The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

[JJ Husker]

18 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

You guys do know there's a long history of pandemics caused by viruses jumping species. It's kinda been the pandemic MO for the last several years, if not most of the Life on Earth era. 

 

So why would it be weird to believe this time? 

 

I was against the idea it was from a lab when there was no clear evidence of any kind, the President was calling it The China Virus, and people were beating up Japanese Americans for looking Chinese. 

 

At the same time, is China capable of running a flawed and dangerous virology lab? Or conducting viral warfare against the West? Sure. Why not?  But pretending the evidence is conclusive is also a bit weird, as is rooting for the latter scenario as if it's preferable. 

 

 

There’s a lot to unpack here. First let me start with Trump calling it the China virus. Immature, irresponsible and needlessly inflammatory for sure…but not entirely wrong, except for who it was and the way he went about it. The hatred it spawned against Asian people was/is horrible and was not acceptable (like most everything Trump).

 

Personally I’m not rooting or hoping one way or the other and I don’t think anything about it has been conclusive.  In fact I would be relieved to find out for sure it was the result of some naturally occurring species jump. I just think given the location and the Chinese government’s attempts to cover up and not cooperate are pretty damning. People that don’t have something to hide generally don’t go out of their way to hide things. Occam’s Razor and all that…

[teachercd]

15 minutes ago, JJ Husker said:

There’s a lot to unpack here. First let me start with Trump calling it the China virus. Immature, irresponsible and needlessly inflammatory for sure…but not entirely wrong, except for who it was and the way he went about it. The hatred it spawned against Asian people was/is horrible and was not acceptable (like most everything Trump).

 

Personally I’m not rooting or hoping one way or the other and I don’t think anything about it has been conclusive.  In fact I would be relieved to find out for sure it was the result of some naturally occurring species jump. I just think given the location and the Chinese government’s attempts to cover up and not cooperate are pretty damning. People that don’t have something to hide generally don’t go out of their way to hide things. Occam’s Razor and all that…

Had it been from Russia and it was the 80's we totally could have called it the Commie Flu!

 

Man, we hated those commies!  

[Guy Chamberlin]

28 minutes ago, JJ Husker said:

There’s a lot to unpack here. First let me start with Trump calling it the China virus. Immature, irresponsible and needlessly inflammatory for sure…but not entirely wrong, except for who it was and the way he went about it. The hatred it spawned against Asian people was/is horrible and was not acceptable (like most everything Trump).

 

Personally I’m not rooting or hoping one way or the other and I don’t think anything about it has been conclusive.  In fact I would be relieved to find out for sure it was the result of some naturally occurring species jump. I just think given the location and the Chinese government’s attempts to cover up and not cooperate are pretty damning. People that don’t have something to hide generally don’t go out of their way to hide things. Occam’s Razor and all that…

 

So we're pretty much in agreement. 

 

I'd just add that China would be obfuscating and covering up if a global pandemic had emerged from its wet markets, too. China preferring to control everything and avoid cooperating works for pretty much every scenario. 

[ZRod]

1 hour ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

You guys do know there's a long history of pandemics caused by viruses jumping species. It's kinda been the pandemic MO for the last several years, if not most of the Life on Earth era. 

 

So why would it be weird to believe this time? 

 

I was against the idea it was from a lab when there was no clear evidence of any kind, the President was calling it The China Virus, and people were beating up Japanese Americans for looking Chinese. 

 

At the same time, is China capable of running a flawed and dangerous virology lab? Or conducting viral warfare against the West? Sure. Why not?  But pretending the evidence is conclusive is also a bit weird, as is rooting for the latter scenario as if it's preferable. 

 

 

Lab leaks are not uncommon so it's pretty plausible, but I don't think they've ever led to a pandemic, and total known infection from patient zero don't tend to be very high if there are any at all. So that's something to think about as well.

[Guy Chamberlin]

26 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Had it been from Russia and it was the 80's we totally could have called it the Commie Flu!

 

Man, we hated those commies!  

 

The 1918 global influenza pandemic -- killed 50 million back when that meant something -- somehow got pinned on the Italians, using their word for "flu."

 

Later epidemiology specialists traced the most likely origin point of the world's deadliest pandemic to the railroad canteen and troop transfer stopover at Ft. Riley, Kansas. 

 

While Kansas today is recognized as a wretched hive of human misery, it might have landed poorly back then to call it The Kansas Flu. 

 

 

 

 

[teachercd]

7 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

The 1918 global influenza pandemic -- killed 50 million back when that meant something -- somehow got pinned on the Italians, using their word for "flu."

 

Later epidemiology specialists traced the most likely origin point of the world's deadliest pandemic to the railroad canteen and troop transfer stopover at Ft. Riley, Kansas. 

 

While Kansas today is recognized as a wretched hive of human misery, it might have landed poorly back then to call it The Kansas Flu. 

 

 

 

 

If I remember correctly it was called both Flughetti and The Pizza Flu

[Scarlet]

1 hour ago, JJ Husker said:

There’s a lot to unpack here. First let me start with Trump calling it the China virus. Immature, irresponsible and needlessly inflammatory for sure…but not entirely wrong, except for who it was and the way he went about it. The hatred it spawned against Asian people was/is horrible and was not acceptable (like most everything Trump).

 

Personally I’m not rooting or hoping one way or the other and I don’t think anything about it has been conclusive.  In fact I would be relieved to find out for sure it was the result of some naturally occurring species jump. I just think given the location and the Chinese government’s attempts to cover up and not cooperate are pretty damning. People that don’t have something to hide generally don’t go out of their way to hide things. Occam’s Razor and all that…

I don't know this is Occam's Razor to me.  That's over 10 miles from the lab.

[Archy1221]

29 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Later epidemiology specialists traced the most likely origin point of the world's deadliest pandemic to the railroad canteen and troop transfer stopover at Ft. Riley, Kansas

Actually originating in Haskell County, KS and mass spreading from Ft. Riley. 

[Archy1221]

2 hours ago, Scarlet said:

 

He then infected the animals with a coronavirus which incidently have  jumped from animals to humans a number of times recently for example with the common cold, MERS and SARS.   In doing so he was the unwitting source of the global pandemic.  Turns out he is the one that lead to the epicenter of cases being the wet market.  He didn't infect anyone at the lab, his home, the pub down the street, or the market near his work.  Who knew racoon dog was so delish that it's worth battling Wuhan traffic on 100cc motorscooter? 

In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. "No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases," they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. "That's a big number, 13, with no link," says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.
 

https://www.science.org/content/article/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally

[Scarlet]

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. "No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases," they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. "That's a big number, 13, with no link," says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.
 

https://www.science.org/content/article/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally

The article you linked is from January 26, 2020. What I posted above is the concentration of cases directly and not direct linked to the Huanan market.  This dispersion pattern indicates community transmission started near or at the market.  Now that we know asymptomatic transmission is not uncommon with Covid, the lack of a direct epidemiological link isn't all that surprising.  But did this individual fall within the concentration of cases around the market?  If he was from outside the area surrounding the market we'd expect another concentration of early cases from there.  I haven't seen that.

 

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

9 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

This ladies and gentlemen is a great example of the Art of Projection.  It’s very well done.   A tweet about DOE report was shared without comment by me.   Though I do agree with the person who made the tweet in saying this discussion had been suppressed and tried to be shut down by “the experts”.   Same thing is still happening on here as shown above.   Poster tries to ridicule, use hyperbolic language, and “rage farm” about latching on to a study that shares my point of view on the subject all the while trying to claim I’m anti-science. 
 

Unlike you, I’m open to being wrong, when evidence is presented to confirm natural origin. Like finding the species in the wild that has Covid-19.   I’m hoping you are aware how small the odds that a coronavirus mutated into Covid -19 virus inside the body of an animal while an animal was sitting in a cage in Wuhan that against almost all odds was able to jump to humans in a capacity to latch and create spread on its first jump attempt.  
 

We do know however, that it is much easier for human to animal transmission.  Why didn’t the paper from 2022 look into the possibility that humans infected those caged animals that they claim were responsible for a zoonotic jump?  The likely hood of that is much greater occurring to the CDC. 

This is all pretty funny, but the majority of scientists still think COVID19 is animal in origin.

 

https://www.science.org/content/article/evidence-suggests-pandemic-came-nature-not-lab-panel-says

 

I'm not rage farming or being hyperbolic at all. I'm simply pointing out - accurately - that you reject overwhelming scientific evidence that runs counter to modern conservatism (and thus your identity as a Conservative person) when it comes to issues like climate change, among others, but you simultaneously immediately accept the DOE report on COVID19 while still ignoring the MAJORITY scientific opinion that the report is likely incorrect. This is the modern duality of Conservatism in a nutshell. A Choose-Your-Adventure of beliefs - often contrary to each other - to make the conservative worldview make sense.

 

It's possible that the DOE opinion is correct, but unlike you I let expertise and science guide my beliefs all of the time. I don't pick and choose based on my political beliefs. If and when the majority of scientists believe COVID came from a lab, then I will too. 

[teachercd]

12 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

This is all pretty funny, but the majority of scientists still think COVID19 is animal in origin.

 

https://www.science.org/content/article/evidence-suggests-pandemic-came-nature-not-lab-panel-says

 

I'm not rage farming or being hyperbolic at all. I'm simply pointing out - accurately - that you reject overwhelming scientific evidence that runs counter to modern conservatism (and thus your identity as a Conservative person) when it comes to issues like climate change, among others, but you simultaneously immediately accept the DOE report on COVID19 while still ignoring the MAJORITY scientific opinion that the report is likely incorrect. This is the modern duality of Conservatism in a nutshell. A Choose-Your-Adventure of beliefs - often contrary to each other - to make the conservative worldview make sense.

 

It's possible that the DOE opinion is correct, but unlike you I let expertise and science guide my beliefs all of the time. I don't pick and choose based on my political beliefs. If and when the majority of scientists believe COVID came from a lab, then I will too. 

No you don't, you are a Husker fan.  We let hopes and dreams and memories guide our beliefs. 

[BigRedBuster]

 

[Archy1221]

18 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

This is an interestingly worded article apart from the actual interview.   A few thoughts (paragraphs copied from the article fyi)….

 

The low confidence is correct but she didn’t add the “highly likely” to the DOE report or include the confidence level of the zoonotic origin studies.  
 

Author also tries to imply the DOE conclusion is from “Intelligence Community” and NOT scientifically based when in actuality the DOE has some of the best scientists/labs in the world at their disposal.  

 

The Department of Energy says COVID-19 was caused by a lab leak. But that doesn’t mean COVID-19 was definitely caused by a lab leak. In fact, the agency’s report, which made headlines last week, states it has “low confidence” in its own conclusion. Scientific evidence, on the other hand, has overwhelmingly pointed toward a natural spillover from animals to humans — the same origin of nearly every other outbreakin history and a growing threat. 
 

With congressional hearings, a federal advisory board and government reports pitting the conclusions of the U.S. intelligence community against the conclusions of scientists,

 

It doesn’t have to be an either/or reason for finding out the origin.   It’s actually a case for both.  The more we all know about the origin (whatever it may be) the better. 
 

 Clearly, a sizable portion of the American political system is engaged with the idea that proving COVID-19 began with a lab leak matters. But whydoes it matter? Is it motivated by the political goal of assigning blame or the public health goal of planning for the future? 

[BigRedBuster]

5 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

This is an interestingly worded article apart from the actual interview.   A few thoughts (paragraphs copied from the article fyi)….

 

The low confidence is correct but she didn’t add the “highly likely” to the DOE report or include the confidence level of the zoonotic origin studies.  
 

Author also tries to imply the DOE conclusion is from “Intelligence Community” and NOT scientifically based when in actuality the DOE has some of the best scientists/labs in the world at their disposal.  

 

The Department of Energy says COVID-19 was caused by a lab leak. But that doesn’t mean COVID-19 was definitely caused by a lab leak. In fact, the agency’s report, which made headlines last week, states it has “low confidence” in its own conclusion. Scientific evidence, on the other hand, has overwhelmingly pointed toward a natural spillover from animals to humans — the same origin of nearly every other outbreakin history and a growing threat. 
 

With congressional hearings, a federal advisory board and government reports pitting the conclusions of the U.S. intelligence community against the conclusions of scientists,

 

It doesn’t have to be an either/or reason for finding out the origin.   It’s actually a case for both.  The more we all know about the origin (whatever it may be) the better. 
 

 Clearly, a sizable portion of the American political system is engaged with the idea that proving COVID-19 began with a lab leak matters. But whydoes it matter? Is it motivated by the political goal of assigning blame or the public health goal of planning for the future? 

The reason I posted the article is because it hits on something that I've been thinking for quite some time. I'm all for studying what the origin is.  We need that to help prevent it from happening again, or improve on how to handle it if it happens again.

 

My fear though is that the political crap around it is going to drown out the practical science side of it all.  Political people are going to scream and holler and over react to the findings.  That part is touched on in the article and I agree with it.  If it's found to come from the labs, there is going to be a huge push to close the labs.  I don't agree with that approach.  We need the research. We also need it to be done in the safest way possible.