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Dem VP choice


VP Choice  

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22 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

In reality the VP pick won't matter at all. Voters aren't going to decide between Trump and Biden based on Harris or Pence.

 

The VP debate matters even less than a coach's pre-game comments.

 

This isn't exactly true. I can say, personally, McCain's decision to pick Palin in tandem with Obama's decision to pick Biden cemented my vote of Obama. I actually really liked McCain pre-campaign, before his handlers turned him into Bush Lite. 

 

That said, I don't know that the pick of Harris actually changes the electoral vote count, or helps win the election. She may be more effective than Tim "bump on a log" Kaine, but I don't think by much. - I suppose this pick was to shore up the African American vote, but California is already going blue. Might've been better to pick someone with strong qualifications at ties to a necessary swing state. 

 

I guess we will see. 

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7 minutes ago, Born N Bled Red said:

 

This isn't exactly true. I can say, personally, McCain's decision to pick Palin in tandem with Obama's decision to pick Biden cemented my vote of Obama. I actually really liked McCain pre-campaign, before his handlers turned him into Bush Lite. 

 

That said, I don't know that the pick of Harris actually changes the electoral vote count, or helps win the election. She may be more effective than Tim "bump on a log" Kaine, but I don't think by much. - I suppose this pick was to shore up the African American vote, but California is already going blue. Might've been better to pick someone with strong qualifications at ties to a necessary swing state. 

 

I guess we will see. 

 

FiveThirtyEight did a piece that dug into the numbers a while back and found that the bump VPs give in their home state is relatively tiny.

 

I'm guessing Joe just felt most comfortable with Harris and felt she was the safest choice that wouldn't rock the boat.

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1 minute ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

FiveThirtyEight did a piece that dug into the numbers a while back and found that the bump VPs give in their home state is relatively tiny.

 

I'm guessing Joe just felt most comfortable with Harris and felt she was the safest choice that wouldn't rock the boat.

 

Fair enough, but a tiny bump in Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, or Georgia, maybe even Texas (Beto) could have potentially decided the election. Maybe this pick will mobilize the African American vote enough to provide that tiny bump across several states. Maybe Kanye added additional pressure here. 

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18 minutes ago, Born N Bled Red said:

 

Fair enough, but a tiny bump in Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, or Georgia, maybe even Texas (Beto) could have potentially decided the election. Maybe this pick will mobilize the African American vote enough to provide that tiny bump across several states. Maybe Kanye added additional pressure here. 

Kamala Harris did MUCH worse among African American primary voters than Biden or even Bernie. She doesn't do anything for helping Biden with that demographic.

 

Like Danny Bateman said, she's just a pick that won't rock the boat.

3 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

I had a wild, ADHD induced, popcorn thought last night.    What are the chances that Trump dumps Pence for Nikki Haley to try to counteract the Harris bump given to Biden???

It'd definitely be on brand for Trump.

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15 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Kamala Harris did MUCH worse among African American primary voters than Biden or even Bernie. She doesn't do anything for helping Biden with that demographic.

 

I don't know if I'd go that far.

 

It's apples to oranges when you're picking your favorite primary candidate compared to when you're choosing Biden/Harris or Trump/Pence. I know polling has been lukewarm but I feel by the time we get to November, Harris can go a long way to activating a big mobilization of black voters, particularly black women. They're the backbone of the party and their lack of enthusiasm is a big reason Clinton lost.

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2 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

I don't know if I'd go that far.

 

It's apples to oranges when you're picking your favorite primary candidate compared to when you're choosing Biden/Harris or Trump/Pence. I know polling has been lukewarm but I feel by the time we get to November, Harris can go a long way to activating a big mobilization of black voters, particularly black women. They're the backbone of the party and their lack of enthusiasm is a big reason Clinton lost.

Biden is already crushing it with those voters, so Kamala is little to no help even if she was popular with that group.

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16 minutes ago, BlitzFirst said:

 

And some would argue that her record on policing the police flies in the face of the BLM movement that swept the nation the past 6 months...and which is going to be a major debate topic and will still be on everyone's minds in November...especially with 25 million Americans getting ready to be homeless soon (majority poor and non-white).

If one of your main issues at the poll is BLM, I have a hard time believing you are grappling with who to vote for....One ticket took the issue very seriously, and marched in the movement - the other tear gassed protestors just to take a picture with a bible.

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34 minutes ago, BlitzFirst said:

 

And some would argue that her record on policing the police flies in the face of the BLM movement that swept the nation the past 6 months...and which is going to be a major debate topic and will still be on everyone's minds in November...especially with 25 million Americans getting ready to be homeless soon (majority poor and non-white).

 

I think you're right. She'll never be popular with most of the BLM crowd, the part that will always see her as a cop.

 

So it's just a question of whether those voters will be decisive in the important states or not.

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I don't think Harris will matter much come election time. Biden will get the votes he was going to get, regardless of his choice IMO. 

 

Biden should win handily (saw Tweet earlier predicting mid 60% range), because he should get the same,  or even more popular votes than Clinton, and I think enough folks in enough swing States are completely fed up with Trump and will vote differently than in 2016.

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2 hours ago, TGHusker said:

I had a wild, ADHD induced, popcorn thought last night.    What are the chances that Trump dumps Pence for Nikki Haley to try to counteract the Harris bump given to Biden???

 

That rumor made the rounds a couple of weeks ago, I thought? 

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3 minutes ago, Cdog923 said:

 

That rumor made the rounds a couple of weeks ago, I thought? 

It may have and I had wondered out loud about it on HB  months ago and had forgotten about the possibility - until Harris was picked.  Nikki comes with a different ethnic background (different than the normal WASP background ) as well and maybe Trump might want to take advantage of that.  She has been very supportive of trump. 

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5 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

It may have and I had wondered out loud about it on HB  months ago and had forgotten about the possibility - until Harris was picked.  Nikki comes with a different ethnic background (different than the normal WASP background ) as well and maybe Trump might want to take advantage of that.  She has been very supportive of trump. 

 

I honestly don't think Haley wants a first-class ticket on the Titanic. She's got her eyes on future elections.

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55 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

I honestly don't think Haley wants a first-class ticket on the Titanic. She's got her eyes on future elections.

You are right - no one in their right mind would get on that ship.    I'm sure there are a few who'd like to jump off if they could.  I hope it ends up being the Titanic.

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