The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

[Guy Chamberlin]

On 4/28/2021 at 2:24 PM, Jason Sitoke said:

First of all, masks should be worn.  Let's get that out of the way (groundbreaking, I know).  But I'm a little perplexed at how simple the answer seems to be in all cases.

Cases go down --> 'Good job everyone, we're all wearing masks.'

Cases go up --> 'Stupid people not wearing masks'

 

Fallacy of the single cause - Wikipedia

 

I'm a big fan of complexity, because that's where all the unsatisfying answers live. But for the sake of shorthand, the mask wearing thing isn't that misleading.

 

India is a big country, and like America its behaviors vary by region and culture. India most likely underreported cases and deaths by a considerable factor, as have Russia, Mexico, and perhaps much of the world. Epidemiologists have been trying to figure out why high density populations with poor health infrastructures -- like India, Bangladesh, Nigeria and others  -- had far fewer COVID fatalities than had been predicted, much fewer than Europe and the U.S. They're still a bit baffled, although one theory is that these populations had been exposed to previous coronavirus-related outbreaks that may leave a marker in people which makes the next coronavirus mutation less severe and largely unreported. 

 

But is this really that perplexing?

 

"This is really serious. You need to wear masks" = Cases go down

"Congratulations! Cases are down. Let's go back to the way things were!" = Cases go back up.

 

When India went back to the way things were, it meant huge throngs at public gatherings. For a population barely vaccinated.

 

I believe the forensics on Sturgis South Dakota last summer suggest a celebration that was way too early, and it may have cost thousands of lives. 

[Ratt Mhule]

3 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

https://www.mediaite.com/biden/cnn-medical-analyst-calls-out-biden-for-mask-heavy-socially-distanced-speech-sent-the-wrong-message/
 

I agree with the point the physician is trying to get across.  The CDC and those making governmental decisions need to give the skeptical people a reason to get vaccinated.  If life is gonna be the same for them with mask and social distancing amongst the vaccinated, then I can also see why people who aren’t vaccinated tell themselves what’s the point then.  
 

let’s get life back to normal for those vaccinated and more skeptics will join the crowd of vaccinated people 

I actually agree. The CDC needs to stop being so conservative with vaccinated people. Give people some hope and some light at the end of the tunnel!

[Jason Sitoke]

1 minute ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

I'm a big fan of complexity, because that's where all the unsatisfying answers live. But for the sake of shorthand, the mask wearing thing isn't that misleading.

 

India is a big country, and like America its behaviors vary by region and culture. India most likely underreported cases and deaths by a considerable factor, as have Russia, Mexico, and perhaps much of the world. Epidemiologists have been trying to figure out why high density populations with poor health infrastructures -- like India, Bangladesh, Nigeria and others  -- had far fewer COVID fatalities than had been predicted, much fewer than Europe and the U.S. They're still a bit baffled, although one theory is that these populations had been exposed to previous coronavirus-related outbreaks that may leave a marker in people which makes the next coronavirus mutation less severe and largely unreported. 

 

But is this really that perplexing?

 

"This is really serious. You need to wear masks" = Cases go down

"Congratulations! Cases are down. Let's go back to the way things were!" = Cases go back up.

 

When India went back to the way things were, it meant huge throngs at public gatherings. For a population barely vaccinated.

 

I believe the forensics on Sturgis South Dakota last summer suggest a celebration that was way too early, and it may have cost thousands of lives. 

I don't think it's perplexing at all.  It may be fundamentally the root cause in all cases.  My issue is this logic:

Cases are going up because people aren't wearing masks.  I know they're not wearing masks because cases are going up.

There are likely other factors as well.  Take Michigan.  It's a clear outlier, and has been for weeks.  Why?  I see articles claiming it's primarily due to mask compliance and variants.  That alone would not seem to explain the distinction, since those factors exist elsewhere in the country as well.

[Guy Chamberlin]

Just now, Jason Sitoke said:

I don't think it's perplexing at all.  It may be fundamentally the root cause in all cases.  My issue is this logic:

Cases are going up because people aren't wearing masks.  I know they're not wearing masks because cases are going up.

There are likely other factors as well.  Take Michigan.  It's a clear outlier, and has been for weeks.  Why?  I see articles claiming it's primarily due to mask compliance and variants.  That alone would not seem to explain the distinction, since those factors exist elsewhere in the country as well.

 

Sure. But per the bold: you seem to be choosing a single person making the broadest assumption to undermine the fact that mask compliance explains quite a bit, if not everything. And unlike the anonymous person you're citing, a lot of folks understand there are variables in play. 

[Jason Sitoke]

4 hours ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Sure. But per the bold: you seem to be choosing a single person making the broadest assumption to undermine the fact that mask compliance explains quite a bit, if not everything. And unlike the anonymous person you're citing, a lot of folks understand there are variables in play. 

My concern is that if there are other factors at play, we don't seem all that interested in understanding them.  Sure, we make general references to things like ventilation, population density, seasonal variances in viral response, etc...but I rarely see anything other than people clamoring for masks.

India, for instance, is a great example of a socio-economically stratified country. A country with dense slums in urban areas where people work to survive in conditions that don't lend themselves to physical distancing or isolation.  Whether you wear a mask or not in these conditions may not be all that consequential.  We seem to make general concessions to these circumstances, but overall I don't seem to see much conversation evolve past 'wear masks, stupid!'.

 

My perspective might not be shared, and that's fine.  Maybe I'm wrestling with semantics at this point, and my original reason for chiming in is now lost.  What motivates me to care about how information is presented and how conclusions are drawn is ... what if something changes?  Are we in a position to truly observe a dynamic if we have already decided that B is always caused by A all the time?  Masking is a factor, likely a primary one in these outbreaks.  If another factor became dominant, how long would it take for us to notice it?  

[teachercd]

My friends MIL just died.  No one could go see her until she was literally dying.  Then it had to be masked and vaccinated and 2 at a time only.

Honestly, it is easier to keep it all tight then to loosen up, so I get it.

 

 

[Scarlet]

"A forum of scientific advisers set up by the government warned Indian officials in early March of a new and more contagious variant of the coronavirus taking hold in the country, five scientists who are part of the forum told Reuters.

 

Despite the warning, four of the scientists said the federal government did not seek to impose major restrictions to stop the spread of the virus. Millions of largely unmasked people attended religious festivals and political rallies that were held by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, leaders of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and opposition politicians."

 

 

[BigRedBuster]

 

[teachercd]

28 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Just wait...

[BigRedBuster]

31 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Just wait...

Meh.....believe it or not, it’s not that much fun spending THAT much time with your wife even if you love them dearly.  Now, you have a bunch of couples that have spent a year cooped up together. 
 

You really think that’s going to cause a bunch of bumping uglies?

[teachercd]

1 minute ago, BigRedBuster said:

Meh.....believe it or not, it’s not that much fun spending THAT much time with your wife even if you love them dearly.  Now, you have a bunch of couples that have spent a year cooped up together. 
 

You really think that’s going to cause a bunch of bumping uglies?

While I 100% agree with you, from what I have seen the amount of drinking went way up, which probably means there was a lot of extra stanky getting on some hang-downs...

 

I mean, even people that are sick of each other (99% of all married/living together couples) will eventually drink enough to find their partner "sexy" again...for one night.

 

It will either be a big surge in babies, divorces or murder-suicides hahaha

[jaws]

15 hours ago, teachercd said:

While I 100% agree with you, from what I have seen the amount of drinking went way up, which probably means there was a lot of extra stanky getting on some hang-downs...

 

I mean, even people that are sick of each other (99% of all married/living together couples) will eventually drink enough to find their partner "sexy" again...for one night.

 

It will either be a big surge in babies, divorces or murder-suicides hahaha

 

At this point my money is on divorces and maybe murder-suicides. Wow, that sounds morbid. 

[teachercd]

21 minutes ago, jaws said:

 

At this point my money is on divorces and maybe murder-suicides. Wow, that sounds morbid. 

If I was a divorce lawyer, I would be dropping off a bottle of wine and a six pack at every house in my neighborhood...along with my business card.

[Jason Sitoke]

2 minutes ago, teachercd said:

If I was a divorce lawyer, I would be dropping off a bottle of wine and a six pack at every house in my neighborhood...along with my business card.

Or you could just start calling houses and hanging up when the husband answers.  Stir the pot.

[teachercd]

9 minutes ago, Jason Sitoke said:

Or you could just start calling houses and hanging up when the husband answers.  Stir the pot.

Oh my god!  

Me in my neighborhood:

 

"Handguns, get your handguns, today only, married couples special, buy one bullet, get one free"