions and having the right guys out there is half of the battle with special teams. Quote Link to comment
J-MAGIC Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, BigRedBuster said: I guess I have a problem believing Frost doesn't take ST seriously. He was on teams here where TO preached how important they are and he idolizes TO. These guys also have played special teams in MS and HS. The concept isn't rocket science. I keep thinking the problem with coverages is somehow either who we have on the units or how they are told to play it. But, this has been a major problem since even before Frost. People who think our coaches don't care about special teams or aren't trying to improve them are clueless. These are a lot more difficult, complex and time-consuming problems to fix than just telling your punt returner to make sure he catches the ball, but for some reason fans think systemic and long-running problems get fixed by snapping your fingers. It's fair to criticize them for certain aspects of the ST's performance, but these are problems of organization/talent/depth, not our coaches being like "let's not practice any punts this week, who care about that lol". 2 Quote Link to comment
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