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Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)


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1 hour ago, Moiraine said:

I've been trying to think of the best way to measure this. On the one hand we have way more people than Italy. On the other we are a lot more spread out. It's gonna spread faster in our cities but should spread more slowly overall.

 

I've been curious about that as well.  I was thinking maybe comparing Italy to California would be in the ballpark.  Italy has roughly 50% more population and twice the population density.  But a lot of California's population is on the coast.  So if you ignored the east half of California or probably two-thirds (where relatively few people live) it would probably be fairly similar.

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i have a couple n-95 masks.  i bought them for demo work last winter.   i opened the 3 pack and used 1 mask and closed the package.     i assume since the pack was opened they can't be donated?   or is the shortage severe enough that unused masks from an open pack are acceptable?  i know it's only 2...but i feel they are going to waste sitting in my storage at a time like this

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Only 1% of all cases will be severe.

 

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The US population is 5.5X greater than Italy, 6X larger than South Korea, and 25% the size of China.

 

Comparing the US total number of cases in absolute terms is rather silly.

 

Rank ordering based on the total number of cases shows that the US on a per-capita basis is significantly lower than the top six nations by case volume. On a 1 million citizen per-capita basis, the US moves to above mid-pack of all countries and rising, with similar case volume as Singapore (385 cases), Cyprus (75 cases), and United Kingdom(3,983 cases). This is data as of March 20th, 2020.

 

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31 minutes ago, Thurston from Pender said:

Facts, charts and stats. 

 

Don’r panic.

 

http://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

 

 

A LONG article, but puts forth a lot of great information.  Personally, I feel that we are being bombarded and getting information overload.  Hard to decipher facts from intent........Once the frenzy starts, it's hard to stop it.  Then you have the poltics being thrown in.........Your article does put things in a "calmer" less "panicked" perspective.....

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It's gonna be ugly for a few weeks, and we're starring down the worst of it in the coming weeks. Fact is many will lose this battle, and those people are likely going to be elder with underlying conditions. The good news is science WILL beat this, just a matter of when. Already hearing some very good breakthroughs, hopefully we will have a very strong treatment plan in the coming weeks and take a chunk out of this thing.

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I don’t think the U.S. will experience a mortality rate anywhere near as high as Italy’s, for a number of reasons including our younger population, far fewer smokers, lower population density, a better health care system and early deployment of anti-viral drugs, some of which are likely to prove helpful. But let’s assume the U.S. ultimately sees a mortality rate of 100 per million. That would be 143 times the current U.S. rate, not outside the realm of possibility. Do the math: if we have around 330 million people, and 100 die per million, that equals 33,000, which would be equivalent to the deaths from an average seasonal flu season. Maybe it’s worse than that; maybe by the time it runs its course, the death toll from COVID-19 rises to 200 per million, 286 times the current rate. That would still be less than the death toll from flu in the U.S. just two years ago.

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15 minutes ago, Thurston from Pender said:

I don’t think the U.S. will experience a mortality rate anywhere near as high as Italy’s, for a number of reasons including our younger population, far fewer smokers, lower population density, a better health care system and early deployment of anti-viral drugs, some of which are likely to prove helpful. But let’s assume the U.S. ultimately sees a mortality rate of 100 per million. That would be 143 times the current U.S. rate, not outside the realm of possibility. Do the math: if we have around 330 million people, and 100 die per million, that equals 33,000, which would be equivalent to the deaths from an average seasonal flu season. Maybe it’s worse than that; maybe by the time it runs its course, the death toll from COVID-19 rises to 200 per million, 286 times the current rate. That would still be less than the death toll from flu in the U.S. just two years ago.

we are trying to prevent this from hitting everyone at once and overwhelming the medical profession.      italy has problems because of the overwhelming case load.  doctors CAN't treat everyone at once.   we are hoping to slow the spread of the disease to over a few months rather than a few weeks.    hopefully when the first wave is over we have a degree of herd immunity and future waves will not hit so hard at once.

 

edit to add.....we also have a fair percentage of the population inoculated with a vaccine against the flu.....there is nothing like that yet for this virus.

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I wonder what the death toll will be, as a percent of those who contract the virus?  I read one article saying about 2.3% died out of 77,000 who were infected.  Another source (LINK) says 19,774 people in the U.S. have contracted the virus, resulting in 281 deaths.  This works out to be about 1.3%.  

 

I'd be willing to bet that the overall death percentage (in the U.S., anyway) is somewhat lower than either of these instances--likely something less than 1%.  I'm basing this on guessing that the total number of cases reported so far includes mostly the more serious cases.  I suspect a lot of people have already had the virus, or have it now, but only exhibit minor symptoms.  They're the ones who won't be affected by it, but will unknowingly pass it on to many others.  Some of whom will have more severe symptoms, including death in some instances.  

 

I'm just spittballing here.  You know, since I'm not a medical doctor or anything.  

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1 hour ago, Thurston from Pender said:

Only 1% of all cases will be severe.

You have any evidence for that claim? The WHO is reporting 14% of cases were severe (emphasis mine):

 

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A majority of patients with COVID-19 are adults. Among 44 672 patients in China with confirmed infection, 2.1%
were below the age of 20. The most commonly reported symptoms included fever, dry cough, and shortness of
breath, and most patients (80%) experienced mild illness. Approximately 14% experienced severe disease and 5%
were critically ill.
Early reports suggest that illness severity is associated with age (>60 years old) and co-morbid
disease. 

 

4 minutes ago, NUance said:

I wonder what the death toll will be, as a percent of those who contract the virus?  I read one article saying about 2.3% died out of 77,000 who were infected.  Another source (LINK) says 19,774 people in the U.S. have contracted the virus, resulting in 281 deaths.  This works out to be about 1.3%.  

 

I'd be willing to bet that the overall death percentage (in the U.S., anyway) is somewhat lower than either of these instances--likely something less than 1%.  I'm basing this on guessing that the total number of cases reported so far includes mostly the more serious cases.  I suspect a lot of people have already had the virus, or have it now, but only exhibit minor symptoms.  They're the ones who won't be affected by it, but will unknowingly pass it on to many others.  Some of whom will have more severe symptoms, including death in some instances.  

 

I'm just spittballing here.  You know, since I'm not a medical doctor or anything.  

I linked an article somewhere earlier in this thread that I can't find now, but it had an analysis of cases that showed the mortality rate was 0.5-0.9% in places where the healthcare system wasn't overwhelmed, but a mortality rate of 3-5% where the healthcare system was overwhelmed. I suspect that different parts of the US will have different mortality rates depending on a variety of factors but percentage of elderly in the population and whether the healthcare system is overwhelmed seem like the biggest predictors of high mortality rate IMO.

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