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Cdog923

A Statistical Analysis of Husker QBs, or: Who Should We Blame For Our Disappointment?

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Let's dive into some numbers and examine just how successful or unsuccessful Adrian Martinez's year was, and juxtapose that against what we've seen from previous Husker QBs, with the idea of finding out how much of our disappointment with him is his fault vs. whatever expectations were laid at his feet. What I'm going to do is look at the passing yards, completion percentages, yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio and the QBR of the starting QBs who took the most attempts for the last 10 years of Husker Football (I've bolded the leader in each category). 

 

2010 - Taylor Martinez: 116/196, 59.2%, 1,631 yds, 8.3 YPA, 10 TDs, 7INTs, 138.8 QBR

 

2011 - Taylor Martinez: 162/288, 56.3%, 2,089 yds, 7.3 YPA, 13 TDs, 8 INTs, 126.5 QBR

 

2012 - Taylor Martinez: 228/368, 62.0%, 2,871 yds, 7.8 YPA, 23 TDs, 12 INTs, 141.6 QBR

 

2013 - Ron Kellogg III: 80/134, 59.7%, 919 yds, 6.9 YPA, 6 TDs, 3 INTs, 127.6 QBR

 

2014 - Tommy Armstrong: 184/345, 53.3%, 2,685 yds, 7.8 YPA, 22 TDs, 12 INTs, 133.0 QBR

 

2015 - Tommy Armstrong: 222/402, 55.2%, 3,030 yds, 7.5 YPA, 22 TDs, 16 INTs, 128.6 QBR

 

2016 - Tommy Armstrong: 151/294, 51.4%, 2,180 yds, 7.4 YPA, 14 TDs, 8 INTs, 123.9 QBR

 

2017 - Tanner Lee: 246/428, 57.4%, 3,143 yds, 7.3 YPA, 23 TDs, 16 INTs, 129.4 QBR

 

2018 - Adrian Martinez: 224/347, 64.6%, 2,617 yds, 7.5 YPA, 17 TDs, 8 INTs, 139.5 QBR

 

2019 - Adrian Martinez: 149/251, 59.4%, 1,955 yds, 7.8 YPA, 10 TDs, 9 INTs, 130.8 QBR

 

What this tells us is that he had the third-best completion %, tied for second most YPA, while having a middling TD/INT ratio and QBR, and almost the least amount of yards. There's an absolute regression in each statistical category save for YPA, and he also threw the ball almost 100 less this year than last, while playing in only one fewer game. 

 

My conclusion is that while, yes, it was most certainly a disappointing year and a regression, he's statistically well within the mean of what production we've gotten from the QB position over the last 10 years. In fact, it's kind of scary how much it looks like Taylor's freshman season (minus rushing production). So yes, it's a disappointment, but it's also mostly what we've gotten from the position in recent history. 

 

Just for comparison sake, here's the most successful statline of a Husker QB in recent history; I'll let you figure out who: 

 

285/420, 67.9%, 3,568 yds, 8.5 YPA, 25 TDs, 11 INTs, 153.6 QBR

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9 minutes ago, Cdog923 said:

My conclusion is that while, yes, it was most certainly a disappointing year and a regression, he's statistically well within the mean of what production we've gotten from the QB position over the last 10 years.

 

 

ding ding ding ding ding. The only reason so many online fans are saying crazy stuff like, "I hope to never see him on the field in a Husker uniform again he's shown us who he is" and just being totally done with the kid aren't because he's actually bad but because he didn't fulfill their expectations. Kinda the same way that if you are expected to go 4-8 and then you go undefeated, it's a lot of fun, but if you're expected to win the natty but only go 8-4, that season is a depressing s#!tshow. 

 

Adrian's still the best QB we've had since Taylor for sure, and probably a good argument since Ganz. And even if he's not quite as good, he's still close to as good but minus the penchant for 3 INT games or throwing balls in the dirt ten yards in front of a receiver a few times a game like Taylor, and minus YOLO ball tendencies like Tommy, and minus being a personal pick six machine like Tanner. I know his decision making wasn't all that great this year but people somehow seem to forget the decision making we've had at quarterback for the last years :lol:Give the kid a chance to bounce back. 

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40 minutes ago, Landlord said:

...aren't because he's actually bad but because he didn't fulfill their expectations

 

Unfulfilled expectations are sometimes the hardest things to overcome.

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I've always thought Taylor Martinez took a (statistical) step backward his sophomore year due to defensive coordinators having film on him and game planning for him (and not just due to being injured like a lot of people say).  Okay, I know we're talking about passing stats and TMart was primarily a running quarterback.  But once you hamper his running game he just didn't have the arm or accuracy to be a polished passing QB.  

 

I suspect we are seeing some of the same thing with Adrian Martinez.  He burst on the scene last season and took everyone by surprise.  But DCs have enough film on him that they are better at game planning.  They have reads on him, his linemen and his receivers, and that helps out the DBs.  That might be some of it.  Then again part of his fall off this year might be due to injury or off field distractions.  Who's to say?

 

====================================  

I stuck that TMart clip in this post, well, because it's an awesome clip.  And likely won't have any more Husker football to watch this season.  But also because I love how they put 30 seconds of announcer commentary starting at 0:58 --  "They figured out at halftime" blah, blah, blah "and Snyder's been doing this a long time."  --announcer commentary immediately before Taylor Martinez 80 yard touchdown run 

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55 minutes ago, Cdog923 said:

Just for comparison sake, here's the most successful statline of a Husker QB in recent history; I'll let you figure out who: 

 

285/420, 67.9%, 3,568 yds, 8.5 YPA, 25 TDs, 11 INTs, 153.6 QBR

 

Sam Keller.

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4 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Unfulfilled expectations are sometimes the hardest things to overcome.

Severe and Benning commented today that performance against yourself is easier to do than performance against someone else.  With Adrian, it's very true for this year.

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It’s not just our expectations. HCSF said he wouldn’t trade Adrian for any QB in the country.  
 

So, have some leniency with a fan base buying into some of that hype. Scott created a scenario, piggybacking from a good Freshman campaign, to believe Adrian is hope for this team. 
 

We’ve been mired in mediocrity for 20 years save for some outlier seasons with great defenses. To compare Adrian against other QBs in this tenure is moot; the fans aren’t looking for comparisons against average. We were fired up when Frost was hired as it represented hope to return to relevance. Same with Adrian. Watching the latter this year was extremely disappointing. His decisions, his demeanor, his “athleticism.”
 

Adrian won’t get one all BIG vote this year. And now looking at what is behind him (Luke, Smothers) the fans rightfully are looking for a QB who can establish this team as a dominant offensive force. Not talk. Not hype. Action. 
 

ETA: I am curious if Scott feels this is Adrian’s right of passage season comparative to his own 1996 season. And awaiting Adrian to mirror Scott’s redemptive 1997 season. How many games, or possible disgruntled backups, is HCSF willing to endure to see if this is true? One loss? Three losses? No bowl game?  

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Wouldn't it be better to compare our current QB with QBs that played the same offense?  Comparing QBs across different offenses doesn't make nearly as much sense to me as comparing QBs that played Frost's offense at both Oregon when he was OC and UCF.

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I blame Colorado, 62-36, 2001.

Place hasn't been the same since.

 

I believe I'm on record of saying although I don't believe in Voodoo, I'm more than willing to sacrifice a live animal at the 50 to make whatever 2001 hex go away at this point.

 

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4 minutes ago, ColoradoHusk said:

 

Heh, I guessed it right.  But only because I reread the question and noticed "recent history".  I was gonna guess Gerry Gdowski.  Here's Gdowski's stat line, btw:  

 

1989 -Gdowski:  79/136  52.2% 1,326 yds, 9.8 YPA, 19 TDs,  2 INTs,   177.3 QBR

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8 minutes ago, junior4949 said:

Wouldn't it be better to compare our current QB with QBs that played the same offense?  Comparing QBs across different offenses doesn't make nearly as much sense to me as comparing QBs that played Frost's offense at both Oregon when he was OC and UCF.

 

The difference in offenses in the last 10 years is not that great; not particularly when comparing Frost's offense to, say, Osborne's. The largest statistical variance is in attempts, and even then, you could use the lowest (196) and the highest (428) as outliers. 

 

3 minutes ago, alexhortdog95 said:

I blame Colorado, 62-36, 2001.

Place hasn't been the same since.

 

I believe I'm on record of saying although I don't believe in Voodoo, I'm more than willing to sacrifice a live animal at the 50 to make whatever 2001 hex go away at this point.

 

 

The further away we get, the more I believe in the Frank Solich curse. 

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6 minutes ago, junior4949 said:

Wouldn't it be better to compare our current QB with QBs that played the same offense?  Comparing QBs across different offenses doesn't make nearly as much sense to me as comparing QBs that played Frost's offense at both Oregon when he was OC and UCF.

 

This is true.  I mean, how much sense would it be to compare Tommie Frazier's stat lines to a QB running Frost's (current) offense.  Frazier only threw enough to keep defenses somewhat honest and not stack everyone in the box.  Tommie never had a season where he threw 100 passes.  Shoot, in 1994 he only threw the ball 44 times all year.    

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3 minutes ago, Cdog923 said:

 

The difference in offenses in the last 10 years is not that great; not particularly when comparing Frost's offense to, say, Osborne's. The largest statistical variance is in attempts, and even then, you could use the lowest (196) and the highest (428) as outliers. 

 

 

The further away we get, the more I believe in the Frank Solich curse. 

 

I responded to a friend via email with this:

 

Look, I don’t believe in voodoo, or witch craft…but man, they gotta do something right now.  Frank Solich was escorted out of here in such a horrible fashion, and this was Solich on his way out the door:

 

image.png.e2999335ae2366206b54a98b6bf9e06e.png

 

“Until you do right by me, everything you do is gonna fail!”

Time to go to the chicken coop….ignore Old Mister……”SURE IS NICE….SEEING YOU TWO….TOGETHER AGAIN….”

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