OWH: Nebraska's In-State Recruiting Collapse was Worse than you Think

[Mavric]

Thanks to @HUSKER 37 (and @NUance) for pointing this out.

 

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» In the 1990s, 50 percent of NU lettermen were in-state players. This decade, it’s 37 percent. The 2017 roster included 47 in-state players, only five of whom were regular starters.

» The scholarship gap is more stark. Through the 1980s and 1990s, 29 percent of scholarship recruits were in-state players. This decade, it’s 11 percent.

» The NFL draft shows the same pattern. From 1994 (when the draft shrunk to seven rounds) to 2008, in-state players made up 31 percent of Nebraska’s draft picks (24 of 77). The past decade, it’s 16 percent (five of 31). Starting with the 2004 recruiting class, 29 Nebraska high school graduates have played in the NFL. Only 12 of them played for the Huskers.

 

...

 

The obstacles specific to Frost are more formidable:

» Limits to walk-on numbers because of Title IX. Attempts to expand the Husker roster to Osborne standards may require NU to cut a men’s sport — or create another women’s sport.

» The rising cost of college. In-state tuition to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln 20 years ago averaged $2,849. The cost — even after accounting for inflation — has more than doubled, not including increases in housing, meals, books and fees. It’s harder for native sons to accept walk-on offers.

» The evolution of college football. The sport values speed more than ever. Size and power football, where Nebraska kids traditionally excelled, is at less of a premium. Moreover, the old path to success — redshirting, developing and waiting two or three years to set foot on the field — has become antiquated. Kids want to play now.

» A generation of kids that has never seen Nebraska in the top 10. Homegrown kids used to dream of wearing the red N. Now they like Oregon and Ohio State, too.

» Demographic changes. The only reason the State of Nebraska is growing is because of its Latino population. Those kids often lack experience and interest in football.

» The biggest issue of all: Small-town depopulation. Rural Nebraska is drying up at an alarming rate, and with it the unheralded heroes of Osborne’s program.

 

OWH

[BigPeterJ]

Some of this isn't Nebraska's fault.  Farm kids dont grow up with the same type of physical labor as they did 20 years ago.  And there is less farm kids in general.  You can thank advances in technology for both of those.  At this point, their are more "country-strong" kids coming from the southern states, on smaller farms, than in Nebraska.  Hell Iowa has more.  Nebraska is mostly corn and big a$$ ranches. Corn farmers dont have to be strong  with todays technology. And our ranches are so big that their are not that many.

 

Edit: Wisconsin seems to produce the type of kids Nebraska once did.  Hog and dairy farms require more strength than corn.

[HUSKER 37]

Thanks Nuance and Mavric..er..@Nuance and @Mavric...For figuring out where I effed up and starting a new thread from it.

 

I was shocked to read the parts Mavric Quoted from the link I tried to share, As well as Beaux not even visiting schools surrounding Omaha

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“We’ve lost touch with our own,” said Jay Bellar, executive director of the Nebraska School Activities Association and former superintendent at Battle Creek. “These new coaches thought the bigger, better players are in California, Texas and Florida, and Nebraska kids can’t play. That really hurt them.

“If you’re in Omaha or Lincoln or even Battle Creek or Norfolk Catholic, you think they don’t want you so you find other places to go.”

The problem is more serious than missing potential difference- makers like Danny Woodhead, Trevor Robinson, Kyle Emanuel, Shaq Barrett, Harrison Phillips and Noah Fant, the Omaha South graduate now shining at Iowa. Nebraska’s roster evolution since 1997 has increasingly abandoned “foundational” players, as Makovicka called them. Low-maintenance recruits whose determination and unselfishness permeates the depth chart. They lead workouts in the offseason — and rallies in the fourth quarter.

“Big hearts made a difference,” said former Omaha Central coach William Reed. “Nebraska kids just flat-out played harder for the University of Nebraska. ... It’s not all about five-star or four-star. It’s like, how big is the heart that goes along with the stars?”

Frost’s challenge is to rebuild relationships with Nebraska high schools, restore the developmental system that turned raw talent into hidden gems and revive a locker room that once developed unity and resolve.

It won’t be easy. The in-state recruiting demise is complicated. The talent pool is shallower than it was in Osborne’s day. Fewer kids grow up determined to play for the Huskers. It’s a problem of supply, demand and inspiration.

 

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From 1999 through 2008, Nebraska signed 29 players from the Omaha metro area. The past 10 years? Five.

 

 

[BIG ERN]

To me this is the biggest reason and how our offenses have looked. 

 

» The evolution of college football. The sport values speed more than ever. Size and power football, where Nebraska kids traditionally excelled, is at less of a premium. Moreover, the old path to success — redshirting, developing and waiting two or three years to set foot on the field — has become antiquated. Kids want to play now.

[NUinID]

9 hours ago, BigPeterJ said:

Some of this isn't Nebraska's fault.  Farm kids dont grow up with the same type of physical labor as they did 20 years ago.  And there is less farm kids in general.  You can thank advances in technology for both of those.  At this point, their are more "country-strong" kids coming from the southern states, on smaller farms, than in Nebraska.  Hell Iowa has more.  Nebraska is mostly corn and big a$$ ranches. Corn farmers dont have to be strong  with todays technology. And our ranches are so big that their are not that many.

 

Edit: Wisconsin seems to produce the type of kids Nebraska once did.  Hog and dairy farms require more strength than corn.

 

I think there are several factors that have played a roll in the University of Nebraska becoming less Nebraskan in its roster.  I am not sure your "country strong" view of rural Nebraska is very accurate.  Kids playing 8 man football in Nebraska lift just as much in the weight room as any kid in Omaha or Atlanta, Ga. for that matter.  The manual labor involved in any farming, including dairy and hog farms is greatly reduced.  

 

The last national championship for Nebraska in 1997 was a high water mark for homegrown Nebraska players.  The talent in the state began to decline after that. There hasn't been as much raw talent so that will lower the number of players from in state.  I think we are starting to see the talent level come back though.  

 

The amount of raw talent is also down because there are fewer kids playing football.  There are a lot of reason's for this. Kids are specializing in 1 sport more, that happens even in your small rural schools, though not to the extent in the bigger schools.  Moms and dad are worried about concussions so they don't let  their kids play.  Other/different sports are becoming popular.  Soccer keeps getting bigger,  Lacrosse is becoming very popular.  Lots of kids not playing anything.  For lack of a better term they are lazy.  They don't want to put the time into playing football. It takes a lot of  time.  It is a lot easier to do nothing.   

 

The constant changing of offenses has had an effect on player development.  Nebraska ran a power I option based offense from basically 1978 through 2003. Consequently HS's ran that type of offense.  Central HS in Omaha produced a ton of great running backs for basically 20 years.  With a sprinkling of other great backs from other metro Omaha schools.  The last one to earn a scholarship before Jaylon Bradley was David Horne I believe and that was what, 2002.    It then went West Coast offense, Spread, West Coast with spread elements and now back to a spread offense.  

 

Smaller schools SDU, SDSU, NDS, NDSU and so on playing at the 1AA level are pulling a ton of kids away from Nebraska that in the past would have walked on at Nebraska.  In 1997 all of those schools were division 2 schools with limited amounts of scholarships.  Now they have 65 and play some very good football.  The lure of playing football on a good team and getting a full ride scholarship to do it is a big draw.  College tuition is expensive.  Though it does seem that Frost and Co are getting some of these kids to come and walk on at Nebraska again.  We will see if it continues.  

 

Lastly what the article states is true.  Bill Callahan, Bo Pelini, and Mike Riley didn't think the talent was good enough in the state. 

 

Callahan was the worst about this and severely cut the walk on program to boot.  He wanted to run it almost exactly like a pro football  team.  I think he would have been happy to have exactly 85 guys on the team.  

 

Pelini was pretty bad also.  He let numerous players go to other schools, mainly Iowa, because he didn't trust what he was seeing because they played in smaller classes (Ott and Byzata). He slow played kids (Harrison Phillips) or only recruited them for the specific position he wanted them to play, but they didn't want to play (Fant).  He pissed off HS coaches in the Metro Omaha area and burned a lot of bridges.  

 

Riley was probably the best of the bunch, but he wasn't here long enough to really know.  He was really only here 2 full recruiting cycles. 

 

 

 

 

[gorp512]

This all seems like a worth while effort for some depth and to build relationships into the schools, but no one is winning championships-division, conference, national- because of walk-ons. They are right. The game has changed. Change with it. 

[Toe]

9 minutes ago, gorp512 said:

no one is winning championships-division, conference, national- because of walk-ons.

 

No one was doing it back then, either, except that one team...

[NUance]

Here are a couple facts that stood out to me:  

 

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Here’s the most glaring fact: In the past 10 seasons (2008-17), two Husker lettermen came to NU from eight-man high school football. Lance Thorell and Taylor Dixon, walk-ons from Loomis and Wauneta-Palisade, respectively, finished their careers in 2011 and 2012.

 

despite  

 

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It’s astounding considering eight-man comprises 24.7 percent of the state’s high school players — no state in America had more eight-man (or nine-man) players than Nebraska’s 2,965 in 2016-17. Even more astounding considering NU’s alumni of eight-man players who turned into standouts: Dean Steinkuhler. Connealy. The Makovicka brothers. Scott Shanle.  

 

Okay, I realize they're playing against lessor competition.  But does that mean ALL of the eight-man players are lessor?    24.7 percent! 

[HUSKER 37]

10 hours ago, NUance said:

Here are a couple facts that stood out to me:  

Here’s the most glaring fact: In the past 10 seasons (2008-17), two Husker lettermen came to NU from eight-man high school football. Lance Thorell and Taylor Dixon, walk-ons from Loomis and Wauneta-Palisade, respectively, finished their careers in 2011 and 2012.

 

despite  

 

 

It’s astounding considering eight-man comprises 24.7 percent of the state’s high school players — no state in America had more eight-man (or nine-man) players than Nebraska’s 2,965 in 2016-17. Even more astounding considering NU’s alumni of eight-man players who turned into standouts: Dean Steinkuhler. Connealy. The Makovicka brothers. Scott Shanle.  

 

 

 

Okay, I realize they're playing against lessor competition.  But does that mean ALL of the eight-man players are lessor?    24.7 percent! 

 

That percentage surprised me too...

I grew up in the ''Big City'' (Pop.5640)  7 miles East of Lance Thorell's Loomis, But I have never seen an 8-man game..I think his uncles were playing around the same time I was,  in class D (I thought 11-man)...and may have had a cousin playing for us at the time.  They were all known for their speed and competed in State Track meets.. 

[The Dude]

18 hours ago, BIG ERN said:

To me this is the biggest reason and how our offenses have looked. 

 

» The evolution of college football. The sport values speed more than ever. Size and power football, where Nebraska kids traditionally excelled, is at less of a premium. Moreover, the old path to success — redshirting, developing and waiting two or three years to set foot on the field — has become antiquated. Kids want to play now.

 

We've tried to ride that trend the last 17 years and the results haven't been great.  Maybe go back to valuing size and power and see what happens?

 

It's not like we're obligated to value the same thing as the rest of the country.  Tom never did it that way.  He had some pretty good success, if I recall correctly. 

[southernoregonhusker]

3 hours ago, The Dude said:

 

We've tried to ride that trend the last 17 years and the results haven't been great.  Maybe go back to valuing size and power and see what happens?

 

It's not like we're obligated to value the same thing as the rest of the country.  Tom never did it that way.  He had some pretty good success, if I recall correctly. 

I'm a little confused.  Are we talking about specific positions here?  I remember having a lot of sad January's as I watched our Huskers get destroyed by faster Miami and Florida State teams.  Tom finally decided to get faster guys, specificially on defense, and the rest is history.  

[BIG ERN]

1 hour ago, southernoregonhusker said:

I'm a little confused.  Are we talking about specific positions here?  I remember having a lot of sad January's as I watched our Huskers get destroyed by faster Miami and Florida State teams.  Tom finally decided to get faster guys, specificially on defense, and the rest is history.  

Running a spread offense like we have compared to running a triple option offense....you will find more Nebraska kids can fit the mold of the latter. I'm not saying I am for going back to that, but just stating that is part of why we see less of them. 

[BigRedBuster]

20 minutes ago, BIG ERN said:

Running a spread offense like we have compared to running a triple option offense....you will find more Nebraska kids can fit the mold of the latter.

I don't agree with that.

[BIG ERN]

27 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

I don't agree with that.

I know. We need to quit letting other states poach our Wandale Robinson type athletes out of Nebraska. 

[The Dude]

2 hours ago, southernoregonhusker said:

I'm a little confused.  Are we talking about specific positions here?  I remember having a lot of sad January's as I watched our Huskers get destroyed by faster Miami and Florida State teams.  Tom finally decided to get faster guys, specificially on defense, and the rest is history.  

 

Yeah, defense kind of has to be reactionary.  If you don't keep up with what offenses are doing, you're screwed.

 

On offense it seems kind of backwards trying to do what defenses are already built around stopping, especially in Nebraska's unique situation.