Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

[DevoHusker]

 

 

[RedDenver]

4 minutes ago, DevoHusker said:

 

 

I had to look up that acronym.

[RedDenver]

 

[Moiraine]

https://www.facebook.com/NebraskaMed/videos/2799587103657377/

 

 

[B.B. Hemingway]

My sister-in-law is a nurse in SW Missouri, and she said they are sending patients in bad shape as far as Manhattan, KS now.... Probably a 6 hour drive from where she lives.

[RedDenver]

 

[Moiraine]

11 hours ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

My sister-in-law is a nurse in SW Missouri, and she said they are sending patients in bad shape as far as Manhattan, KS now.... Probably a 6 hour drive from where she lives.

 

 

This is what's more important than the percentages people throw out. The flu has 140,000-810,000 hospitalizations per year since 2010. Right now we are at peak Covid hospitalizations so far with 62,000, and there have been 525,000 total this year. That's in 8 months. If the hospitalization rate stays the same we will hit 785,000 in a 12 month period. And the hospitalization rate probably won't stay the same, it will go up. And the flu still exists.

And I'm only guessing on this one based on everything I've read since this started, but I assume Covid hospitalizations last longer.

[B.B. Hemingway]

59 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

This is what's more important than the percentages people throw out. The flu has 140,000-810,000 hospitalizations per year since 2010. Right now we are at peak Covid hospitalizations so far with 62,000, and there have been 525,000 total this year. That's in 8 months. If the hospitalization rate stays the same we will hit 785,000 in a 12 month period. And the hospitalization rate probably won't stay the same, it will go up. And the flu still exists.

And I'm only guessing on this one based on everything I've read since this started, but I assume Covid hospitalizations last longer.

 

My son has been quarantined for a little over a week now (we held out our two older girls from school too), one of his preschool teachers had it, and my wife went and got tested today, with minor symptoms (no taste, or smell). It sucks when you feel like your family has been doing what you're supposed to do, and it still gets in your house. We're lucky, though. I'm assuming all of us in the house have it, but only a couple of us have had any sort of symptoms. Not sure about the 4 month old. She doesn't say much.

 

[DevoHusker]

14 hours ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

 

My son has been quarantined for a little over a week now (we held out our two older girls from school too), one of his preschool teachers had it, and my wife went and got tested today, with minor symptoms (no taste, or smell). It sucks when you feel like your family has been doing what you're supposed to do, and it still gets in your house. We're lucky, though. I'm assuming all of us in the house have it, but only a couple of us have had any sort of symptoms. Not sure about the 4 month old. She doesn't say much.

 

 

Hope for swift recoveries and hopefully only minor inconvenience for you and yours.

 

The bolded is the sh*tty part. 

[B.B. Hemingway]

28 minutes ago, DevoHusker said:

 

Hope for swift recoveries and hopefully only minor inconvenience for you and yours.

 

The bolded is the sh*tty part. 

 

Appreciate that

[Hilltop]

At the current rate of increase, there won't be many people left after January 1st to infect in Nebraska IF the CDC is correct that only 1 in 5-10 cases gets an actual test that is recorded.  If they are correct, we should see positive case numbers dropping by mid December.  

 

Current numbers show 109,280 positive cases confirmed in Nebraska.

If x5 multiplier is correct we have had about 550k cases or about 29% of Nebraska's population.

If 10X multiplier is correct we have had 1,090,000 cases or about 57% of Nebraska population.

We are gaining 2,500 confirmed cases daily so at 5x .6% of the population is being infected daily.  At 10X, 1.3% of the population is being infected daily.

 

I'm making assumptions based on CDC information from the past few months, and from various antibody studies performed around the world.  If this is all true, our hospitals have basically zero chance to keep up meaning we will likely see another 1.5k+ deaths just here in Nebraska in the next 3-4 months.  The morbid silver lining is that we will likely be living in a post Covid world by spring.    

[RedDenver]

 

[Rochelobe]

CDC Report released today on effects of mandated mask ordinances vs non-mandated counties.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm?s_cid=mm6947e2_w

 

This data is for Kansas from the time period June 1 to August 23.  It looks at the rates of cases across counties in Kansas before/after adoption of a mask mandate (in 24 counties) vs those that did not adopt a mask mandate (81 counties).

 

Quote

As of August 11, 24 (23%) Kansas counties had a mask mandate in place, and 81 did not. Mandated counties accounted for two thirds of the Kansas population (1,960,703 persons; 67.3%)*** and were spread throughout the state, although they tended to cluster together. Six (25%) mandated and 13 (16%) nonmandated counties were metropolitan areas.^††† Thirteen (54%) mandated counties and seven (9%) nonmandated counties had implemented at least one other public health mitigation strategy not related to the use of masks (e.g., limits on size of gatherings and occupancy for restaurants). During June 1–7, 2020, the 7-day rolling average of daily COVID-19 incidence among counties that ultimately had a mask mandate was three cases per 100,000, and among counties that did not, was four per 100,000 

So, before the mask mandates were adopted (during July), the bolded text shows what the rate in the 24 counties that ultimately adopted a mask mandate in July (3 cases/100,000) vs the rate in the 81 counties that never adopted a mask mandate (4 cases/100,000).  Thus the rate was similar, despite the 24 counties having a much higher share of the population of Kansas (67.3%).

 

Then the CDC looked at the data ~1 month later, as the pandemic took off in Kansas, to when the governor stated a mask mandate:

 

Quote

By the week of the governor’s executive order requiring masks (July 3–9), COVID-19 incidence had increased 467% to 17 per 100,000 in mandated counties and 50% to six per 100,000 among nonmandated counties.

So the effects of the higher population density were much more devastating on the 24 counties that adopted a mask mandate - during the one month prior to the mandate, they went from 3 to 17 cases/100,000 (~6x increase) while the non-mandated counties increased from 4 to 6 cases/100,000 (1.5x increase).

 

On July 3, the mask mandates started in the 24 counties, while the other 81 counties continued as before:

 

Quote

By August 17–23, 2020, the 7-day rolling average COVID-19 incidence had decreased by 6% to 16 cases per 100,000 among mandated counties and increased by 100% to 12 per 100,000 among nonmandated counties.

So one month later, the mandated mask counties had started to slowly decline, while the non-mandated mask counties increased by a factor of 2x from early July.  The nonmandated counties were "catching up", as the ratio went from 17/6 = 2.83x higher in the in the 24 counties vs 81 counties on July 3 to 1.33x on Aug 23.

 

This is the reason that medical officials have said and continue to say: "WEAR A MASK".

 

Yet, all we hear from a certain population "Ain't no cloth gonna protect you none, nohow."

 

Medical professionals never promised that masks would eliminate the virus, remove all risk, etc.  The goal all along has been to slow the spread as much as possible until the vaccine became available.  It is really concerning that a segment of the population cannot see this.  It is either gross stupidity or willful disregard for others.

 

Oh, and Sweden, the darling of the anti-maskers?  Well they aren't doing so good right now.  Guess that "herd mentality" decided to run over a cliff.

 

Summary:

Cases per 100000
	6/1	7/9	8/23	Notes
24 Counties	3	17	16	Counties adopted mandate July 9
81 Counties	4	6	12	Counties never adopted

 

 

 

[knapplc]

[Archy1221]

On 11/18/2020 at 7:32 AM, B.B. Hemingway said:

My sister-in-law is a nurse in SW Missouri, and she said they are sending patients in bad shape as far as Manhattan, KS now.... Probably a 6 hour drive from where she lives.

How come they are not sending them to KC Tulsa or OKC?  Would be closer and I don’t believe each area is full.