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Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)


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Just now, RedDenver said:

You have any evidence for that claim? The WHO is reporting 14% of cases were severe (emphasis mine):

 

 

I linked an article somewhere earlier in this thread that I can't find now, but it had an analysis of cases that showed the mortality rate was 0.5-0.9% in places where the healthcare system wasn't overwhelmed, but a mortality rate of 3-5% where the healthcare system was overwhelmed. I suspect that different parts of the US will have different mortality rates depending on a variety of factors but percentage of elderly in the population and whether the healthcare system is overwhelmed seem like the biggest predictors of high mortality rate IMO.

 

Yeah, that sounds reasonable. 

 

So ... what can be done for a person who checks into a hospital suffering from Coronavirus?  I mean, it's a virus.  And there's no antidote.   Is it a matter of keeping hydrated?  Or keeping high fever temperatures down.  How do hospitals treat this anyway?   

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some people just dont f#&%ing get it   Whether or not your symptoms are as sucky as  the flu has nothing to do with the severity of the situation.

March — major PPE shortage, virtually all experts agree in saving masks for front line workers.   Present — no mask shortage.  Experts (except Trumpers) say wear a friggin mask in public.   Situat

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3 minutes ago, NUance said:

 

Yeah, that sounds reasonable. 

 

So ... what can be done for a person who checks into a hospital suffering from Coronavirus?  I mean, it's a virus.  And there's no antidote.   Is it a matter of keeping hydrated?  Or keeping high fever temperatures down.  How do hospitals treat this anyway?   

 

There are antiviral drugs, but so far none of been too successful with slowing the disease.

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5 minutes ago, NUance said:

 

Yeah, that sounds reasonable. 

 

So ... what can be done for a person who checks into a hospital suffering from Coronavirus?  I mean, it's a virus.  And there's no antidote.   Is it a matter of keeping hydrated?  Or keeping high fever temperatures down.  How do hospitals treat this anyway?   

Hydration and respiratory assistance.  That's why the number of ventilators and respiratory therapists is concerning to the dr's and nurses.

 

The reason we are short on masks and PPE is because everyone with a cough is coming into the ER looking for help.  My wife is experiencing this at Methodist Womens. Then they are given the advice to go home and report back if it gets serious.  Nothing happened except supplies used and attention from other emergencies taken away...

 

@drfish can explain more.  He had a pretty good summary a while back.

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9 minutes ago, NUance said:

 

Yeah, that sounds reasonable. 

 

So ... what can be done for a person who checks into a hospital suffering from Coronavirus?  I mean, it's a virus.  And there's no antidote.   Is it a matter of keeping hydrated?  Or keeping high fever temperatures down.  How do hospitals treat this anyway?   

Treat symptoms. They will probably try an antiviral - studies being done on which ones are effective. We're gonna monitor fever and SPO2 (blood oxygen). If you dip below 90% on SPO2 were gonna add supplemental oxygen. If that continues to tank pressure will be added, CPAP/BiPAP, if you continue to tank, we will intubate and put you on a ventilator, try to bring down the edema, and hope you don't develop ARDS.

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Thanks for the info!   

 

I think I'll head out to play some golf this afternoon, carrying my bag.  I'll tell my wife I'm building up my lungs.  :thumbs

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37 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

You have any evidence for that claim? The WHO is reporting 14% of cases were severe (emphasis mine):

 

I think the article that he is pulling the 1% number from is mis-stating that percentage.

 

However, the data that you are citing is now three weeks old and was based on the first 44,000 confirmed in China.  The WHO is no longer reporting a percentage in their daily sit reps (as far as I can tell) which may mean they don't really have a number they feel confident enough to report.  The number of confirmed cases around the world has increased significantly over that time.  It only stands to reason that the most severe cases are the first ones to be documented so it is extremely likely that the percentage of severe cases would fall considerably as more data is available, more testing is done and more less-severe (i.e., harder-to-find) cases are documented.  To what extent, I have no idea.

 

I tried to find numbers on that currently being reported but I can't really find anything.  The only thing I've been able to find is on fatalities which would obviously be a sub-set of severe cases but it would seem logical to track proportionately.  It seems like the percentages of fatalities has gone down significantly as more cases are documented - which only makes sense - so it would also seem extremely likely that the percentage of severe cases would go down significantly as well.

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29 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

I think the article that he is pulling the 1% number from is mis-stating that percentage.

 

However, the data that you are citing is now three weeks old and was based on the first 44,000 confirmed in China.  The WHO is no longer reporting a percentage in their daily sit reps (as far as I can tell) which may mean they don't really have a number they feel confident enough to report.  The number of confirmed cases around the world has increased significantly over that time.  It only stands to reason that the most severe cases are the first ones to be documented so it is extremely likely that the percentage of severe cases would fall considerably as more data is available, more testing is done and more less-severe (i.e., harder-to-find) cases are documented.  To what extent, I have no idea.

 

I tried to find numbers on that currently being reported but I can't really find anything.  The only thing I've been able to find is on fatalities which would obviously be a sub-set of severe cases but it would seem logical to track proportionately.  It seems like the percentages of fatalities has gone down significantly as more cases are documented - which only makes sense - so it would also seem extremely likely that the percentage of severe cases would go down significantly as well.

Good points, but I'm not seeing any evidence the number of severe cases is 1%, which is what he claimed.

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@Mavric @Thurston from Pender Here's more recent data from the CDC (emphasis mine) showing that 12% were hospitalized and 2.9% were admitted to the ICU:

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020

Quote

 

As of March 16, a total of 4,226 COVID-19 cases had been reported in the United States, with reports increasing to 500 or more cases per day beginning March 14 (Figure 1). Among 2,449 patients with known age, 6% were aged ≥85, 25% were aged 65–84 years, 18% each were aged 55–64 years and 45–54 years, and 29% were aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). Only 5% of cases occurred in persons aged 0–19 years.

 

Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 36% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among persons aged ≤19 years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years. (Table).

 

Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table).

 

Among 44 cases with known outcome, 15 (34%) deaths were reported among adults aged ≥85 years, 20 (46%) among adults aged 65–84 years, and nine (20%) among adults aged 20–64 years. Case-fatality percentages increased with increasing age, from no deaths reported among persons aged ≤19 years to highest percentages (10%–27%) among adults aged ≥85 years (Table) (Figure 2).

 

As Mavric posted above, these are early results and there's reason to think the percentages will decrease as more thorough testing is performed.

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2 hours ago, Thurston from Pender said:

But let’s assume the U.S. ultimately sees a mortality rate of 100 per million. 

 

Why would wee assume that? We're currently at a mortality rate a little higher than 100 per 10,000 (22k cases, 288 dead). Your math assumption doesn't work unless you think there's another almost 2.8 million people out there that currently have it right now, aren't tracked or known, and nobody else dies.

 

 

2 hours ago, Thurston from Pender said:

Do the math: if we have around 330 million people, and 100 die per million, that equals 33,000, which would be equivalent to the deaths from an average seasonal flu season. Maybe it’s worse than that; maybe by the time it runs its course, the death toll from COVID-19 rises to 200 per million, 286 times the current rate. That would still be less than the death toll from flu in the U.S. just two years ago.

 

If you go by actual projections and/or reasonable assumptions of the math, you're still nowhere in the ballpark of realistic math yet.

 

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49 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Good points, but I'm not seeing any evidence the number of severe cases is 1%, which is what he claimed.

 

According to the article he linked which reports the 1% number, that is 1% of everyone tested will have a severe case.  So that's not a very reliable number because obviously there is some number that will test negative.  But there will also be some number that have a mild symptoms that will not be tested.  Who (not WHO) knows how much those two variables will cancel out.

 

The best number I've been able to find with current data comes from worldometers which appears to be where @knapplc posted some earlier information.  It is unclear whether their "Serious, Critial" numbers are total overall or just of active cases.  But their world-wide numbers would put the number as between 7.3% and 11.5%, depending on which of those numbers you use.

 

Edit: I just noticed that "Total Deaths" and "Serious, Critical" are mutually exclusive in their numbers.  So I recalculated to include both numbers in the percentages.  And added the clarification of "world-wide".

Edited by Mavric
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12 minutes ago, teachercd said:

I could listen to Dr. Fauci all day!  

 

Also, is anyone else watching Outbreak on Netflix?

Caught a little on cable.  

 

Patrick Dempsey is a real dreamboat.

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57 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Good points, but I'm not seeing any evidence the number of severe cases is 1%, which is what he claimed.

 

Of course, the numbers I listed above were world-wide.  If you run the same numbers for the US, it would currently be 1.5% to 1.6% ("Total Deaths" plus "Serious, Critical").

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