The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

[Undone]

Just now, Nebfanatic said:

yes I just think its a bad point. We can see the data in real time and determine that they are doing worse than their Nordic counterparts. Its not rocket science and while we will have more information as time passes realistically the chances that trend changes is slim. 

 

Totally fair there to say you think the chances of the trend changing are slim. I just wanted to make sure you understood the underlying point I was trying to make.

 

Part of it depends on the degree of success of the vaccine.

 

Different train of thought: For those of us that prioritize scientific integrity and holding companies to the highest degree of accountability, we should start talking about having an incredibly high standard of double-blind testing that gets published when the human trials start. We should have publicly available access to side effects and the full reports of the testing that is done.

 

A self-signed study is not going to cut it here - this is a global pandemic.

 

 

[Nebfanatic]

25 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

Totally fair there to say you think the chances of the trend changing are slim. I just wanted to make sure you understood the underlying point I was trying to make.

 

Part of it depends on the degree of success of the vaccine.

 

Different train of thought: For those of us that prioritize scientific integrity and holding companies to the highest degree of accountability, we should start talking about having an incredibly high standard of double-blind testing that gets published when the human trials start. We should have publicly available access to side effects and the full reports of the testing that is done.

 

A self-signed study is not going to cut it here - this is a global pandemic.

 

 

I don't disagree that the data is incomplete and making assumptions based off current data could lead to being completely wrong but I just think its hard to say we can't determine which strategy is best there. To a degree its common sense, the longer you can drag it out the less pressure you put on hospitals, greater chance for vaccine, and more knowledge about treating people and what works. I do agree with pretty much everything else you have said here though. Outcomes will change depending on if and when the vaccine is available. Definitely need as much transparency as possible there 

[Enhance]

1 hour ago, Undone said:

My big point there is that you can't take per capita COVID deaths right now and make definitive claims about a country's strategy - You only see whether the strategy was good/bad in hindsight. And that hindsight may actually take somewhere between 1-3 years.

We just don't know, because that's the nature of a novel pathogen.

I agree about not making "definitive" claims. We will need the benefit of hindsight, probably years down the road, to say anything definitively.

 

But, there are only so many ways we can effectively evaluate and make decisions based off of available data. At the moment, I think per capita death rates lean more germane than immaterial. Maybe 10 years from now we'll have a different opinion on that but right now I think it has to be part of the conversation and evaluation process. We just have to be careful about making sweeping generalizations with said data.

[Jason Sitoke]

Like the discussion here. Good points all around. 
 

Unfortunately the only definitive thing I’ve learned is that a number of people and entities have demonstrated a disturbing eagerness to augment incomplete data with self serving narrative. 
 

Amazing how many amateur statisticians have arisen out of this mess. 

[Undone]

1 hour ago, Enhance said:

At the moment, I think per capita death rates lean more germane than immaterial.

 

Correct.

But it's also quite basic that unless herd immunity is achieved, reinfection occurs with something this contagious. So you're potentially battling it for years unless you have a vaccine that really works effectively. The flu vaccine has a roughly 50% efficacy rate in the U.S.

 

To go back to Sweden: I saw a lot of people back in April that were acting like Sweden had consulted a "nobody" on virology/epidemiology (like Donald Trump   ). That's not the case - their officials were actually attempting to follow traditional epidemiological practice and attempt to achieve herd immunity as quickly as possible.

That plan very well might wind up being absolute disaster - but my point is that we truly don't know right now.

[commando]

this might convince some people to wear a mask

 

 

[Undone]

4 minutes ago, commando said:

this might convince some people to wear a mask

 

 

 

I'm gonna have to watch it a couple more times for science.

[Nebfanatic]

@Ulty didn't think this was best for the 2020 football thread but the absolute best article I have read regarding possible lab escape of COVID 19. Highly recommended reading 

 

https://www.independentsciencenews.org/health/the-case-is-building-that-covid-19-had-a-lab-origin/

[commando]

1 hour ago, Nebfanatic said:

@Ulty didn't think this was best for the 2020 football thread but the absolute best article I have read regarding possible lab escape of COVID 19. Highly recommended reading 

 

https://www.independentsciencenews.org/health/the-case-is-building-that-covid-19-had-a-lab-origin/

i wouldn't put a lot of trust on something from that sight.  is anyone else reporting this?  

[Nebfanatic]

25 minutes ago, commando said:

i wouldn't put a lot of trust on something from that sight.  is anyone else reporting this?  

Why? Checking into the site they are rated fairly well and while they occasionally post misleading science they are typically known for quality material. Take each article on a case by case basis. I like this article because it goes in depth about why this could be a real possibility. Other articles have focused on is this deliberate or is this bioterrorism, this article stays above that fray. It mainly explores the idea that the pathogen could have escaped, something that is more common than we are aware of as this article highlights. Its well sourced and I would recommend reading it. I would do my due diligence(check the sources they site), but it is a very intriguing read. 

 

Also, this article does not claim that this is definitely the source of COVID, just that more investigation is warranted given the questions raised by this disease and its origins 

 

 

Edit: https://www.google.com/amp/s/mediabiasfactcheck.com/independent-science-news/%3famp fact check on the site in question

[JJ Husker]

Why is it that big burly redneck types are the biggest p#ssies when it comes to wearing masks?  Today was the first day of statewide mandatory masks in Colorado. I had to make a quick trip to Sam’s. As I was walking out this rather large knuckle dragging mouth breather in front of me just couldn’t handle keeping his mask on for another 20 seconds to get out the door. He rips it off, practically in tears and has his daughter feel his face (it must’ve been sweating a bit), then he barks at his wife to take hers off. They only had to do the receipt check at the door thing left but mr. tough guy just couldn’t take it anymore. Talk about snowflakes.

 

And actually my question was rhetorical. I know why knuckle dragging mouth breathing Trump supporters are the ones that can’t handle social responsibility.

[JJ Husker]

2 hours ago, Undone said:

 

Correct.

But it's also quite basic that unless herd immunity is achieved, reinfection occurs with something this contagious. So you're potentially battling it for years unless you have a vaccine that really works effectively. The flu vaccine has a roughly 50% efficacy rate in the U.S.

 

To go back to Sweden: I saw a lot of people back in April that were acting like Sweden had consulted a "nobody" on virology/epidemiology (like Donald Trump   ). That's not the case - their officials were actually attempting to follow traditional epidemiological practice and attempt to achieve herd immunity as quickly as possible.

That plan very well might wind up being absolute disaster - but my point is that we truly don't know right now.

Correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t somebody (The Netherlands I think) attempt the herd immunity approach and it backfired horribly (aka absolute disaster)?

[commando]

38 minutes ago, JJ Husker said:

Why is it that big burly redneck types are the biggest p#ssies when it comes to wearing masks?  Today was the first day of statewide mandatory masks in Colorado. I had to make a quick trip to Sam’s. As I was walking out this rather large knuckle dragging mouth breather in front of me just couldn’t handle keeping his mask on for another 20 seconds to get out the door. He rips it off, practically in tears and has his daughter feel his face (it must’ve been sweating a bit), then he barks at his wife to take hers off. They only had to do the receipt check at the door thing left but mr. tough guy just couldn’t take it anymore. Talk about snowflakes.

 

And actually my question was rhetorical. I know why knuckle dragging mouth breathing Trump supporters are the ones that can’t handle social responsibility.

when the patriotic call to wear a mask to help your fellow americans went out....a lot of people said eff that.   

[RedDenver]

22 hours ago, Jason Sitoke said:

Coronavirus is at least an order of magnitude more deadly than H1N1. That being said, you’re basing hospitalization rate off of confirmed cases. Pretty well established that far more people have been infected with this virus than those testing positive. 

My post clearly said I was referencing case data and had a link to the source. But the comparison I made was hospitalization rate of cases of covid vs cases of flu, both of which are based on positive testing, so it's a reasonable comparison especially as an argument against the assertion that covid is similar to the flu. Covid has much higher hospitalization rates among people who have tested positive for covid than flu does for people that have tested positive for the flu.

[Jason Sitoke]

1 hour ago, RedDenver said:

My post clearly said I was referencing case data and had a link to the source. But the comparison I made was hospitalization rate of cases of covid vs cases of flu, both of which are based on positive testing, so it's a reasonable comparison especially as an argument against the assertion that covid is similar to the flu. Covid has much higher hospitalization rates among people who have tested positive for covid than flu does for people that have tested positive for the flu.

You might want to consider the circumstances under which a case of influenza is confirmed vs covid.  There might be some underlying factors that affect the comparison.