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Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)


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3 hours ago, twofittyonred said:

Top of the list of most uneducated things I've seen posted on the virus.   

so please oh wise one “educate” me and so many others on this matter: 

how one get sickened by the virus and recover (the opposite of not recovering = death ultimately)  without any medical treatment (there are none per Dr Fauci - CDC etal) ?   Answer:  patient’s own immune system develops antibodies etc and wins the war vs the infecting virus.  Excluding devine intervention of course.  

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Study claiming new coronavirus can be transmitted by people without symptoms was flawed
By Kai Kupferschmidt                  Feb. 3, 2020 , 5:30 PM 

 

A paper published on 30 January in The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) about the first four people in Germany infected with a novel coronavirus made many headlines because it seemed to confirm what public health experts feared: that someone who has no symptoms from infection with the virus, named 2019-nCoV, can still transmit it to others. That might make controlling the virus much harder.

 

Chinese researchers had previously suggested asymptomatic people might transmit the virus but had not presented clear-cut evidence. “There’s no doubt after reading [the NEJM] paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring,” Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told journalists. “This study lays the question to rest.”

 

But now, it turns out that information was wrong. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the German government’s public health agency, has written a letter to NEJM to set the record straight, even though it was not involved in the paper.  LINK 

 

=======================================================  

 

This is an old article.  (Feb. 3)    But we're still operating under the premise that Covid-19 is spread by those showing no symptoms. 

 

Then there's this more recent NPR article that says Covid-19 CAN be spread by those with no symptoms.  LINK   So who's to know? 

 

I guess I put more stock in the recent NPR article than the one posted above.  :shrug:

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30 minutes ago, NUance said:

This is an old article.  (Feb. 3)    But we're still operating under the premise that Covid-19 is spread by those showing no symptoms. 

 

Then there's this more recent NPR article that says Covid-19 CAN be spread by those with no symptoms.  LINK   So who's to know? 

 

I guess I put more stock in the recent NPR article than the one posted above.  :shrug:

Thinking about this logically, I would think it would have to be able to be spread by people without symptoms.  I live in a county with a very high number of cases.  My own community had a testing site set up by the National Guard last week.  A large percentage of people who were tested were positive.  We haven't had a large number of deaths.  I know people who have tested positive from being around people who didn't know, till later, they had it.

 

So....I believe the NPR article.

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This covid-19 model was predicting 72,000 deaths by Aug. 4, new run of the model now predicts 134,000 deaths. That includes newer data and also incorporating the lifting of social distancing in various states and to various degrees.

 

Quote

What do all of these death model updates mean? Overall, these modeling improvements have resulted in considerably higher projections of cumulative COVID-19 deaths through August, primarily due to longer peaks and slower declines for locations that have passed their peaks. The magnitude of these effects vary by location, and uncertainty intervals still overlap considerably for many places. The mean cumulative projections shown in our online visualization tool and available for download are generally higher for currently included locations.

 

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14 hours ago, RedDenver said:

This covid-19 model was predicting 72,000 deaths by Aug. 4, new run of the model now predicts 134,000 deaths. That includes newer data and also incorporating the lifting of social distancing in various states and to various degrees.

 

 

 

when it started there were projections for 1-2 million US deaths and also for fewer than 100k...which shows that they are just that...

projections

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1 hour ago, DevoHusker said:

 

when it started there were projections for 1-2 million US deaths and also for fewer than 100k...which shows that they are just that...

projections

Yes, but the projection for millions was if we did nothing. However, we've done a lot of social distancing and closing of large events, so it's surprising (to me anyway) that we're still trending so high with the death count. 

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1 hour ago, RedDenver said:

Yes, but the projection for millions was if we did nothing. However, we've done a lot of social distancing and closing of large events, so it's surprising (to me anyway) that we're still trending so high with the death count. 

 

you certainly may be correct, but I am at the point where I really don't trust ANY of the projections/estimates from any source...they seem to base their stance on random detritus they pick out to prove their "stat du jour" 

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1 hour ago, RedDenver said:

Yes, but the projection for millions was if we did nothing. However, we've done a lot of social distancing and closing of large events, so it's surprising (to me anyway) that we're still trending so high with the death count. 

Also, keep in mind.  This is just till August 4th.  This isn't projecting the deaths into the fall and winter.  We will have deaths from this all the way up till we have a vaccine or major breakthrough in treatment.

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I found this interesting.  I am trying to figure out how many more deaths were in April than normal.  I can't find exactly what I'm looking for, but in 2017, there were 2,813,503 deaths.  So, that would be 7,708 per day.  LINK

 

So, in April, you would expect 231,246 deaths from normal causes.

 

As of April 29th, YTD there has been 66,000 more deaths than were expected.

 

The graph on this page is really telling.  LINK

 

Look at the last 4-5 weeks on the graph.  Sorry, can't figure out how to post it here.  You can select specific states.  Check out NY.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

I found this interesting.  I am trying to figure out how many more deaths were in April than normal.  I can't find exactly what I'm looking for, but in 2017, there were 2,813,503 deaths.  So, that would be 7,708 per day.  LINK

 

So, in April, you would expect 231,246 deaths from normal causes.

 

As of April 29th, YTD there has been 66,000 more deaths than were expected.

 

The graph on this page is really telling.  LINK

 

Look at the last 4-5 weeks on the graph.  Sorry, can't figure out how to post it here.  You can select specific states.  Check out NY.

 

 

 

Thanks BRB...the one I find intriguing is this one; where "deaths from all causes" did not really change much until mid April?...and is back to below average as of this week...?

 

image.thumb.png.001e8e40e394f4f9156df61142931886.png

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2 minutes ago, DevoHusker said:

 

Thanks BRB...the one I find intriguing is this one; where "deaths from all causes" did not really change much until mid April?...and is back to below average as of this week...?

 

 

 

From my graph, if you look at March 29 to April 25th, over that 28 day period, there were 9,563 deaths in the US.  That's 1,855 more per day than the average in 2017.  


I think the reason why the most recent week is so low is the lag in reporting and documenting.  


From my link:

 

Quote

Number of deaths reported on this page are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death. See https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm for more information. Data for New York excludes New York City. Data on all deaths excluding COVID-19 exclude deaths with an underlying cause of U07.1. Deaths with a multiple or contributing cause of U07.1 are included; therefore counts may not match the numbers of COVID-19 deaths reported elsewhere that include deaths with a multiple cause of death code of U07.1. Death counts were derived from the National Vital Statistics System database that provides the timeliest access to the data and may differ slightly from other sources due to differences in completeness, COVID-19 case definitions used, data processing, and imputation of missing dates.  

 

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