Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

[N is for nowledge]

Yep totally legit.  Nothing to see here, just accurate “models” proven inaccurate by the day and by the hour.  Btw, all the models built in social distancing measures taken since early to mid March.

[BigRedBuster]

1 hour ago, N is for nowledge said:

Original projections...1.5-2.5 million deaths.    The assumptions of what the real death toll in Wuhan is, is fairly close to this.  That's with locking down the city....late.
projection 2.0...100k-240k deaths, off after first week in NYC by 50k hospitalizations.  Used NYC as major input for the whole model.

Still could reach 100,000.  Especially if social limitations are lifted too early.  We are at 11,000+ in less than 4 weeks. 

Projection 3.0.  ~ 80k deaths, cdc director admitted next day those were likely off significantly.  NYC, the major input for the model, on the day of the update was ~15-20k hospitalizations off.  Same as 2.0.

 

projection 2.0 didn’t assume anything we haven’t been doing since mid March and should have been included.  Yes it did.  Nothing has changed since 2.0 to 3.0 yet deaths have been adjusted from 240k to 80k with the admission those are also likely high.  This models are the exact opposite of “ACCURATE” or as you said...”not that far off”.

 

[BigRedBuster]

2 hours ago, Loebarth said:

@N is for nowledge

The majority of posters/readers here won't like this post... oh well, so what. I totally agree with everything you're saying here bud and that said, I think you've proven that you can't fix stupid/ignorance/sheepals blind beliefs. Follow my lead on this one, read the forum, stay informed, speak only with your loved ones and immediate friends on this while letting the sheepal cater to their own fears.

 

2 hours ago, Loebarth said:

D'oh... thought I hit edit. sorry for the double post. I'm such a noob forum user.

as for the original question..

No there won't be a season without an inoculation. The reason is simple, risk vs reward.

Team A plays Team B week 1 and Team C week 2.

Team A has a player test positive before week 3 game and is forced to forfeit.

Teams B & C because they were exposed and may also have infections will also be required to forfeit.

The team (say team D) that played team B in week 2 may also be exposed to they too are required to forfeit.

and well.... on and on and on go the forfeits...

 

Nope, I don't see a 2020 season. Hope I'm wrong though.

 

So...let me get this straight.  In your first post, you state that you agree with the idea to open everything up and get things going because it's no where close to as bad as the experts are portraying it.

 

In your next post, you explain why (if there isn't a vaccine or major treatment breakthrough, we shouldn't have a season.

 

What is different in your second post than what anyone (me) has been saying?  You portray anyone (me) as "sheepals" whatever that is and stupid, ignorant...  I've simply been saying that we listen to the experts, and the sooner we do that, this gets under control so down the road, we can open up.

What is "catering to their own fears" about that?  

 

Am I to assume that you believe all social limitations should be lifted immediately and what ever happens happens because it's no where close to as bad as the experts say?

[junior4949]

14 minutes ago, N is for nowledge said:

Even more reason to put a stop to this sooner rather than later.  While this is a football thread my point is it’s more than football.  If you’d cant/won’t have football, you can say goodbye to many other things that are way more important if not essential.

 

What does the bolded even mean?  We're talking about workers deemed essential.  They aren't under restrictions.  Even if all restrictions are lifted on everyone else, the truckers want masks and gear.  The beef and pork sectors are in the tank because of lack of processing ability.  Packing plant workers aren't under stay at home restrictions.  As long as the virus is around and people are getting sick, none of this is going to change regardless of whether we open everything back up or not.  Without a vaccine, it matters little if everything opens up.  People will still be scared of catching the virus, thus staying closer to home and avoiding crowds. 

[N is for nowledge]

6 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

Again.  2.0 isn’t valid anymore we are on 3.0 which cdc director already said is inflated.  No, 2.0 and 3.0 nothing has changed except for actual data being used instead of using NYC and Italy across the entire nation.  Social distancing was already accounted for in 2.0 and same measures in 3.0.  Only change is actuals from domestic results.  3.0 just updated on Sunday is already off significantly, see attached chart I posted just before this.  This is GOOD news and don’t understand the dunking saying otherwise.  I’m still not sure how anyone defends the models as “accurate” when they’re anything but.  Even Fauci and birx have backed away saying they’re only as good as the “assumptions” made.  Is this kind of like a magic 8 ball?

[BigRedBuster]

6 minutes ago, N is for nowledge said:

Again.  2.0 isn’t valid anymore we are on 3.0 which cdc director already said is inflated.  No, 2.0 and 3.0 nothing has changed except for actual data being used instead of using NYC and Italy across the entire nation.  Social distancing was already accounted for in 2.0 and same measures in 3.0.  Only change is actuals from domestic results.  3.0 just updated on Sunday is already off significantly, see attached chart I posted just before this.  This is GOOD news and don’t understand the dunking saying otherwise.  I’m still not sure how anyone defends the models as “accurate” when they’re anything but.  Even Fauci and birx have backed away saying they’re only as good as the “assumptions” made.  Is this kind of like a magic 8 ball?

Yep, it was.  That doesn't change anything as to the validity of the projection.  Nothing was known as to how extensive the social distancing would be and how well the American public would adhere to it.

 

Still, nothing you have posted proves what you are trying to state.

[Loebarth]

50 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

 

 

So...let me get this straight.  In your first post, you state that you agree with the idea to open everything up and get things going because it's no where close to as bad as the experts are portraying it. - I would agree with this dissection of my statement.

 

In your next post, you explain why (if there isn't a vaccine or major treatment breakthrough, we shouldn't have a season. - My point is not my position. My point is the bloviation of the flu. Because of this "bloviation" the resulting effect will be more needless fear resulting in extending isolation and quarantine policies.

 

What is different in your second post than what anyone (me) has been saying?  You portray anyone (me) as "sheepals" whatever that is and stupid, ignorant...  I've simply been saying that we listen to the experts, and the sooner we do that, this gets under control so down the road, we can open up. - Instead of allowing the media to push your fears start trying to see whats not being discussed. Research what 4th generation warfare is and how it's implemented. Until you recognize the world government's censorship of media releases and recognize how multi-media platforms are restricting our "freedom of speech" rights by banning/de-monetizing/posting warnings/etc... you'll never understand my concerns. Seriously, the national guard going door to door in Texas, California, Colorado, Connecticut and several other states stating they may also call in the guard. Ending the use of cash suggestions/rumors, moving the CDC to Jerusalem (Link: https://politics.theonion.com/triumphant-jared-kushner-announces-plan-to-move-cdc-hea-1842410349")

What is "catering to their own fears" about that?  - People panic and the military industrial complex is well aware of this... again research 4th generation warfare. FFS - they have us locking ourselves up under the guise of fearing an invisible enemy. Really? Why now, why not with last years influenza 490,000 infections / 34,000 deaths. (link: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html )

 

Am I to assume that you believe all social limitations should be lifted immediately and what ever happens happens because it's no where close to as bad as the experts say? - I believe this version is potentially more severe yes but I don't believe the lockdown of our peoples coupled with the suggestions of containment going forward (edit are an abuse of power) and are very much over hyped and unnecessary.

 

Lastly, because I don't enjoy spending hours on a topic to discuss an opinion or to defend my opinion or other's opinions I won't respond again. I responded because you asked me to (thank you) but I won't participate further. It's an interesting read, fun to follow, allows me to know the participants on the forum. So yes, the thread is entertaining but only that. It's not informative, it's not proof on any one point, it's not right nor wrong. It's simply entertaining.

 

[N is for nowledge]

1 minute ago, junior4949 said:

 

What does the bolded even mean?  We're talking about workers deemed essential.  They aren't under restrictions.  Even if all restrictions are lifted on everyone else, the truckers want masks and gear.  The beef and pork sectors are in the tank because of lack of processing ability.  Packing plant workers aren't under stay at home restrictions.  As long as the virus is around and people are getting sick, none of this is going to change regardless of whether we open everything back up or not.  Without a vaccine, it matters little if everything opens up.  People will still be scared of catching the virus, thus staying closer to home and avoiding crowds. 

If people are scared of this disease than they’ve literally talked themselves into a hysteria that shouldn’t exist and should start looking at additional sources for information.  It is still believed that the fatality is somewhere between .4-.7% with the majority of those being in people with advanced age or several comorbidities.  
 

ppe is coming and people should get.  My point is it’s all a ripple affect.  People don’t work in a bubble and more pay might be available if demand was larger.  It’s not just about truck drivers or health care workers, that contrary to the narrative, are being layed off and furloughed in waves.

[BigRedBuster]

 

 

12 minutes ago, Loebarth said:

- Instead of allowing the media to push your fears start trying to see whats not being discussed. Research what 4th generation warfare is and how it's implemented. Until you recognize the world government's censorship of media releases and recognize how multi-media platforms are restricting our "freedom of speech" rights by banning/de-monetizing/posting warnings/etc... you'll never understand my concerns. Seriously, the national guard going door to door in Texas, California, Colorado, Connecticut and several other states stating they may also call in the guard. Ending the use of cash suggestions/rumors, moving the CDC to Jerusalem (Link: https://politics.theonion.com/triumphant-jared-kushner-announces-plan-to-move-cdc-hea-1842410349")

You literally quoted The Onion as a source.  

 

[N is for nowledge]

1 hour ago, BigRedBuster said:

Yep, it was.  That doesn't change anything as to the validity of the projection.  Nothing was known as to how extensive the social distancing would be and how well the American public would adhere to it.

 

Still, nothing you have posted proves what you are trying to state.

Just what I thought it wasn’t that the elite “experts” could have possibly been wrong, it’s because social distancing had such a dramatic affect.  Let’s say I agree with that, which I don’t, why the significant discrepancy from 2.0 to 3.0.  Why is 3.0 also off significantly just 2 days into the 3.0 model.  2.0 to 3.0 social distancing didn’t change at all....and absolutely zero has changed to skew the “model”  over the last 

 

on another note, is using model that even an “accurate” one based on your observations, is only 30-40% accurate projected vs actual.   Should we really be leaning on it to make major decisions or policy.  Like um closing the country. 

[BigRedBuster]

6 minutes ago, N is for nowledge said:

on another note, is using model that even an “accurate” one based on your observations, is only 30-40% accurate projected vs actual.   Should we really be leaning on it to make major decisions or policy.  Like um closing the country. 

You use the information you have and adjust as you go.

 

So...according to you, we shouldn't have had any social limitations put on us at all.

 

BTW...1,600+ dead today and we have 4 more hours to go.  By far the deadliest day yet.

 

So...since you're the infectious disease expert, how high are these going to go?  We already had one supposedly expert tell us that we only have 15 cases in the country and it's going to go to zero soon.  That was oh....about 12,400+ deaths ago....over 3-4 weeks.

 

[knapplc]

What the hell happened in this thread today?

[BigRedBuster]

2 minutes ago, knapplc said:

What the hell happened in this thread today?

This conversation was going on in a thread in the football forum.  It got moved here.

 

I did learn that the Onion is a good source for information.

[BigRedBuster]

13 minutes ago, N is for nowledge said:

Just what I thought it wasn’t that the elite “experts” could have possibly been wrong, it’s because social distancing had such a dramatic affect.

Ummmm....that's because more limitations have been put in place?  It's not a difficult concept here.

[N is for nowledge]

21 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

You use the information you have and adjust as you go.

 

So...according to you, we shouldn't have had any social limitations put on us at all.

 

BTW...1,600+ dead today and we have 4 more hours to go.  By far the deadliest day yet.

 

So...since you're the infectious disease expert, how high are these going to go?  We already had one supposedly expert tell us that we only have 15 cases in the country and it's going to go to zero soon.  That was oh....about 12,400+ deaths ago....over 3-4 weeks.

 

I didn’t say any social limitations, in fact I’ve said the exact opposite citing my own families behavior.  I’ve questioned for how long this is necessary.  Recall the initial goal.  To flatten the curve, don’t overburden the health care system.  Well we are furloughing health care staff across the country, hospitals are empty based on a model that continues to dissolve in accuracy if it ever had any.  This SD was never to eradicate the virus or stop all new cases.  People will get this virus for quite some time be treated and hopefully recover.  The idea that you are going to shut down/SD with each and every new case was....1) not initial goal. 2) completely unrealistic for a virus with a fatality rate of .4-.7%.
 

death always lags based on Fauci and birx.  Any death is horrible.  This is not an either or.  
 

I don’t need an MD to look at numbers and see any model that has accuracy of 30-40% shouldn’t be followed like the Bible to make large public policy decisions.

Yes dr fauci was on tv many times saying covid wasn’t going to be an issue here.  Saying it wasn’t widespread.  As late as late January.  That’s the expert you were talking about right.