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The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

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12 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Number of covid-19 deaths yesterday was 362, down from 525 the day before. Hopefully it's a sign that the measures taken a couple weeks ago are working.

Yeah, I was thinking that as well.

 

I wonder if "we" have found ways to slow it down a bit, which is really the first step.  Buying time.  

 

 

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2 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

You might be right. It's only one data point. But since the time between exposure and death is roughly 2 weeks and a lot of the US implemented social distancing and other measures about 2 weeks ago, this is when we'd expect to start seeing the death rate be affected.

I thought it was closer to 3 weeks from infection to death. ~18 days on average. New infections leveled off after 15 days in Italy. Deaths took a few more days. But the problem is, many places such as Florida can't really start that 15 day clock even yet. I saw live stream of crowded church service in Florida yesterday. 

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3 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

You might be right. It's only one data point. But since the time between exposure and death is roughly 2 weeks and a lot of the US implemented social distancing and other measures about 2 weeks ago, this is when we'd expect to start seeing the death rate be affected.

 

Well here's something to look at.  Look at the percentage of people tested who are infected and you'll see what I'm saying instead of the deaths:

 

16.7% of all tested are infected 29 Mar 2020 Sun
16.1% of all tested are infected 28 Mar 2020 Sat
15.8% of all tested are infected 27 Mar 2020 Fri
15.5% of all tested are infected 26 Mar 2020 Thur
15.1% of all tested are infected 25 Mar 2020 Wed

 

They're testing 100k more people each day and the above is happening.  421,532 on Wednesday.  831,351 on Sunday.

 

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1 minute ago, BlitzFirst said:

 

Well here's something to look at.  Look at the percentage of people tested who are infected and you'll see what I'm saying instead of the deaths:

 

16.7% of all tested are infected 29 Mar 2020 Sun
16.1% of all tested are infected 28 Mar 2020 Sat
15.8% of all tested are infected 27 Mar 2020 Fri
15.5% of all tested are infected 26 Mar 2020 Thur
15.1% of all tested are infected 25 Mar 2020 Wed

 

They're testing 100k more people each day and the above is happening.  421,532 on Wednesday.  831,351 on Sunday.

 

I don't know if they are posting all of the correct numbers but from the data I have access to Mississippi has had above a 75% positive rate the last 2 days

 

Our restrictions are pretty lax and I know of restaurants that are ignoring the no dine in order. Many people aren't listening still

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1 minute ago, BlitzFirst said:

 

Here's what MS has posted publicly.  https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html

 

I see no testing data, but 32% hospitalization rate isn't good. I'm tracking testing on this site https://covidtracking.com/data/#MS. 2 days ago 110 tests 84 positive, yesterday 107 new tests with 95 positive. They may not be posting all of the tests but those numbers are concerning 

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5 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

I see no testing data, but 32% hospitalization rate isn't good. I'm tracking testing on this site https://covidtracking.com/data/#MS. 2 days ago 110 tests 84 positive, yesterday 107 new tests with 95 positive. They may not be posting all of the tests but those numbers are concerning 

 

Look at Michigan:

 

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/michigan/#history

 

The numbers are not kind...and Trump is messing around with politics holding back stuff from them because they don't assuage his ego.  I hope he gets to experience Covid19 so he has some perspective.

 

Infection rate in Michigan:  31.6% of all tested.

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20 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Yeah, I was thinking that as well.

 

I wonder if "we" have found ways to slow it down a bit, which is really the first step.  Buying time.  

I mean, we already have ways to slow down the spread and buy time. Test/trace/quarantine, hygiene/washing hands, restricted travel, no large crowds/events, social distancing, etc.

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10 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

I mean, we already have ways to slow down the spread and buy time. Test/trace/quarantine, hygiene/washing hands, restricted travel, no large crowds/events, social distancing, etc.

The problem for us is we aren't doing terribly well on the first portion. I have heard multiple stories of infected individuals being told not to tell anyone. It seems our tracing system isn't very strong at least in some places. That's the problem across the board, all of our measures have been piecemeal 

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Since there's been some posts about testing numbers, so I thought I'd share updates for Colorado:

Quote

 

Colorado Case Summary (Updated 3/29/20 at 4:00 p.m.)
Note: This summary only includes data through 3/28 and does not reflect cases since then.  

2,307 cases*
326 hospitalized
46 counties
14,470 people tested
47 deaths 
10 outbreaks at residential and non-hospital health care facilities

*The number of cases includes people who have had a test that indicated they were positive for COVID-19. The number of cases also includes epidemiologically-linked cases -- or cases where public health epidemiologists have determined that infection is highly likely because a person exhibited symptoms and had close contact with someone who tested positive. The number of epidemiologically-linked cases represents a very small portion of the reported cases.

 

 

Given those numbers: About 16% (see note) have tested positive out of those tested and a case fatality rate of 2.0%.

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