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The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)


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Just now, RedDenver said:

You are probably correct, but you're estimating that the virus spread is accelerating. The testing numbers don't telling us for sure right now because it's impossible to separate the newly infected from those who have been infected for a while due to the lack of testing. I'm cautioning against statements of certainty when the evidence is uncertain.

Fair enough. Numbers out of Italy suggest it will take 2  weeks ir more after lockdown to see cases level off. We still have spring breakers on beaches in large crowds so I'd say we are further than 2 weeks away.

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12 hours ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

Was hoping it wouldn't have to come to that but if we could do that for 2-3 weeks to just eradicate it, like China seems to be getting closer to doing, it might be what we need to do.

 

 

COVID-19-Graphs-Roundup-Body-1-03112020.

 

4 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

Sobering numbers out of Italy today. 6000 new cases and 627 new deaths, both highs by a good margin..they've been on lockdown for 10 days. 

Take a look at the chart @Moiraine posted. From the lockdown on 2/4 the peak daily treatments came 13 days later on 2/17. Remember that there's a delay between enacting a measure to slow the spread and the effects of that actions being seen.

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Just now, RedDenver said:

 

Take a look at the chart @Moiraine posted. From the lockdown on 2/4 the peak daily treatments came 13 days later on 2/17. Remember that there's a delay between enacting a measure to slow the spread and the effects of that actions being seen.

Right that's what I've been saying. 2 weeks from a full lockdown to see cases level off. We aren't even close to a full lockdown right now so we can't really start the 2 week clock yet. Also I wonder how much medical supplies they had in China. If they were more prepared they may have been able to stop a small spike in cases as COVID patients flood hospitals 

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Reading about Italy just has me confused. They still appear to be an outlier in this whole thing, could be other countries under reporting and testing. I also read to keep the fashion industry running in northern Italy they used cheaper Chinese labor from the hotspot in China. Many flights moving back in forth from the Wuhan area right before the breakout. That combined with the older Italy population could make them the exception and not the rule. Either way it’s tragic. 

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4 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

Right that's what I've been saying. 2 weeks from a full lockdown to see cases level off. We aren't even close to a full lockdown right now so we can't really start the 2 week clock yet. Also I wonder how much medical supplies they had in China. If they were more prepared they may have been able to stop a small spike in cases as COVID patients flood hospitals 

A full lockdown may or may not be the only course of action. We aren't certain what voluntary social distancing measures will do. The goal is to flatten the curve to stay within healthcare capacity, so we'll only know in hind sight whether it was enough and what worked and didn't work. To play devil's advocate, China's full lockdown might mean they are fighting against the spread of the virus for years as opposed to partial lockdowns or social distancing measures which might be 6-18 months. Nobody really knows the long-term impacts.

 

China also built two new hospitals in 10 days in Wuhan, so they were very aggressive in fighting the virus. The US military does have some amount of supplies like masks and respirators in storage as part of the strategic reserve, but it's unclear how much they actually have and whether that would make much difference.

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10 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

A full lockdown may or may not be the only course of action. We aren't certain what voluntary social distancing measures will do. The goal is to flatten the curve to stay within healthcare capacity, so we'll only know in hind sight whether it was enough and what worked and didn't work. To play devil's advocate, China's full lockdown might mean they are fighting against the spread of the virus for years as opposed to partial lockdowns or social distancing measures which might be 6-18 months. Nobody really knows the long-term impacts.

 

China also built two new hospitals in 10 days in Wuhan, so they were very aggressive in fighting the virus. The US military does have some amount of supplies like masks and respirators in storage as part of the strategic reserve, but it's unclear how much they actually have and whether that would make much difference.

My point is not much when people aren't listening. Crowds on beaches yesterday..that sort of behavior creates outcomes that our system doesn't have the capacity for. And China building hospitals specifically to combat COVID is my point. If we aren't doing that chances are we won't see an outcome similar to theirs. Hospitals will be hotspots for infections unless they can successfully keep those in the hospital without COVID separated. I'm not hopeful we will be able to do that at the moment 

 

 

 

Edit: I would argue a full lockdown isnt neccessary if we weren't so far behind on testing. At this point it's hard for me to see us getting control of this situation without a lockdown. Unless we could test millions a day which we aren't even close to being able to do 

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3 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

My point is not much when people aren't listening. Crowds on beaches yesterday..that sort of behavior creates outcomes that our system doesn't have the capacity for. And China building hospitals specifically to combat COVID is my point. If we aren't doing that chances are we won't see an outcome similar to theirs. Hospitals will be hotspots for infections unless they can successfully keep those in the hospital without COVID separated. I'm not hopeful we will be able to do that at the moment 

I agree. But I'm also wary of forming strong opinions around speculations about an uncertain future.

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4 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

I agree. But I'm also wary of forming strong opinions around speculations about an uncertain future.

That's fair but at the same time this is a situation in which we really should be preparing for the worst and hoping for the best 

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50 minutes ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

Reading about Italy just has me confused. They still appear to be an outlier in this whole thing, could be other countries under reporting and testing. I also read to keep the fashion industry running in northern Italy they used cheaper Chinese labor from the hotspot in China. Many flights moving back in forth from the Wuhan area right before the breakout. That combined with the older Italy population could make them the exception and not the rule. Either way it’s tragic. 

 

We could probably chart the course that led to four countries getting coronavirus bad and early (China, Korea, Italy, and Iran), but the globalization was virtually inevitable and there won't be much in the way of outliers, unless it's countries and populations notably less affected. Virologists run pandemic models all the time, and this is how they play out.

 

Just a few days ago people were wondering why the entire continent of Africa was an outlier. But that public health s#!tshow is just getting started. 

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sobering

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/coronavirus-outbreak-a-cascade-of-warnings-heard-but-unheeded/ar-BB11pYY1

Quote

 

The outbreak of the respiratory virus began in China and was quickly spread around the world by air travelers, who ran high fevers. In the United States, it was first detected in Chicago, and 47 days later, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. By then it was too late: 110 million Americans were expected to become ill, leading to 7.7 million hospitalized and 586,000 dead.

That scenario, code-named “Crimson Contagion,” was simulated by the Trump administration’s Department of Health and Human Services in a series of exercises that ran from last January to August.

The simulation’s sobering results — contained in a draft report dated October 2019 that has not previously been reported — drove home just how underfunded, underprepared and uncoordinated the federal government would be for a life-or-death battle with a virus for which no treatment existed.

 

 

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