The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

[Jason Sitoke]

1 hour ago, Scarlet said:

"The data on mask mandates actually shows an INCREASED rate of COVID cases after the mandates."

 

That's what he said.  Are you going to continue to call me a liar now?  Or are you going to parse down the meaning of his statement to mean he didn't really mean what he really meant.  Clearly he's stating the data shows that mask mandates cause, create, show a rise, show an increased rate (all the same meaning) in Covid cases.

 

Like I said you're in way in over your head and you're just throwing s#!t on the wall to see what will stick.  Repeat it enough so it is taken as fact by somebody, anybody right?

 

I'm over debating this with you. I'm not getting paid to do this.  I work, have a life.  Maybe you should check it out.  

Actually, I don’t think he said it ‘caused’ cases to go up. I believe his point is that it didn’t seem to make any difference.  I don’t necessarily agree with him, but there is some data that lends some credence to his point. I took a look at 3 states, California, Louisiana, and Florida. California issued a mask mandate on June 18th, Louisiana on July 11th, and as we all know..Florida has never had a statewide mandate.  Consequently, all 3 states experienced a summer surge in cases, from around mid June well into August.  Now I’m not sure what we would expect to see here, but I would have expected some differences in the numbers. To be clear...masks have been proven to be a good preventative measure...not really up for debate. However questioning the mandates themselves is more of a question of effective governance. Was it too lenient?  Was it not enforced correctly?  Is it unenforceable?  These are valid questions. 
 

All of this to say that looking for a single causative factor is really a flaw in logic to begin with. The data is imperfect...riddled with holes (another issue entirely), but we should be decomposing it and trying to understand it so we can make a better plan next time. 

[Scarlet]

7 minutes ago, Jason Sitoke said:

Actually, I don’t think he said it ‘caused’ cases to go up. I believe his point is that it didn’t seem to make any difference.  I don’t necessarily agree with him, but there is some data that lends some credence to his point. I took a look at 3 states, California, Louisiana, and Florida. California issued a mask mandate on June 18th, Louisiana on July 11th, and as we all know..Florida has never had a statewide mandate.  Consequently, all 3 states experienced a summer surge in cases, from around mid June well into August.  Now I’m not sure what we would expect to see here, but I would have expected some differences in the numbers. To be clear...masks have been proven to be a good preventative measure...not really up for debate. However questioning the mandates themselves is more of a question of effective governance. Was it too lenient?  Was it not enforced correctly?  Is it unenforceable?  These are valid questions. 
 

All of this to say that looking for a single causative factor is really a flaw in logic to begin with. The data is imperfect...riddled with holes (another issue entirely), but we should be decomposing it and trying to understand it so we can make a better plan next time. 

He flat out said the data shows increased cases after the mandate.  Don't be naive. You know what he meant.  If he meant to question the data he sure worded his tweet poorly.  He was trying to sow doubt in the effectiveness of mask mandates.  This from a genius who has no experience in virology yet seems to think he knows how to handle an epidemic better than the experts.

[knapplc]

46 minutes ago, Jason Sitoke said:

Actually, I don’t think he said it ‘caused’ cases to go up. I believe his point is that it didn’t seem to make any difference.  I don’t necessarily agree with him, but there is some data that lends some credence to his point. I took a look at 3 states, California, Louisiana, and Florida. California issued a mask mandate on June 18th, Louisiana on July 11th, and as we all know..Florida has never had a statewide mandate.  Consequently, all 3 states experienced a summer surge in cases, from around mid June well into August.  Now I’m not sure what we would expect to see here, but I would have expected some differences in the numbers. To be clear...masks have been proven to be a good preventative measure...not really up for debate. However questioning the mandates themselves is more of a question of effective governance. Was it too lenient?  Was it not enforced correctly?  Is it unenforceable?  These are valid questions. 
 

All of this to say that looking for a single causative factor is really a flaw in logic to begin with. The data is imperfect...riddled with holes (another issue entirely), but we should be decomposing it and trying to understand it so we can make a better plan next time. 

 

"Mask mandates" don't mean everyone wore a mask, nor does it mean that any of those mandates were enforced.

 

Mandates were a strong suggestion to people to mask up. Anti-maskers quickly realized these had no teeth.

[Archy1221]

2 hours ago, Scarlet said:

"The data on mask mandates actually shows an INCREASED rate of COVID cases after the mandates."

 

That's what he said.  Are you going to continue to call me a liar now?  Or are you going to parse down the meaning of his statement to mean he didn't really mean what he really meant.  Clearly he's stating the data shows that mask mandates cause, create, show a rise, show an increased rate (all the same meaning) in Covid cases.

 

Like I said you're in way over your head and you're just throwing s#!t at the wall to see what will stick.  Repeat it enough so it is taken as fact by somebody, anybody right?

 

I'm over debating this with you. I'm not getting paid to do this.  I work, have a life.  Maybe you should check it out.  

You are surely misrepresenting what he is saying.  I think it’s pretty clear to most, that Rand is of the opinion that mask mandates don’t work or he is clearly questioning if they work.  I still don’t see anywhere that he made the case that mask mandates caused the increase in infections. 
 

Call me whatever you want, keep saying I’m in over my head, be snide, or rude.  It doesn’t change the facts of the discussion or turn them around to what you wanted it to be.  
 

Enjoy your work and enjoy your life.  Maybe I will get the chance to check it out.  
 

[Jason Sitoke]

6 hours ago, Scarlet said:

He flat out said the data shows increased cases after the mandate.  Don't be naive. You know what he meant.  If he meant to question the data he sure worded his tweet poorly.  He was trying to sow doubt in the effectiveness of mask mandates.  This from a genius who has no experience in virology yet seems to think he knows how to handle an epidemic better than the experts.

I’m looking at the words he said. If it feels better to create a straw man and argue against it, that’s fine. I don’t like Rand Paul, but I’m willing to take a hard look at the argument he’s making. It’s lazy to dismiss it because ‘it’s Rand Paul’, which is on you. 

[Jason Sitoke]

5 hours ago, knapplc said:

 

"Mask mandates" don't mean everyone wore a mask, nor does it mean that any of those mandates were enforced.

 

Mandates were a strong suggestion to people to mask up. Anti-maskers quickly realized these had no teeth.

Sure. But isn’t it confirmation bias to assume cases went down because ‘people complied with the mandate’, and cases went up because ‘people stopped following the mandate’?

 

Could there be other factors?

[knapplc]

5 minutes ago, Jason Sitoke said:

Sure. But isn’t it confirmation bias to assume cases went down because ‘people complied with the mandate’, and cases went up because ‘people stopped following the mandate’?

 

Could there be other factors?

 

Of course there could be other factors. What do you think those are?

[Scarlet]

21 minutes ago, Jason Sitoke said:

I’m looking at the words he said. If it feels better to create a straw man and argue against it, that’s fine. I don’t like Rand Paul, but I’m willing to take a hard look at the argument he’s making. It’s lazy to dismiss it because ‘it’s Rand Paul’, which is on you. 

"Doesn’t anyone care to know if mask mandates help? The data on mask mandates actually shows an INCREASED rate of COVID cases after the mandates."

 

No, it's on you to take this quote as anything but gaslighting the public on the benefits of masks and mask mandates.  Like I said, if he meant otherwise, he chose his words poorly...and dangerously.  

[Jason Sitoke]

2 minutes ago, Scarlet said:

"Doesn’t anyone care to know if mask mandates help? The data on mask mandates actually shows an INCREASED rate of COVID cases after the mandates."

 

No, it's on you to take this quote as anything but gaslighting the public on the benefits of masks and mask mandates.  Like I said, if he meant otherwise, he chose his words poorly...and dangerously.  

Agree to disagree. 

[Jason Sitoke]

31 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Of course there could be other factors. What do you think those are?

I think a lot of what drove the surge in the summer and winter were the gatherings. I believe that a lot of people were responsible and wore their masks when going to the grocery store, traveling on an airplane, working in an office, etc. And during holidays (4th of July, Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas)...friends and family got together...everyone bending the rules in their own way, and the risk stacked up and resulted in some pretty severe outbreaks. Combine that with the fact that most people retreated indoors when it got cold.  Masks or no masks, when people are inside an office building or stuck on an airplane for 4 hours with limited ventilation, you are likely inhaling what others are exhaling at some point. 
 

That’s not an argument to abandon the mask mandates, but rather maybe that masks were too heavily relied on to prevent community spread. 

[Moiraine]

17 hours ago, Jason Sitoke said:

Agree with the basic premise. Fauci has for the most part tried to be up front and advise as best he could.  He made some assertions early on that were hit and miss, but they were done in good faith. My issue with Fauci isn’t that he advised against masks early in the pandemic:  “"Right now, in the United States, people should not be walking around with masks," Fauci said during the interview. "There's no reason to be walking around with a mask."

My issue is with what he offered when he got his chance at a mea culpa:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/fauci-doesnt-regret-advising-against-masks-early-in-pandemic-2020-7%3famp

 

He could have said ‘things evolved quickly and we offered advice based on what we knew’. Instead he basicallly admits that he wasn’t informing, but rather trying to evoke a targeted response from the public. When you say there’s ‘no reason for Americans to be wearing masks’, that is more than just incorrect. It’s disingenuous. His job was/is to inform, and he failed in that instance. 

Overall, I empathize with Fauci. I believe he’s done his best. Tried to inform. Trump basically sold him out and hung him out to dry. IMO he’s become so guarded in everything he says because of this, that it’s hard to glean anything useful from his words. 
 

For instance, he and his wife are fully vaccinated. When asked if he felt comfortable traveling, he said ‘no’. There are several reasons why he might say this...such as ‘I don’t want to travel until we ALL can travel’, etc. Instead, he says he won’t travel because he’s in a ‘high risk age group’.  What?  You’re vaccinated, which means your chances for experiencing severe illness are negligible, statistically. Consequently,  it doesn’t seem to offer much motivation for the general public to receive a vaccine.  This is not useful guidance and does brink on unnecessary alarmism in my opinion. 

 

 

 

Fauci made a mistake on masks and instead of doubling down he reversed course when he had new information, which is what someone in his position should do. You don’t like how he answered the question on it which is fair. But then what’s the right way for the White House or the public to react? I assume you don’t think we should ignore Fauci and listen to someone like Rand Paul. And sorry but it is appropriate to ignore Paul based on the plethora of ridiculously stupid things he’s said and the fact he doesn’t have a background in the relevant fields. His opinion on it is not worthy of any attention whatsoever.

[Jason Sitoke]

38 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

Fauci made a mistake on masks and instead of doubling down he reversed course when he had new information, which is what someone in his position should do. You don’t like how he answered the question on it which is fair. But then what’s the right way for the White House or the public to react? I assume you don’t think we should ignore Fauci and listen to someone like Rand Paul. And sorry but it is appropriate to ignore Paul based on the plethora of ridiculously stupid things he’s said and the fact he doesn’t have a background in the relevant fields. His opinion on it is not worthy of any attention whatsoever.

I believe on occasion that good people are wrong, and blowhards sometimes make good points and that rejecting an argument solely based on your opinion of the person  making it is a missed opportunity. 
 

I’m also not an epidemiologist, but here we are having a discussion. 

[Moiraine]

27 minutes ago, Jason Sitoke said:

I believe on occasion that good people are wrong, and blowhards sometimes make good points and that rejecting an argument solely based on your opinion of the person  making it is a missed opportunity. 
 

I’m also not an epidemiologist, but here we are having a discussion. 

 

 

But with Paul that's not the case because I have seen some of what he's said on the matter and it's mostly been moronic. I haven't seen a good point from him yet.

[Archy1221]

15 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

But with Paul that's not the case because I have seen some of what he's said on the matter and it's mostly been moronic. I haven't seen a good point from him yet.

Would you mind sharing which points you are referring to? 

[knapplc]

3 hours ago, Jason Sitoke said:

I think a lot of what drove the surge in the summer and winter were the gatherings. I believe that a lot of people were responsible and wore their masks when going to the grocery store, traveling on an airplane, working in an office, etc. And during holidays (4th of July, Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas)...friends and family got together...everyone bending the rules in their own way, and the risk stacked up and resulted in some pretty severe outbreaks. Combine that with the fact that most people retreated indoors when it got cold.  Masks or no masks, when people are inside an office building or stuck on an airplane for 4 hours with limited ventilation, you are likely inhaling what others are exhaling at some point. 
 

That’s not an argument to abandon the mask mandates, but rather maybe that masks were too heavily relied on to prevent community spread. 

 

May I ask what studies are available to support any of this?