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The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)


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1 hour ago, funhusker said:

What restrictions did NE lift in May 4th?  And everything I’ve seen says our numbers are still increasing.

Not sure when, but at some point in the last couple weeks, they allowed restaurants and bars to open back up in all counties except the hot spots.  For instance, Last Friday when I landed in Omaha, I was able to go down in the Old Market and actually eat in a restaurant on actual plates and not styrofoam takeout.  It was glorious.  Restaurants I think are at half capacity and tables spread apart.  The person I was with made the comment that it was nice not having tables right beside you listening to conversations...etc.

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Just because Nebraska and other states "reopened" doesn't mean everyone's just going out and living life like they used to. You can say you're open for business again, but you can't force people to go out.

 

I'm not doing anything different now than I did through March & April. Still limit going out, still wear a mask wherever I go in public, no socializing unless we can spread out, no eating out, nothing like that. I gather most people are doing the same thing.  That, combined with most people wearing masks, is likely keeping transfer (and thus numbers) down.

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I feel much the same, @knapplc. We never had lockdowns here. Many workplaces, like mine, have continued operating the same. The only "eased restrictions" I have really noticed is restaurants going from take-out only to 50% occupancy. (I live between a DJ's Dugout and The Good Life; I would grab take-out occasionally but have avoided them since the changes). Schools aren't open; large gathering venues are still effectively closed, or at least severely limited, with capacity and social-distancing restrictions. And they shouldn't paint in statewide strokes; hard-hit areas like Dakota and Hall County are still in Phase 1 without eased restrictions. (I think this is the correct strategy going forward, opening and closing smaller areas as hot spots emerge, but it requires adequate testing and transparency).

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We opened our lobby on Tuesday. We didn't announce it to the public or anything. Our bank is requiring customers wear masks even though our county and city ordinances don't require masks in banks. We've had maybe 10 people in the lobby each day this week. I'd say 80% were wearing masks. I only overheard one customer b!^@hing about the plastic shields and masks, and she went on a rant about China creating the virus to hold the world economy hostage (lol). Most people seem to be staying cautious by using our drive-thru or mobile/online banking. 

 

So that's my little story about reopening in my world.

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Those of you saying that people are not going out are probably not going out yourselves, right?  So, how would you know?

 

My gym opened back up and has been packed...the park by my house has been busy with kids playing.

 

Workouts for sports have started back up at schools...and I think fake-legion ball starts tomorrow.

 

Again, I am not a freedom fighter and I don't think my rights are being F'ed with at all, but people are out all over here in Omaha.

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21 minutes ago, BlitzFirst said:

Well he is an editor of a website that posts news.

 

 

K. Nate Silver is a statistician as are most of the people he employs, I assume. The website mostly does statistical analyses of sports, politics, and science topics. The people arguing in these tweets are not doing a statistical analysis on the numbers, just talking about things being counted twice or incorrectly counted, but there's a very high chance he understands the numbers better than a health care worker.

It's kind of like the question of whether a soldier on the ground knows more about the battle on the whole than someone in a helicopter.

 

Here's a podcast they did saying the covid-19 death count is probably too low:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-covid-19-death-count-is-almost-certainly-too-low/

 

and an article about deaths not being counted as covid-19 deaths:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-deaths/

 

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17 minutes ago, BlitzFirst said:

K, now let's talk about the guy who posted it.  He rolled out healthcare.gov for Obama and was moved into a role under his administration serving as the acting Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) which was a position he held for 2 years during the Obama administration.

 

He's the guy that helped architect ACA’s Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health (HITECH) with health exchanges online.  He's the guy that rolled out how physicians code deaths, sickness, disease, etc. so that it can be consumed electronically through the Direct Project (from NIS) or via direct exchange via HL7.  Because of Obama and his leadership, around 96% of all hospitals in this country use electronic medical records and as such, code patient data/sickness/death in those electronic medical records.

 

Now should I listen to a guy like that before I listen to a baseball and political statistician?  In my opinion, I definitely should...which is why I posted what I did.

 

You're welcome to disagree.

 

 

You asked if a journalist knows more than a healthcare expert. You referred to Slavitt as a "healthcare expert" without bothering to explain any of the above. My response is on healthcare experts in general.

 

That said, I do trust Silver over him. The reason I trust Silver in this case is because I've been following him for 6 years and I know he wouldn't have made the statement on a whim, especially because of who he's responding to - he would have fully researched it before making a statement like this. He is all for accurately counting these deaths and not under counting them. He would never try to refute something like this unless he was sure.

Also:

 

 

 

 

It seems the guy on Reddit made a mistake and then Slavitt posted the mistake.

 

Most important point: "And most if not all of that increase appears to be counted under the CDC's Covid death totals too"

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