Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

[twofittyonred]

2 hours ago, Huskers93-97 said:

I don’t know where you are getting your data but here is the latest as of 1 minute ago. 1.9 million cases in US with 110,000 deaths. 5.7% with worldwide cases 6.4 million with 383,000 deaths 5.9%. Plus like most experts believe due to lack of testing and large numbers of people who get no symptoms the death rate is really closer to 1% or less. Man I see why there are paranoid folks if they believe 14% death rate 

[twofittyonred]

1 hour ago, krc1995 said:

Guy is comparing the number of deaths against the resolved cases only, not total cases. You’re both  using the same numbers. I guess you’re either recovered or dead. 

Funny how husker is stating the actual 5.9% death rate and the going rogue with but it may be 1%...  LOL 

[Cdog923]

6 hours ago, 84HuskerLaw said:

The shutdown has cost the nation trillions in just short term fed spending and state / local budgets are trillions in the red.   Trillions more in lost assets from failed businesses and losses suffered in equity markets, real and personal property etc etc.  Conservatively ten trillion and the numbers are still growing.  

Mortality rates are declining and thats just for the published / reported cases.  Govt is hiding the real infected numbers with studies suggesting 10 to 65 times the reported.  Covid caused Deaths are most likely overstated for several reasons. Actual mortality rates for very healthy 18-25 year old athletes would be almost zero. 

Most virus deaths are sickly, elderly.  

How many college athletes have been infected in sports or college activities!   Almost zero are known.  

Risk is probably higher for accidents, drug od, heart attacks, and many other things.  

 

Life must resume or the other problems will eclipse any virus issues.  

 

Imagine valuing the economy over someone's life.

 

6 hours ago, 84HuskerLaw said:

How many college athletes have been infected in sports or college activities!   Almost zero are known.  

 

Alabama has at least 5, Ole Miss has at least 2, Okie State at least 3, Arkansas State has at least 7. Those are the ones just reported today, and last I checked, 17 > 0.

[Guy Chamberlin]

3 hours ago, Huskers93-97 said:

I don’t know where you are getting your data but here is the latest as of 1 minute ago. 1.9 million cases in US with 110,000 deaths. 5.7% with worldwide cases 6.4 million with 383,000 deaths 5.9%. Plus like most experts believe due to lack of testing and large numbers of people who get no symptoms the death rate is really closer to 1% or less. Man I see why there are paranoid folks if they believe 14% death rate 

 

Please read my post again, a little slower. 

 

The only way to measure the fatality rate of COVID is from the COVID cases that have been closed, when people have either recovered or died. 

 

This is from Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#news.  It's not political. I swear. 

 

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

And the death rate just went down 1% in the last 48 hours. That's actually encouraging. 

[84HuskerLaw]

1 hour ago, Cdog923 said:

 

Imagine valuing the economy over someone's life.

 

 

Alabama has at least 5, Ole Miss has at least 2, Okie State at least 3, Arkansas State has at least 7. Those are the ones just reported today, and last I checked, 17 > 0.

these infections are not from sports participation.  Presumably from home.   Deaths?   Of course you value the economy over someone’s life.  You always value the lives of the many over the few. 

 

[84HuskerLaw]

3 hours ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

And the death rate just went down 1% in the last 48 hours. That's actually encouraging. 

3 hours ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Please read my post again, a little slower. 

 

The only way to measure the fatality rate of COVID is from the COVID cases that have been closed, when people have either recovered or died. 

 

This is from Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#news.  It's not political. I swear. 

 

 

 

The “closed” cases are not being reported at all in some places and understated largely in many others.  The best estimate of the mortality rate of Covid 19 would be to divide the number of deaths caused by the virus (A) by the total number of infected (B). 

 

Finding A

To get the total number of deaths you need to start with reported numbers and adjust up for undiagnosed and up/down for misdiagnosed.   While there are some deaths that go unreported it seems likely a small # as most deaths involve a death certificate and cause determined by some authority (M.D or coroner etc).  Misdiagnosed deaths are those where comorbidity (multiple health problems led to death) and erroneous determinations are involved.  These numbers are likely high and tend to overstate the Covid 19 deaths due to the high # of deaths of elderly sick at same time a drop of reported deaths of other illnesses and the fiscal incentive to include any possible cases as Covid 19s for the providers.  One can only use a best guess on this but imo probably 25% of reported deaths are NOT fairly called Covid 19 caused. 

thus      A  = 80,000 approx

 

Finding B

 

The total # of covid 19 infections in the country is unknown although good estimates are possible and are critical to good decision making for everyone concerned.  Why the CDC and NIH refuse to report this information is hard to say but certainly a political agenda involved.  The total of positive tested patients plus all those who got infected but didnt get diagnosed or didnt even know it. This is a BIG # imo. 

Several studies by reputable orgs have been offered with wide ranges of multipliers (10 to 65).  I will use the middle of 37 as a best guestimate, although personally I think the number is much higher. 

Thus B = 1.8 million + ( 37 x 1.8 million ) = 68.4 million. 

 

Thus the estimated mortality rate across entire population is:

         80,000 / 68,400,000 =
                0.00117%.  

The mortality for young healthy adults (college age) is virtually nil as most of 80,000 are in the plus age 35 groups. 

 

To discuss closed cases required good data which we also dont have but can get a rough estimate by using a 21 day period for average duration of the illness (start of symptoms to end).  This is kind of the quaratine duration and maybe higher than reality to be safe.  Reported closed # s are nowhere close as agencies vary widely or dont bother at all. 

Roughly 20,000 new reported cases daily for last 21 days = 420,000 currently infected x 37 unidentified = 15 million with the virus.  But as time passes, it seems reasonable to expect the identification is getting better and of course the population is much more aware and millions more tests are done.  

Closed (reported only) cases would therefore be approx 1.5 million.   Using only reported data, the mortality would be 105,000 / 1,500,000 = 7%.  

 

I would further suggest, however, that deaths for those in nursing & care home settings be excluded.   In the process of opening up colleges and other areas of the economy, those most at risk of serious illness/death can remain isolated from the rest of society.  

[Huskers93-97]

2 hours ago, 84HuskerLaw said:

The “closed” cases are not being reported at all in some places and understated largely in many others.  The best estimate of the mortality rate of Covid 19 would be to divide the number of deaths caused by the virus (A) by the total number of infected (B). 

 

Finding A

To get the total number of deaths you need to start with reported numbers and adjust up for undiagnosed and up/down for misdiagnosed.   While there are some deaths that go unreported it seems likely a small # as most deaths involve a death certificate and cause determined by some authority (M.D or coroner etc).  Misdiagnosed deaths are those where comorbidity (multiple health problems led to death) and erroneous determinations are involved.  These numbers are likely high and tend to overstate the Covid 19 deaths due to the high # of deaths of elderly sick at same time a drop of reported deaths of other illnesses and the fiscal incentive to include any possible cases as Covid 19s for the providers.  One can only use a best guess on this but imo probably 25% of reported deaths are NOT fairly called Covid 19 caused. 

thus      A  = 80,000 approx

 

Finding B

 

The total # of covid 19 infections in the country is unknown although good estimates are possible and are critical to good decision making for everyone concerned.  Why the CDC and NIH refuse to report this information is hard to say but certainly a political agenda involved.  The total of positive tested patients plus all those who got infected but didnt get diagnosed or didnt even know it. This is a BIG # imo. 

Several studies by reputable orgs have been offered with wide ranges of multipliers (10 to 65).  I will use the middle of 37 as a best guestimate, although personally I think the number is much higher. 

Thus B = 1.8 million + ( 37 x 1.8 million ) = 68.4 million. 

 

Thus the estimated mortality rate across entire population is:

         80,000 / 68,400,000 =
                0.00117%.  

The mortality for young healthy adults (college age) is virtually nil as most of 80,000 are in the plus age 35 groups. 

 

To discuss closed cases required good data which we also dont have but can get a rough estimate by using a 21 day period for average duration of the illness (start of symptoms to end).  This is kind of the quaratine duration and maybe higher than reality to be safe.  Reported closed # s are nowhere close as agencies vary widely or dont bother at all. 

Roughly 20,000 new reported cases daily for last 21 days = 420,000 currently infected x 37 unidentified = 15 million with the virus.  But as time passes, it seems reasonable to expect the identification is getting better and of course the population is much more aware and millions more tests are done.  

Closed (reported only) cases would therefore be approx 1.5 million.   Using only reported data, the mortality would be 105,000 / 1,500,000 = 7%.  

 

I would further suggest, however, that deaths for those in nursing & care home settings be excluded.   In the process of opening up colleges and other areas of the economy, those most at risk of serious illness/death can remain isolated from the rest of society.  

Thank you for typing the details out that I was alluding to. I am not about to type that much on a phone 

[84HuskerLaw]

1 minute ago, Huskers93-97 said:

Thank you for typing the details out that I was alluding to. I am not about to type that much on a phone 

Yes.  its a pain on my phone.  Id like to do a bunch more searching for details but space and time limits...   

 Its very complicated too so trying to distill down to a few sentences is tough.  The bottom line, imo, is that the pandemic is real and a major challenge but it is NOT deadly enough to justify continuing the shutdowns of life in general.  The cost (fiscal and social and health etc) is far too high.  Saving lives is very important but how many - in the final analysis - remains unknown.  The social distancing and shutdown consequences (jobs, $, stress on people and families) are HUGE and perhaps generational in duration. The eradication of Covid 19 is all but impossible and past history with bad viral outbreaks suggests this one will be with us for years and years.

  There is always hope but society cant wait that long or the damage will be irreparable.  We are already on the verge of an economic DEPRESSION, the deaths and suffering of such, would be in the many millions.  Depression economics are HORRIBLE and can be decades long!

 

Much of the globe is still in the early stages I am afraid.  Limiting international travel may be needed until herd immunity or vaccines and affordable, effective therapies are found, even after the USA is mostly through the worst of it.   

[twofittyonred]

8 hours ago, 84HuskerLaw said:

these infections are not from sports participation.  Presumably from home.   Deaths?   Of course you value the economy over someone’s life.  You always value the lives of the many over the few. 

 

There is a HUGE difference in the comparison of death to economic struggle...  Do you usually compare apples to zebras as well..?? 

[Huskers93-97]

30 minutes ago, twofittyonred said:

There is a HUGE difference in the comparison of death to economic struggle...  Do you usually compare apples to zebras as well..?? 

When your a leader you have to make hard decisions. Get all the facts, and make an informed decision that weighs all the risks and rewards. Majority of the country is trending towards the lesser of two evils which is re-opening the economy. Some were meant to lead and others were meant to follow- then complain about the decisions. Its been that way since forever. We need to do what is best for the 99% not the 1%. Look at all the factors that lead to the deaths of the 1% and protect that demographic of people. Then let the other 99% of folks continue living their lives and keeping the world out of depression. I am sure some folks who are making more on the current unemployment benefits would love the lockdown to last forever. But that is not what's best for everyone.

[Mavric]

9 hours ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Please read my post again, a little slower. 

 

The only way to measure the fatality rate of COVID is from the COVID cases that have been closed, when people have either recovered or died. 

 

This is from Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#news.  It's not political. I swear. 

 

 

 

Eh ... lies, damn lies and statistics.  If you want to tell a story you can probably find a way to present numbers to back it up.

 

I don't know what the threshold is for when they consider a case finalized to have "an outcome".  But obviously the ones that end in death are going to get to an outcome a lot faster than the ones that don't.  So framing it that way is always going to make it look worse than it actually is until all cases have reached an outcome. 

 

If you looked that the same thing a month ago the death percentage would have probably been 50%.  But that's pretty misleading.

[Guy Chamberlin]

7 hours ago, 84HuskerLaw said:

The “closed” cases are not being reported at all in some places and understated largely in many others.  The best estimate of the mortality rate of Covid 19 would be to divide the number of deaths caused by the virus (A) by the total number of infected (B). 

 

Finding A

To get the total number of deaths you need to start with reported numbers and adjust up for undiagnosed and up/down for misdiagnosed.   While there are some deaths that go unreported it seems likely a small # as most deaths involve a death certificate and cause determined by some authority (M.D or coroner etc).  Misdiagnosed deaths are those where comorbidity (multiple health problems led to death) and erroneous determinations are involved.  These numbers are likely high and tend to overstate the Covid 19 deaths due to the high # of deaths of elderly sick at same time a drop of reported deaths of other illnesses and the fiscal incentive to include any possible cases as Covid 19s for the providers.  One can only use a best guess on this but imo probably 25% of reported deaths are NOT fairly called Covid 19 caused. 

thus      A  = 80,000 approx

 

Finding B

 

The total # of covid 19 infections in the country is unknown although good estimates are possible and are critical to good decision making for everyone concerned.  Why the CDC and NIH refuse to report this information is hard to say but certainly a political agenda involved.  The total of positive tested patients plus all those who got infected but didnt get diagnosed or didnt even know it. This is a BIG # imo. 

Several studies by reputable orgs have been offered with wide ranges of multipliers (10 to 65).  I will use the middle of 37 as a best guestimate, although personally I think the number is much higher. 

Thus B = 1.8 million + ( 37 x 1.8 million ) = 68.4 million. 

 

Thus the estimated mortality rate across entire population is:

         80,000 / 68,400,000 =
                0.00117%.  

The mortality for young healthy adults (college age) is virtually nil as most of 80,000 are in the plus age 35 groups. 

 

To discuss closed cases required good data which we also dont have but can get a rough estimate by using a 21 day period for average duration of the illness (start of symptoms to end).  This is kind of the quaratine duration and maybe higher than reality to be safe.  Reported closed # s are nowhere close as agencies vary widely or dont bother at all. 

Roughly 20,000 new reported cases daily for last 21 days = 420,000 currently infected x 37 unidentified = 15 million with the virus.  But as time passes, it seems reasonable to expect the identification is getting better and of course the population is much more aware and millions more tests are done.  

Closed (reported only) cases would therefore be approx 1.5 million.   Using only reported data, the mortality would be 105,000 / 1,500,000 = 7%.  

 

I would further suggest, however, that deaths for those in nursing & care home settings be excluded.   In the process of opening up colleges and other areas of the economy, those most at risk of serious illness/death can remain isolated from the rest of society.  

 

Do you realize that this long response with lots of numbers and fancy words is loaded mostly with your personal unprofessional speculation and does nothing to refute my post? 

 

I weep for your law clients.

 

We could talk about the likelihood that COVID-19 deaths are actually under-reported, but we should move that over to P&R. 

 

Just to sum this up: there's a lot we don't know. A lot at stake. Tough choices to make. 

[teachercd]

On 5/30/2020 at 2:23 PM, Moiraine said:

Evictions are legal again in Nebraska on June 1.

I could not imagine being a landlord in some places right now.  My buddy lives in a complex in Cali...and before all this even started his fellow renters already started a group chat about never paying rent again.  He was like "Ummm, why?  If you can pay your rent, you should be paying" 

[Guy Chamberlin]

37 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

Eh ... lies, damn lies and statistics.  If you want to tell a story you can probably find a way to present numbers to back it up.

 

I don't know what the threshold is for when they consider a case finalized to have "an outcome".  But obviously the ones that end in death are going to get to an outcome a lot faster than the ones that don't.  So framing it that way is always going to make it look worse than it actually is until all cases have reached an outcome. 

 

If you looked that the same thing a month ago the death percentage would have probably been 50%.  But that's pretty misleading.

 

Closed Cases simply compiles the people who have been diagnosed with COVID and either recovered or died. The outcome for recovery is that they are no longer being treated for COVID and have been discharged with a clean bill of health. It's a moving window, but it's always accurate for the compiled list of closed cases on any given day. Knowing that there are another 1.2 million active cases moving through the system allows you to track the strength of the virus and/or the success of treatment. Fatality rate was definitely higher in March when fewer cases could be added to Recovered and hospitals were overwhelmed, but given that the fatality rate continues to drop suggests framing it this way doesn't make it look worse, it actually makes it look better. Naturally we won't know the final tally until it's all over, but the whole thing is a moving target. 100,000 deaths in three months suggests it wasn't hype, nothing really misleading. At the same time, we have to move forward. I think we're all telling the same story.