Jason Sitoke Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 1 minute ago, teachercd said: I had a weird cold/flu two summers ago and for about a week I could not move. It was brutal. I can't remember the last time I had the typical flu of throwing up in a trash can while s#!tting. I get the flu shot every year as well. I believe that is called 'stomach flu', which is not really influenza. It's gastroenteritis. Link to comment
Jason Sitoke Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 3 hours ago, Scarlet said: Maybe, but if it was much higher than half the population had it, then if you throw in vaccinations, we should be reaching the ever elusive "herd immunity' level especially if some of the research holds that reinfection rates are very low. That doesn't seem to be happening yet so either infection rates weren't that high or reinfection is a thing. Not sure how you made this jump. The R0 factor is pretty clearly bounded in high population centers like NYC, with the city reporting daily new cases in the 20s at this point. Only 45% of the city's population is fully vaccinated, so it appears that if you assume conservatively 40% of the city had been previously infected, and that vaccinated and unvaccinated people were just as likely to be previously infected...the percentage of the population that is no longer vulnerable is 0.45 + (0.55*0.4) = 67%. That's pretty well in line with what some experts said (although seeing each of them take a crack at this, and coming up with numbers from 20% to 90% doesn't inspire much confidence that this is all that accurate). The R0 factor is a rollup of how much contact people are having with each other, the ease of transmission of the virus (delta is apparently much more contagious), etc. So with the country opening up and this new variant in play, I wouldn't expect cases to continue to fall predictably...likely see some bumps due to pockets of the country that are still vulnerable, apparently by their own choosing at this point. Link to comment
Scarlet Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 6 hours ago, Jason Sitoke said: Not sure how you made this jump. The R0 factor is pretty clearly bounded in high population centers like NYC, with the city reporting daily new cases in the 20s at this point. Only 45% of the city's population is fully vaccinated, so it appears that if you assume conservatively 40% of the city had been previously infected, and that vaccinated and unvaccinated people were just as likely to be previously infected...the percentage of the population that is no longer vulnerable is 0.45 + (0.55*0.4) = 67%. That's pretty well in line with what some experts said (although seeing each of them take a crack at this, and coming up with numbers from 20% to 90% doesn't inspire much confidence that this is all that accurate). The R0 factor is a rollup of how much contact people are having with each other, the ease of transmission of the virus (delta is apparently much more contagious), etc. So with the country opening up and this new variant in play, I wouldn't expect cases to continue to fall predictably...likely see some bumps due to pockets of the country that are still vulnerable, apparently by their own choosing at this point. What jump is that? Link to comment
Scarlet Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 7 hours ago, Archy1221 said: We are under 10,000 infections per day. Your point? Link to comment
Archy1221 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 11 hours ago, Scarlet said: Your point? That the US is on average under 10,000 infection per day. 2 1 Link to comment
RedDenver Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 On 6/19/2021 at 6:22 PM, teachercd said: Wait, he was vaxxed and still got it? Group of about a dozen kids and adults I know got covid, all the adults had been vaccinated and between them had gotten Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J. They were at a grad party together and everyone of them got covid. The kids (under 12 and unvaccinated) were pretty sick for about a week, the adults had very mild symptoms and probably wouldn't have known they had it except that the kids tested positive so they all got tested. Link to comment
teachercd Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 2 hours ago, RedDenver said: Group of about a dozen kids and adults I know got covid, all the adults had been vaccinated and between them had gotten Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J. They were at a grad party together and everyone of them got covid. The kids (under 12 and unvaccinated) were pretty sick for about a week, the adults had very mild symptoms and probably wouldn't have known they had it except that the kids tested positive so they all got tested. I Have heard the JJ one is the least effective. Which is probably why they offered it to me. Link to comment
NebraskaHarry Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 2 hours ago, RedDenver said: Group of about a dozen kids and adults I know got covid, all the adults had been vaccinated and between them had gotten Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J. They were at a grad party together and everyone of them got covid. The kids (under 12 and unvaccinated) were pretty sick for about a week, the adults had very mild symptoms and probably wouldn't have known they had it except that the kids tested positive so they all got tested. Sounds like a working vaccine to me. Link to comment
RedDenver Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, NebraskaHarry said: Sounds like a working vaccine to me. Me too. I was just sharing my own experience that the vaccine doesn't prevent getting covid but is still effective. Link to comment
NebraskaHarry Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 4 hours ago, RedDenver said: Me too. I was just sharing my own experience that the vaccine doesn't prevent getting covid but is still effective. That's what I thinking. Just agreeing that it works too. Link to comment
Jason Sitoke Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 On 6/20/2021 at 6:55 PM, Scarlet said: What jump is that? This jump... On 6/20/2021 at 8:52 AM, Scarlet said: ... so either infection rates weren't that high or reinfection is a thing. I don't think those are the 2 possibilities. The whole herd immunity threshold was never well understood, nor did anyone bother to describe what statistics might show when we're approaching such a threshold. It seems that maybe your expectations aren't being met, but what did you assume this would look like? Cases monotonically converging to zero nationwide? Clearly, the US is not a homogenous sample group, with regions varying significantly in terms of the expected vulnerability of the local population. Take into account that domestic travel has increased significantly, which means more exposure and more potential for vulnerable people to get infected. So yes, it's possible that a significant portion of the population has been previously exposed, and that reinfection really isn't contributing to these new cases, and yet cases are where they are. Link to comment
Archy1221 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 56 minutes ago, suh_fan93 said: Mississippi was #2. 1 1 Link to comment
DevoHusker Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 50 minutes ago, Archy1221 said: Mississippi was #2. Washington (49.09), Pennsylvania (48.41), Minnesota (48.39), and New York (43.20) make up the bottom five with Michigan (40.45) ranking dead last, according to the study. 1 1 Link to comment
admo Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 I'm not sure when I will stop wearing a mask. I think it's been 15 months. Even though I got both vaccination shots in March. It is nice seeing peoples faces in public tho. I'm just not ready to go mask less yet. Maybe in another month or two, we'll will see. Link to comment
Recommended Posts