Roster flipping

[lo country]

Good article that breaks down our roster and youth.  I'll be the first too admit, Frost hasn't tried to flip the roster in 2 years.  He has shaken it like a snow globe.  Explains a lot. Even to a poster like me!

 

Article here:

https://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/life-in-the-red/life-in-the-red-notes-from-the-huskers-updated-roster/article_2822219a-6ab2-56cd-947d-45dbd66f513e.amp.html

Of the 164 on the roster, 131 have joined the program in the two years since Scott Frost took over as head coach. 

[BigPeterJ]

1 hour ago, lo country said:

Good article that breaks down our roster and youth.  I'll be the first too admit, Frost hasn't tried to flip the roster in 2 years.  He has shaken it like a snow globe.  Explains a lot. Even to a poster like me!

 

Article here:

https://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/life-in-the-red/life-in-the-red-notes-from-the-huskers-updated-roster/article_2822219a-6ab2-56cd-947d-45dbd66f513e.amp.html

Of the 164 on the roster, 131 have joined the program in the two years since Scott Frost took over as head coach. 

Im right there with you brother.  I didnt realize the extent of this until this past month when i was looking at our roster.  I was pissed off at our coaching after the Iowa game and the season as a whole.  I thought we had more talent than everyone in our division except maybe Wisconsin, and yet we looked like a s#!tty team.  

 

Then i examined our roster.  And realized we had no more talent than anyone, (maybe equal to the rest of our division).  Riley's last class was rated 23(?), but most of the top guys from that class aren't here (including the top 3, and most of the top 10). Frost's first class had one month, he lost most of Riley's top recruits, and lost some more to attrition.  90% of our talent will be freshman or Sophomores next year.  I respect your posts as you speak from the heart, we just gotta be patient for 1 more year.  I blame most of this on the hype so many people put on this past year.  Anyone who looked at the roster should have known we wouldn't be that good this past year, but as fans our hearts fell for it.  We still should have been 7-5 or so, but Frost had very little to work with.

[lo country]

9 minutes ago, BigPeterJ said:

Im right there with you brother.  I didnt realize the extent of this until this past month when i was looking at our roster.  I was pissed off at our coaching after the Iowa game and the season as a whole.  I thought we had more talent than everyone in our division except maybe Wisconsin, and yet we looked like a s#!tty team.  

 

Then i examined our roster.  And realized we had no more talent than anyone, (maybe equal to the rest of our division).  Riley's last class was rated 23(?), but most of the top guys from that class aren't here (including the top 3, and most of the top 10). Frost's first class had one month, he lost most of Riley's top recruits, and lost some more to attrition.  90% of our talent will be freshman or Sophomores next year.  I respect your posts as you speak from the heart, we just gotta be patient for 1 more year.  I blame most of this on the hype so many people put on this past year.  Anyone who looked at the roster should have known we wouldn't be that good this past year, but as fans our hearts fell for it.  We still should have been 7-5 or so, but Frost had very little to work with.

  You hear about the turn over, but until I saw it I didn't realize how much turn over there was.  I know a lot of those numbers are inflated with the walkcons, but regardless there are very few dudes on that team that are not Frost's guys.  Unsure of the proper term, but I would call that a sh!t ton of youth on that team.  A lot of inexperience.  A lot of guys with little to know collegiate S&C etc....Longer rebuild than most thought.  I bought into the pre-season hype, but tempered it to 8-4 at best, 7-5 at worst.  Never saw the 5-7 coming.  Next year will be rough.  I am thinking it will take the majority of Frost's contract to right the ship.  

[BigPeterJ]

1 minute ago, lo country said:

  You hear about the turn over, but until I saw it I didn't realize how much turn over there was.  I know a lot of those numbers are inflated with the walkcons, but regardless there are very few dudes on that team that are not Frost's guys.  Unsure of the proper term, but I would call that a sh!t ton of youth on that team.  A lot of inexperience.  A lot of guys with little to know collegiate S&C etc....Longer rebuild than most thought.  I bought into the pre-season hype, but tempered it to 8-4 at best, 7-5 at worst.  Never saw the 5-7 coming.  Next year will be rough.  I am thinking it will take the majority of Frost's contract to right the ship.  

I really think it will only take 1 more year of mediocrity.  If we aren"t in the top 25 in 21', i will be the first to complain about Frost and staff.  Talent won't be an excuse after next year.

[I am I]

Even with the walk on inflation rate that’s a ton roster flip, astronomical. It takes walk on’s even longer to grow and produce. 
 

then figure that 93% redshirt rate?!?  That’s awesome... in the long run. But it sucks now lol 

 

the hype came because we thought AM was gonna be lights out, wasn’t. Because Mo would break 35 yarders twice a quarter, not on team.  Mills was #1 recruit, took some time to gel. Wan’dale would be sneaky good, he was but was overused. JD could pick up all slack, not so much as a deep threat. Mo Berry was all B1G, not. Transfer Daniels and the twins matched up with big boys, not. TEs would find seams, not with a shaky AM

 

and on and on from hype to reality. 
 

Good news is all these really young guys will be upperclassmen (AM is a junior?!? holy cow) next year. I’m excited. Frost has done a good job overall, save for the mistakes on the 4 game redshirt rule for a couple guys. Roster turnover has sucked for the ‘’now” but I think it’ll pay off huge very shortly. 

[Guy Chamberlin]

17 minutes ago, I am I said:

Even with the walk on inflation rate that’s a ton roster flip, astronomical. It takes walk on’s even longer to grow and produce. 
 

then figure that 93% redshirt rate?!?  That’s awesome... in the long run. But it sucks now lol 

 

the hype came because we thought AM was gonna be lights out, wasn’t. Because Mo would break 35 yarders twice a quarter, not on team.  Mills was #1 recruit, took some time to gel. Wan’dale would be sneaky good, he was but was overused. JD could pick up all slack, not so much as a deep threat. Mo Berry was all B1G, not. Transfer Daniels and the twins matched up with big boys, not. TEs would find seams, not with a shaky AM

 

and on and on from hype to reality. 
 

Good news is all these really young guys will be upperclassmen (AM is a junior?!? holy cow) next year. I’m excited. Frost has done a good job overall, save for the mistakes on the 4 game redshirt rule for a couple guys. Roster turnover has sucked for the ‘’now” but I think it’ll pay off huge very shortly. 

 

Our most experienced players anchored our defensive line -- two Pelini recruits and a heralded Oklahoma State transfer for Frost. 

 

They kinda sucked. I don't remember a Husker team getting so little pressure on the quarterback. That included average quarterbacks on unremarkable teams.

 

Experience can be swell, but great talent shines immediately, and cohesiveness can come quickly. 

[I am I]

dp

[HUSKER 37]

2 hours ago, BigPeterJ said:

I really think it will only take 1 more year of mediocrity.  If we aren"t in the top 25 in 21', i will be the first to complain about Frost and staff.  Talent won't be an excuse after next year.

How can it not?   Sure we have some great talent coming in, but according to our recruiting rankings, we're just keeping up with the rest of the middle so far.   Back when we were good, we could attract a higher percentage of talent with our coaching (reputation for getting the most out of that talent).

That will probably take all of SF's contract if it happens.

[84HuskerLaw]

5 minutes ago, HUSKER 37 said:

How can it not?   Sure we have some great talent coming in, but according to our recruiting rankings, we're just keeping up with the rest of the middle so far.   Back when we were good, we could attract a higher percentage of talent with our coaching (reputation for getting the most out of that talent).

That will probably take all of SF's contract if it happens.

I think the so called roster flip is very good but I believe the numbers are a bit overstated in that there is more roster flip in the normal year than many

realize.  Yes, the number is high but this is really the third recruiting cycle so that is roughly 70 players added by Frost in the usual signings.  Then add the big increase in overall roster count from 135 or so to 164.  That accounts for about 100 in the “flip”.     The real Frost turnover is the above normal attrition and or transfer numbers.  I don’t have a real good sense of those in recent years to compare but there’s always some in cases of coaching changes and we’ve had two HCs and revolving door on assistants in just 5 years.  
So yes - there is roster “flip” but is that turnover rate all that unusual ?

Maybe not so much as it first appears.  

[BigPeterJ]

1 hour ago, I am I said:

Even with the walk on inflation rate that’s a ton roster flip, astronomical. It takes walk on’s even longer to grow and produce. 
 

then figure that 93% redshirt rate?!?  That’s awesome... in the long run. But it sucks now lol 

 

the hype came because we thought AM was gonna be lights out, wasn’t. Because Mo would break 35 yarders twice a quarter, not on team.  Mills was #1 recruit, took some time to gel. Wan’dale would be sneaky good, he was but was overused. JD could pick up all slack, not so much as a deep threat. Mo Berry was all B1G, not. Transfer Daniels and the twins matched up with big boys, not. TEs would find seams, not with a shaky AM

 

and on and on from hype to reality. 
 

Good news is all these really young guys will be upperclassmen (AM is a junior?!? holy cow) next year. I’m excited. Frost has done a good job overall, save for the mistakes on the 4 game redshirt rule for a couple guys. Roster turnover has sucked for the ‘’now” but I think it’ll pay off huge very shortly. 

Most of this i agree with.  But Daniels was a stud. And most of these really young guys STILL wont be uperclassmen.  Some will be Sophmores, and MOST will be Freshman.   So your right in your first half, very wrong in your second half.

[BigPeterJ]

42 minutes ago, HUSKER 37 said:

How can it not?   Sure we have some great talent coming in, but according to our recruiting rankings, we're just keeping up with the rest of the middle so far.   Back when we were good, we could attract a higher percentage of talent with our coaching (reputation for getting the most out of that talent).

That will probably take all of SF's contract if it happens.

How can talent not be an excuse after next year?? You serious clark? Because after next year we will have more talent than anyone in our division.  Something we can't really say right now.

[BigPeterJ]

29 minutes ago, 84HuskerLaw said:

I think the so called roster flip is very good but I believe the numbers are a bit overstated in that there is more roster flip in the normal year than many

realize.  Yes, the number is high but this is really the third recruiting cycle so that is roughly 70 players added by Frost in the usual signings.  Then add the big increase in overall roster count from 135 or so to 164.  That accounts for about 100 in the “flip”.     The real Frost turnover is the above normal attrition and or transfer numbers.  I don’t have a real good sense of those in recent years to compare but there’s always some in cases of coaching changes and we’ve had two HCs and revolving door on assistants in just 5 years.  
So yes - there is roster “flip” but is that turnover rate all that unusual ?

Maybe not so much as it first appears.  

I reference this in another thread.  The roster flip is a real thing.  If your truly interested look at this.

 

Looking at our roster , i feel a little bit better about where we are headed than what i felt after the season.  Ive mentioned Riley didnt leave us much talent, and i didnt realize this until sfter signing day.  So our coaching and player development under this staff may not have been as bad as i thought.  I was looking in depth at our roster by position, and most of what SHOULD be our best players, are gonna be here at least 3 more years.

 

Offense-

  OL- We didnt lose anybody from last year, but we lose Jaimes, Wilson, Raridon, and Farniok after next year, but we got guys like Jurgens, Piper, Corcoran and Benhart that will only be sophmores or freshman next year.  Corcoran and Jurgens could eventually be 2 of the best linemen in the conference, and we got them both for 4 and 3 more years respectively, along with a bunch of fairly rated OL with  3 or 4 more years here, if only 25% of them develop well that will give us 3 or 4 more alongside Jurgens and Corcoran giving us a very good starting OL.

QB- We dont lose anybody from last year, and we wont for the next year either.  We lose AM and Vedral after 2 more years, and we got Luke and Smothers for 4 more years.

RB-we dont really lose anyone from last year (Washington was hardly here, and Mazour isnt anyone we cant replace), we only lose Mills after next year, and we got Thompkins, Rhamire, Sevion, and Scott III for 4 more years.  

TE- we dont lose anyone from last year, and only lose Stoll after next year.  We have Rafdal, Vokolek, and Allen here for 2 more years, and guys like Hickman here for 4 more.  

WR- We lose Noa, Woodyard, and Williams from last year, and we only lose Spielman after next year.  We have Warner, MqQuitty, and Manning here for 2 more years, and guys like Wandale here for 3 more and Betts, Fleming, and Brown here for 4 more years.

 

Defense-

 DL-We lose our entire starting line from last year, but only lose Stille after next year.  We have Keem Green, Daniels, Damian Jackson, Walker and Thomas for 2 more years (lots of unproven).  And Wildeman and Ty Robinson for 3 more, and Hutmacher and Gunnerson for 4 more. (We need a couple more here next class)

LB- we lose Barry and Davis from last year, which we wont miss much.  And we lose Honas, Miller, and Domann after next year.  We have Tanner and Eteva for 2 more years, and then a whole bunch of guys like Henrich, Hanna, Snodgrass, Nelson, and Keyshawn Greene for 3 or 4 more years.

DB- we lose Jackson and Lee from last year,  and Dismuke, Sullivan, and Bootle after next year. We have Cam Taylor and Deontai Williams for 2 more years.  We have Farmer, Newsome, Wright, Clark, Lynum, and Delancy, and 4* Pola-Gates 4* Gray and 4*Francois, for 4 more years.  

 

Conclusion:

We hardly lose anyone except for our DLine and Lamar Jackson.  And most of our best players will be here for at least 3 more years. We should only get better from here on out.  And 2 years from now we should be pretty good.  Every single position should be better than last year except for our DLine.  And every single position should keep getting better each year for the next 3 years.  The future looks alot brighter friends.

[HUSKER 37]

7 minutes ago, BigPeterJ said:

How can talent not be an excuse after next year?? You serious clark? Because after next year we will have more talent than anyone in our division.  Something we can't really say right now.

 

I'm not sure where you believe we'll ''have more talent than anyone'' in the ''weaker'' division of our conference..Probably more important in any event will be where that talent resides and how we coach them..

 

Hopefully this won't start another talent vs coaching beer commercial debate. 

[BigPeterJ]

2 minutes ago, HUSKER 37 said:

 

I'm not sure where you believe we'll ''have more talent than anyone'' in the ''weaker'' division of our conference..Probably more important in any event will be where that talent resides and how we coach them..

 

Hopefully this won't start another talent vs coaching beer commercial debate. 

Its pretty simple.  Look at our last 2 or 3 classes.  They have more talent than anyone else in our division.  You simply cant use talent ad an excuse after next year.

[HUSKER 37]

20 hours ago, BigPeterJ said:

Its pretty simple.  Look at our last 2 or 3 classes.  They have more talent than anyone else in our division.  You simply cant use talent ad an excuse after next year.

I'm not convinced we will have ''more talent than anyone else in our division'' or how you would effectively even measure it...  It's not like everybody else just stops recruiting more talent. Minnesnota and Wisky will probably be our measuring sticks for the next few seasons...   Until we get enough depth to get the second string guys more valuable experience/playing time, talent alone won't win as consistently as most of us grew up watching..  I guess I still hope for more MNCs before Football is outlawed.. But either way...Still will enjoy the ride.