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Huskers NCAA Tournament- #5 National Seed


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Being seeded at 5 is probably one higher than I thought Nebraska would be. I am disappointed (again) that the committee didn't try to avoid  all B1G regional finals (last year was Illinois - Wisconsin and Nebraska - Minnesota except that the Gophers choked in the regional semis). For as unfavorable as the regional final match up is, the 3rd round match is actually pretty good with Hawaii as the 12 seed. Wisconsin has it even better with aTm somehow being selected as the 13 seed. My guess is that aTm doesn't make it out of the 1st weekend (see the Rice Owls).

 

As far as the top 4 seeds, I didn't think that the committee would reward a crappy conference like the Big 12 with two top seeds. Not only did they reward the conference with two top seeds, they rewarded them with THE two top seeds. Pitt also plays in a crappy conference (the ACC) but the reality is that the Big 12 has ZERO depth.  But instead Pitt gets a 6 seed, has to go to the West Coast for the 2nd weekend, AND has to play the 8th ranked Penn State squad that somehow ended up an 11 seed even though they finished tied for 2nd in the B1G at 17-3. This is the 'reward' Pitt gets for being 29-1 in a power 5 conference (albeit a weak one).

 

The committee places too much reliance on the RPI. The RPI actually rewards teams in weak conferences. Baylor beating a 11-5 Oklahoma squad looks a lot better than a Wisconsin beating a 7-13 Oklahoma squad, which is what the Sooners record would have been if they played in the B1G (and that's probably being generous).

 

Other observations. Penn State at 11 is a joke. Washington at 15 - 5 in the PAC-12 should not be the 8 seed over Florida, Kentucky, and Penn State. Again too much weight on the RPI and too much credit for wins over Wisconsin in September when the Badgers were in the middle of a four game losing streak. Oklahoma in the tournament over California is also puzzling. 10 -10 in the PAC-12 and 20-10 overall is a better resume' than 11-5 in the Big 12. Plus California swept Oklahoma 3-0, even though that was also a September match. Oklahoma beat literally no one of substance. They split with Iowa State and lost twice to Baylor and Texas in conference. As mentioned before, they lost in 3 to California, in 3 to Colorado State, and their "best" victories in non-conference where 5 setters over Oregon State, Indiana, and Arizona State. Iowa State in the tourney is even more mystifying. 8-8 in the Big 12, and with only one solid win in non-conference over Northern Iowa, and losses to UCF, Penn State (in a sweep), and LSU. The Big 12 should only have two reps.

 

In the first weekend I don't see a ton of upsets, but probably more than last year. As mentioned before, look for Rice to come out of the aTm group. I also like Colorado State over 8 seed Washington,  and San Diego over 12 seed Hawaii setting up a rematch with the Huskers. Marquette and 16 seed Purdue is a coin flip, and I would like to jump on the Illini bandwagon with Jacqueline "Swing Away" Quade, but I think they've actually regressed in the past few weeks. Losing to Northwestern on the final game of the regular season is not a good look.

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