2020 Schedule Analysis

[seaofred92]

https://fbschedules.com/ncaa-2020/team/nebraska

 

9/5 Purdue

9/12 Central Michigan 

9/19 South Dakota State

9/26 Cincinnati 

10/3 @ Northwestern 

10/10 Illinois

10/17 IDLE

10/24 @ Rutgers

10/31 @ Ohio State

11/7 Penn State

11/14 @ Iowa

11/21 @ Wisconsin 

11/27 Minnesota

 

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

 

Immediate thoughts: This schedule is sneakily brutal. 

 

Purdue will be getting back Moore and beat us this year. This is a game Nebraska really needs to win to set the tone for 2020 as not only is it the season opener, but its also a conference game within the division. Huskers absolutely have to win this game.

 

Central Michigan is playing in the MAC Title game this upcoming week, and went from 1-11 in 2018 to 8-4 under Jim McElwain in his first year. They lost by 5 @ Miami (FL) and Wisconsin pounded them. Doesn’t matter the league, playing a team that is used to winning is never easy. Again Nebraska should win this game but depending on the outcome of Purdue, if we don’t come mentally ready to play, this game could be tighter than many hope for (see 2017 NIU for additional detail). 

 

South Dakota State lost by a TD @ Minnesota this year (and really blew the game). I’ve watched a few of their games as I’m sure some of you have, they have a fun explosive offense and do a good job mixing up the play calls. This isn’t just a standard push-over Bethune Cookman type FCS game. They’ve got enough on their roster, especially with all the #NebraskaJacks, to make things competitive in Lincoln. 

 

What if I told you Nebraska is playing a non-conference game against a team that won 11 games in 2018, is currently ranked in the top 20 in the country in the CFP rankings in 2019, is playing for its conference title game this weekend, and most likely a NY6 Bowl Bid to the Cotton Bowl if they win? And then what if I told you most Nebraska fans that I’ve seen on this board are chalking this game up as an automatic win next year? Wouldn’t make much sense right? Well that is the Cincinnati Bearcats, who will return All-AAC running back Michael Warren Jr as well as a third year starting QB in Desmond Ridder. This team’s defense is LEGIT, and will be led by All-AAC Safety James Wiggins, who is coming back from injury missing the 2019 season. Luke Fickell is the head coach and is plenty familiar with the Huskers from his days at Ohio State. This game scares the living bejesus out of me. 

 

Every single game against Northwestern is a rock fight. I don’t even know what else to say about this one. 

 

Illinois is coming off a bowl appearance in 2019 and will have revenge on their minds as they’ll feel like we stole one in Champaign this year. Nebraska is more talented and should win this game at home, but you never know. 

 

We basically get back to back idle weeks with the actual idle week being 10/17 and then traveling to Rutgers. Hopefully this will allow us to regroup and get healthy before entering a gauntlet stretch which starts with.....

 

@ Ohio State. On Halloween. Okie dokes. 

 

Penn State is the game Frost needs to win to have a “signature” win on his resume in my opinion. PSU is a weird team, enough elite talent to hang around with OSU on an annual basis, beats Michigan and Wisconsin type teams, but is clearly a step below the truly elite teams. Nebraska can win this game if it isn’t mentally shook from the game the previous week in Columbus. 

 

@ Iowa I want to win more than any game on the schedule. I hate these guys. I don’t know that it’ll happen, but we looked much better the last 3/4’s of the game after the disaster of the first quarter this past Friday. But that has been Nebraska’s M.O. the past few years: can’t piece together a full game. 

 

@ Wisconsin is a brutal game to have at the end of this stretch. I full expect Nebraska to lose this game just given the previous three games on the schedule, however they run an eerily similar style to Iowa and playing them back to back weeks should certainly help in preparation. I do wish there was either an Idle week between these, or at least one of them was at home. 

 

Minnesota I fully expect to have a regression year in 2020. They’re talented, but as Wisconsin showed yesterday, they aren’t that great. They played 3 games against good teams this year and went 1-2, and probably should’ve lost the PSU game at home. They played 6 games in 2019 that were determined by 1 possession, and went 5-1 in those games. That typically regresses to the mean the following year. 

 

Summary: Purdue is a must win to start the 2020 campaign. There’s going to be a LOT of grumbling if we drop that one at home. The non-conference schedule, while lacking “brand” names, should feature three really good tests for where this team is in 2020. I’d say you could even argue the non-conference games increase in difficulty week over week, starting with CMU and ending with Cincinnati. If we go through the first third of the season at 4-0, most of the media and fans might write this off, but I would see this as incredible progress for this team. I’d expect us to be 3-1 through this stretch most likely. 

 

The next 3 games decide the fate of the season: @ NW, Illinois, @ Rutgers. Can we find our stride during these weeks? Can we stay healthy? The Huskers have struggled in road games (minus Maryland) the past few years- can Nebraska go on the road against a solid NW team and a bad Rutgers team and play complete games? 

 

The last 5 games, while fun for fans, are brutal on the schedule. It really shows how deep the B1G has become that you look at the last 5 games of the 2020 schedule and can’t automatically write in a win for any of them. Nebraska needs to start by holding serve at home. Winning the PSU and Minnesota games at home would be a big sign of progress for this team in my opinion. We’ve gotten too used to losing games at Memorial Stadium the past few years. Time for that trend to reverse. 

 

Overall, the schedule is built to go back to a bowl, while also challenge us and show where we need to improve. I’m not going to make game by game predictions or guess a final record- I’ll just say a bowl game is an absolute must in 2020. The schedule is challenging, probably more so than many people realize, but it will provide us with a good chance to see just how far this program has come under Frost, and where we need to improve the roster to make a jump in 20201. 

[seaofred92]

One additional point I’d like to add that I forgot in the OP- 

 

There is potential for 6 of our opponents in 2020 to be in the pre-season top 25 (Cincinnati, Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota). And that doesn’t include South Dakota State, who will be ranked in the FCS Top 25 almost certainly to start the year. So potentially 7 out of 12 opponents being ranked in their respective level of football. Everyone talks about 2021 being a brutal schedule but I’m looking at this upcoming season and thinking it may be just as difficult, if not more so. 

[lo country]

I honestly think that based on the previous 2 years and replacing a lot of guys on the defensive side, we could be looking at a 3-9 season unless somethings drastically improve.  If we are not bowl eligible after the Rutgers game......Of course this can all change with the best off season we've ever had, we have really come together as a team, 100% buy in, killing it the weight room, solid leaders have emerged  etc.....

 

Like you said about SDSU, they played Minnie tough. They played us tough when Bo was the coach.....I see Rutgers as a guaranteed win.  When seem to have Illinois number. Western Michigan (with our current team) is no push over......Through in Purdue as the first game and NW at their house....Away games at OSU, Iowa and Wisky....Damn.  That's a tough schedule.

[Cdog923]

With the roster coming back (and assuming recruiting is average), find 4 wins on that schedule. 

[Xmas32]

Jeebus, the non conference slate is really tough.  No cupcakes there and that Cincy game would be a point spread of 3 or less.  Better scoop the wins and get to 6 after playing Rutgers.

[TheSker]

I like a difficult schedule.  It makes the season more fun.

 

And I'm one who believes we have better puzzle pieces starting next season.

 

Three things Frost is well aware of, and are being addressed quickly (hopefully with good results) are the interior of the OL, pass rush and WR (including perimeter blocking).

[HANC]

Great analysis! I have studied this schedule for awhile and I think you nailed it.  It worries me and I am not confident on 6 wins, but am hopeful.  That is why we so drastically needed to get 6 this year with what appeared to be easiest schedule in near future. With the fragile state of the fans, I shutter to think what may happen if we fail to make a bowl next year, heading into another brutal 2021.

My son attends SDSU and although they dropped a game late, they are legit and handed the game away against NDSU. Will be a test for sure.

[Hedley Lamarr]

8-4 

[Red Five]

10/31 @ Ohio State

11/7 Penn State

11/14 @ Iowa

11/21 @ Wisconsin 

11/27 Minnesota

 

That is a hell of a stretch.  We're going to be crazy beat up after the 1st 3, then we get Wisconsin.  Our guys will be beat to a pulp after Wisconsin and then we get Minnesota on a short week.

 

 

[BoNeyard]

It will be interesting to see how Minnesota does next year. Was this season a sort of peak or is what we saw this year what is expected to be seen from Minnesota for years to come under Fleck?

 

The schedule is really tough to pick. We very well could go into the BYE week at 5-1 or we very well could go into the BYE week at 3-3 I have no idea.

[BoNeyard]

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

10/31 @ Ohio State

11/7 Penn State

11/14 @ Iowa

11/21 @ Wisconsin 

11/27 Minnesota

 

That is a hell of a stretch.  We're going to be crazy beat up after the 1st 3, then we get Wisconsin.  Our guys will be beat to a pulp after Wisconsin and then we get Minnesota on a short week.

 

 

Probably reaching for straws here, but on the optimistic side, Penn State tends to become much more vulnerable in the later parts of the season. They always start the season off really good, but come November they seem off.

 

We are so close to overcoming Iowa.

We are due for beating Wisconsin. We actually have outplayed them the last two years, they just simply have the bigger and better players.

[r06ue1]

38 minutes ago, seaofred92 said:

L - 9/5 Purdue

W - 9/12 Central Michigan 

W - 9/19 South Dakota State

L - 9/26 Cincinnati 

T - 10/3 @ Northwestern 

T - 10/10 Illinois

10/17 IDLE

W - 10/24 @ Rutgers

L - 10/31 @ Ohio State

L - 11/7 Penn State

L - 11/14 @ Iowa

L - 11/21 @ Wisconsin 

L - 11/27 Minnesota

 

We are looking at anything between 3 - 9 and 5 - 7 (the two T's are tossups).  

 

The offense will be better especially due to the better offensive line play that we saw at the end of this season.  The defense will likely regress due to the loss of experience (not too much of a loss in the talent area).  

 

Now, looking forward a few more seasons:  The offense and defense will be a LOT better as the starters will have experience (being juniors and seniors) to go along with their talent.  Yes, we are still looking at two to three more seasons to really winning division or conference titles.  I hope it is sooner but I just don't see it turning around as quickly as many of us want.

[TheSker]

2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

10/31 @ Ohio State

11/7 Penn State

11/14 @ Iowa

11/21 @ Wisconsin 

11/27 Minnesota

 

That is a hell of a stretch.  We're going to be crazy beat up after the 1st 3, then we get Wisconsin.  Our guys will be beat to a pulp after Wisconsin and then we get Minnesota on a short week.

 

 

I agree with you totally about this stretch.

 

But in my opinion, we have to start being the ones who start being the more physically dominant team.

 

I truly believe that mentality is our biggest issue post-Riley.

 

I am 100% certain that is where Frost is trying to go.  

 

It's why we won't be recruiting linemen shorter than 6'5" very often.  They can add NFL weight and have reach.

 

We need to be the physically dominant team, and I believe that's a top goal.

[BoNeyard]

I think that Purdue game is the biggest game of the year. I think that dictates how the season goes. Beat Purdue and we are looking at a great September, with the biggest challenge being Cincy. Lose to Purdue and this season very well falls off the rails quick.

[HuskerNation1]

48 minutes ago, seaofred92 said:

https://fbschedules.com/ncaa-2020/team/nebraska

 

9/5 Purdue

9/12 Central Michigan 

9/19 South Dakota State

9/26 Cincinnati 

10/3 @ Northwestern 

10/10 Illinois

10/17 IDLE

10/24 @ Rutgers

10/31 @ Ohio State

11/7 Penn State

11/14 @ Iowa

11/21 @ Wisconsin 

11/27 Minnesota

 

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

 

Immediate thoughts: This schedule is sneakily brutal. 

 

Purdue will be getting back Moore and beat us this year. This is a game Nebraska really needs to win to set the tone for 2020 as not only is it the season opener, but its also a conference game within the division. Huskers absolutely have to win this game.

 

Central Michigan is playing in the MAC Title game this upcoming week, and went from 1-11 in 2018 to 8-4 under Jim McElwain in his first year. They lost by 5 @ Miami (FL) and Wisconsin pounded them. Doesn’t matter the league, playing a team that is used to winning is never easy. Again Nebraska should win this game but depending on the outcome of Purdue, if we don’t come mentally ready to play, this game could be tighter than many hope for (see 2017 NIU for additional detail). 

 

South Dakota State lost by a TD @ Minnesota this year (and really blew the game). I’ve watched a few of their games as I’m sure some of you have, they have a fun explosive offense and do a good job mixing up the play calls. This isn’t just a standard push-over Bethune Cookman type FCS game. They’ve got enough on their roster, especially with all the #NebraskaJacks, to make things competitive in Lincoln. 

 

What if I told you Nebraska is playing a non-conference game against a team that won 11 games in 2018, is currently ranked in the top 20 in the country in the CFP rankings in 2019, is playing for its conference title game this weekend, and most likely a NY6 Bowl Bid to the Cotton Bowl if they win? And then what if I told you most Nebraska fans that I’ve seen on this board are chalking this game up as an automatic win next year? Wouldn’t make much sense right? Well that is the Cincinnati Bearcats, who will return All-AAC running back Michael Warren Jr as well as a third year starting QB in Desmond Ridder. This team’s defense is LEGIT, and will be led by All-AAC Safety James Wiggins, who is coming back from injury missing the 2019 season. Luke Fickell is the head coach and is plenty familiar with the Huskers from his days at Ohio State. This game scares the living bejesus out of me. 

 

Every single game against Northwestern is a rock fight. I don’t even know what else to say about this one. 

 

Illinois is coming off a bowl appearance in 2019 and will have revenge on their minds as they’ll feel like we stole one in Champaign this year. Nebraska is more talented and should win this game at home, but you never know. 

 

We basically get back to back idle weeks with the actual idle week being 10/17 and then traveling to Rutgers. Hopefully this will allow us to regroup and get healthy before entering a gauntlet stretch which starts with.....

 

@ Ohio State. On Halloween. Okie dokes. 

 

Penn State is the game Frost needs to win to have a “signature” win on his resume in my opinion. PSU is a weird team, enough elite talent to hang around with OSU on an annual basis, beats Michigan and Wisconsin type teams, but is clearly a step below the truly elite teams. Nebraska can win this game if it isn’t mentally shook from the game the previous week in Columbus. 

 

@ Iowa I want to win more than any game on the schedule. I hate these guys. I don’t know that it’ll happen, but we looked much better the last 3/4’s of the game after the disaster of the first quarter this past Friday. But that has been Nebraska’s M.O. the past few years: can’t piece together a full game. 

 

@ Wisconsin is a brutal game to have at the end of this stretch. I full expect Nebraska to lose this game just given the previous three games on the schedule, however they run an eerily similar style to Iowa and playing them back to back weeks should certainly help in preparation. I do wish there was either an Idle week between these, or at least one of them was at home. 

 

Minnesota I fully expect to have a regression year in 2020. They’re talented, but as Wisconsin showed yesterday, they aren’t that great. They played 3 games against good teams this year and went 1-2, and probably should’ve lost the PSU game at home. They played 6 games in 2019 that were determined by 1 possession, and went 5-1 in those games. That typically regresses to the mean the following year. 

 

Summary: Purdue is a must win to start the 2020 campaign. There’s going to be a LOT of grumbling if we drop that one at home. The non-conference schedule, while lacking “brand” names, should feature three really good tests for where this team is in 2020. I’d say you could even argue the non-conference games increase in difficulty week over week, starting with CMU and ending with Cincinnati. If we go through the first third of the season at 4-0, most of the media and fans might write this off, but I would see this as incredible progress for this team. I’d expect us to be 3-1 through this stretch most likely. 

 

The next 3 games decide the fate of the season: @ NW, Illinois, @ Rutgers. Can we find our stride during these weeks? Can we stay healthy? The Huskers have struggled in road games (minus Maryland) the past few years- can Nebraska go on the road against a solid NW team and a bad Rutgers team and play complete games? 

 

The last 5 games, while fun for fans, are brutal on the schedule. It really shows how deep the B1G has become that you look at the last 5 games of the 2020 schedule and can’t automatically write in a win for any of them. Nebraska needs to start by holding serve at home. Winning the PSU and Minnesota games at home would be a big sign of progress for this team in my opinion. We’ve gotten too used to losing games at Memorial Stadium the past few years. Time for that trend to reverse. 

 

Overall, the schedule is built to go back to a bowl, while also challenge us and show where we need to improve. I’m not going to make game by game predictions or guess a final record- I’ll just say a bowl game is an absolute must in 2020. The schedule is challenging, probably more so than many people realize, but it will provide us with a good chance to see just how far this program has come under Frost, and where we need to improve the roster to make a jump in 20201. 

 

Great analysis of next year's schedule.  Most pundits recognized Nebraska had a much easier schedule this season with many top teams playing in Lincoln which is why expectations were higher.  Perhaps only getting to 5 wins this season will lower expectations so much for year 3 that, even if Nebraska is playing better, they may still only get to 5 or 6 wins due to the schedule.  Had we won 7 or 8 games this year (which we should have) and then fallen back to 5 or 6 in year 3, it would be more difficult for Frost to explain.  

 

The one positive that a tough early schedule will do is force Frost to make personnel changes before one group of players gets too established into the season. Frost seems very concerned about mixing up personnel, especially at QB.  The tough schedule will also test this staff, and if Frost chooses to retain his entire staff for year 3 and the team continues to struggle, there should be no choice for Frost but to break ties and move into a new direction.