Mavric Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Moiraine said: I've been trying to think of the best way to measure this. On the one hand we have way more people than Italy. On the other we are a lot more spread out. It's gonna spread faster in our cities but should spread more slowly overall. I've been curious about that as well. I was thinking maybe comparing Italy to California would be in the ballpark. Italy has roughly 50% more population and twice the population density. But a lot of California's population is on the coast. So if you ignored the east half of California or probably two-thirds (where relatively few people live) it would probably be fairly similar. Quote Link to comment
Moiraine Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 Article in NYT about UNMC decontaminating masks: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-masks-reuse.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage Quote Link to comment
Moiraine Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 On the Plus Side, Maybe George R.R. Martin Will Finish Winds of Winter Now Quote “I am spending more time in Westeros than in the real world, writing every day,” Martin wrote on his blog. “Things are pretty grim in the Seven Kingdoms…but maybe not as grim as they may become here.” 1 Quote Link to comment
commando Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 i have a couple n-95 masks. i bought them for demo work last winter. i opened the 3 pack and used 1 mask and closed the package. i assume since the pack was opened they can't be donated? or is the shortage severe enough that unused masks from an open pack are acceptable? i know it's only 2...but i feel they are going to waste sitting in my storage at a time like this Quote Link to comment
Thurston from Pender Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 Facts, charts and stats. Don’r panic. http://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894 Quote Link to comment
Thurston from Pender Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 Only 1% of all cases will be severe. Quote The US population is 5.5X greater than Italy, 6X larger than South Korea, and 25% the size of China. Comparing the US total number of cases in absolute terms is rather silly. Rank ordering based on the total number of cases shows that the US on a per-capita basis is significantly lower than the top six nations by case volume. On a 1 million citizen per-capita basis, the US moves to above mid-pack of all countries and rising, with similar case volume as Singapore (385 cases), Cyprus (75 cases), and United Kingdom(3,983 cases). This is data as of March 20th, 2020. Quote Link to comment
funhusker Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 23 minutes ago, Thurston from Pender said: Facts, charts and stats. Don’r panic. http://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894 Who here is panicking? We are simply listening to the advice of medical professionals that are dealing with this on the front lines. 1 Quote Link to comment
lo country Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 31 minutes ago, Thurston from Pender said: Facts, charts and stats. Don’r panic. http://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894 A LONG article, but puts forth a lot of great information. Personally, I feel that we are being bombarded and getting information overload. Hard to decipher facts from intent........Once the frenzy starts, it's hard to stop it. Then you have the poltics being thrown in.........Your article does put things in a "calmer" less "panicked" perspective..... Quote Link to comment
FrantzHardySwag Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 It's gonna be ugly for a few weeks, and we're starring down the worst of it in the coming weeks. Fact is many will lose this battle, and those people are likely going to be elder with underlying conditions. The good news is science WILL beat this, just a matter of when. Already hearing some very good breakthroughs, hopefully we will have a very strong treatment plan in the coming weeks and take a chunk out of this thing. 1 Quote Link to comment
Thurston from Pender Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 I don’t think the U.S. will experience a mortality rate anywhere near as high as Italy’s, for a number of reasons including our younger population, far fewer smokers, lower population density, a better health care system and early deployment of anti-viral drugs, some of which are likely to prove helpful. But let’s assume the U.S. ultimately sees a mortality rate of 100 per million. That would be 143 times the current U.S. rate, not outside the realm of possibility. Do the math: if we have around 330 million people, and 100 die per million, that equals 33,000, which would be equivalent to the deaths from an average seasonal flu season. Maybe it’s worse than that; maybe by the time it runs its course, the death toll from COVID-19 rises to 200 per million, 286 times the current rate. That would still be less than the death toll from flu in the U.S. just two years ago. Quote Link to comment
knapplc Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 So, we had the normal flu season with the normal death rate from that flu season. And on top of that, we're going to have what amounts to another flu season with what could be on par with the deaths of that flu season. Quote Link to comment
commando Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, Thurston from Pender said: I don’t think the U.S. will experience a mortality rate anywhere near as high as Italy’s, for a number of reasons including our younger population, far fewer smokers, lower population density, a better health care system and early deployment of anti-viral drugs, some of which are likely to prove helpful. But let’s assume the U.S. ultimately sees a mortality rate of 100 per million. That would be 143 times the current U.S. rate, not outside the realm of possibility. Do the math: if we have around 330 million people, and 100 die per million, that equals 33,000, which would be equivalent to the deaths from an average seasonal flu season. Maybe it’s worse than that; maybe by the time it runs its course, the death toll from COVID-19 rises to 200 per million, 286 times the current rate. That would still be less than the death toll from flu in the U.S. just two years ago. we are trying to prevent this from hitting everyone at once and overwhelming the medical profession. italy has problems because of the overwhelming case load. doctors CAN't treat everyone at once. we are hoping to slow the spread of the disease to over a few months rather than a few weeks. hopefully when the first wave is over we have a degree of herd immunity and future waves will not hit so hard at once. edit to add.....we also have a fair percentage of the population inoculated with a vaccine against the flu.....there is nothing like that yet for this virus. 1 Quote Link to comment
NUance Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 I wonder what the death toll will be, as a percent of those who contract the virus? I read one article saying about 2.3% died out of 77,000 who were infected. Another source (LINK) says 19,774 people in the U.S. have contracted the virus, resulting in 281 deaths. This works out to be about 1.3%. I'd be willing to bet that the overall death percentage (in the U.S., anyway) is somewhat lower than either of these instances--likely something less than 1%. I'm basing this on guessing that the total number of cases reported so far includes mostly the more serious cases. I suspect a lot of people have already had the virus, or have it now, but only exhibit minor symptoms. They're the ones who won't be affected by it, but will unknowingly pass it on to many others. Some of whom will have more severe symptoms, including death in some instances. I'm just spittballing here. You know, since I'm not a medical doctor or anything. 1 Quote Link to comment
RedDenver Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Thurston from Pender said: Only 1% of all cases will be severe. You have any evidence for that claim? The WHO is reporting 14% of cases were severe (emphasis mine): Quote A majority of patients with COVID-19 are adults. Among 44 672 patients in China with confirmed infection, 2.1% were below the age of 20. The most commonly reported symptoms included fever, dry cough, and shortness of breath, and most patients (80%) experienced mild illness. Approximately 14% experienced severe disease and 5% were critically ill. Early reports suggest that illness severity is associated with age (>60 years old) and co-morbid disease. 4 minutes ago, NUance said: I wonder what the death toll will be, as a percent of those who contract the virus? I read one article saying about 2.3% died out of 77,000 who were infected. Another source (LINK) says 19,774 people in the U.S. have contracted the virus, resulting in 281 deaths. This works out to be about 1.3%. I'd be willing to bet that the overall death percentage (in the U.S., anyway) is somewhat lower than either of these instances--likely something less than 1%. I'm basing this on guessing that the total number of cases reported so far includes mostly the more serious cases. I suspect a lot of people have already had the virus, or have it now, but only exhibit minor symptoms. They're the ones who won't be affected by it, but will unknowingly pass it on to many others. Some of whom will have more severe symptoms, including death in some instances. I'm just spittballing here. You know, since I'm not a medical doctor or anything. I linked an article somewhere earlier in this thread that I can't find now, but it had an analysis of cases that showed the mortality rate was 0.5-0.9% in places where the healthcare system wasn't overwhelmed, but a mortality rate of 3-5% where the healthcare system was overwhelmed. I suspect that different parts of the US will have different mortality rates depending on a variety of factors but percentage of elderly in the population and whether the healthcare system is overwhelmed seem like the biggest predictors of high mortality rate IMO. 1 Quote Link to comment
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