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The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)


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4 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

It’s possible we could have done better, it’s also possible that in the long-run, the virus is going to make its way through most population centers no matter the mitigation.  Europe is increasing, parts of Asia increasing, parts of South America increasing.  
There are a few papers in medical journals that are starting to look at the herd immunity levels  for Covid-19 being 20-40% of the population.  Many of the highly hit population centers reached that point and then saw a drastic downturn in case numbers. 
It’s a VERY contagious virus and it’s possible that it’s going to run it’s natural course at some point no matter the mitigation.  
 

Remember this, regardless of sports being played or not, the whole point of mitigation back in March and April was to spread out the infection numbers across many months.  It was NOT to necessarily completely stop the virus.  

Breaking this down bit by bit, of course it may run through the whole population, but the slower it does that, the more time we have to create therapies and vaccines ultimately driving down the death rate. Getting through this faster will cause more death, period. As far as herd immunity goes, we don't actually know. There are also experts out there who don't think its possible at all. 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/24/894148860/without-a-vaccine-researchers-say-herd-immunity-may-never-be-achieved

 

As far as places that have seen a downturn, specifically the northeast, they have seen such because they are taking precautions. 

 

The point of mitigation is still to flatten the curve, but the problem in America is we never really did that. We have let it sweep through our country region by region. 

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5 hours ago, Nebfanatic said:

Breaking this down bit by bit, of course it may run through the whole population, but the slower it does that, the more time we have to create therapies and vaccines ultimately driving down the death rate. Getting through this faster will cause more death, period. As far as herd immunity goes, we don't actually know. There are also experts out there who don't think its possible at all. 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/24/894148860/without-a-vaccine-researchers-say-herd-immunity-may-never-be-achieved

 

As far as places that have seen a downturn, specifically the northeast, they have seen such because they are taking precautions. 

 

The point of mitigation is still to flatten the curve, but the problem in America is we never really did that. We have let it sweep through our country region by region. 

I think we’ve still got a ways to go before we decide that the northeast is better off because of x or y. Massachusetts has suffered more Covid deaths than Texas so far. Obviously Texas’ death numbers lag further behind, but it is also nearly 5x bigger in terms of population. 
 

New York State has suffered > 25,000 deaths. I believe the precautions certainly help, but there might be some evidence that these places were simply hit earlier than others. 

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11 minutes ago, Jason Sitoke said:

I think we’ve still got a ways to go before we decide that the northeast is better off because of x or y. Massachusetts has suffered more Covid deaths than Texas so far. Obviously Texas’ death numbers lag further behind, but it is also nearly 5x bigger in terms of population. 
 

New York State has suffered > 25,000 deaths. I believe the precautions certainly help, but there might be some evidence that these places were simply hit earlier than others. 

Texas has also seen an unusually high number of pneumonia deaths not classified as COVID this year. Same thing is happening in Florida. I see where you are coming from as far as NY getting it early but then it would seem California wouldn't be having as much trouble. There is alot of data and it doesn't always make sense realistically its going to take time to parse it all out. 

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1 hour ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

Nah. Today's just one of those days when the bad stuff seems worse and the good stuff is hard to make out.

 

It's frustrating and saddening.

Just wait...Biden/Rice is going to give us some of the best quotes over...Biden messing up...Rice cleaning up his mess.  Biden doing old school pity racist comments and Rice coming in to to tell us what he really meant.  

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