Will There Be a 2020 Football Season?

[nupowr]

As far as I am concerned there hasn't been a football season since 2010, and more realistically since about 1999.

 

[nupowr]

16 hours ago, junior4949 said:

We're living history here.  I tell my kids almost daily that these are the days they will never forget for the rest of their lives.  It's telling when my 81 year old father-in-law calls asking what I think is about to happen.  99+ percent of the general population hasn't lived this before.  I have no idea whether the season will be played this year or not.  I voted no games played.  However, I don't think this is the most important question.  The most important question is what will be the new normal once this passes?  We have no idea what the paradigm shift will be if any.  Maybe, sports just won't be that important to people.  Economists are already talking about 30-50 million people being unemployed before we get through this.  I've read about how much cleaner the air is around cities around the World because people are staying home and are not driving.  Maybe, people just won't be that interested in going to games in the future?  Maybe, they simply won't have the money?  With the Spanish Flu, it came in waves.  It's already being speculated we'll see this again potentially this fall.   

 

It is quite possible I'm reading too much into this historic event.  It is also quite possible that I'm just pi$$ed about mankind right now because it is more than a little disturbing living out here near the Colorado border watching people who are under a state stay at home order flock our lakes and our stores potentially dragging the virus here with them.  One local grocery store had to close because the Denver residents came and wiped the store out of inventory.  I just think we are way too early into this to even begin to assume there will be a football season in 2020.    

If you are close to CO you are on the edge of the ant hill.  The swarm comes for what it needs.  LOTS OF PEOPLE THERE.  

The new normal will be what the public wants.  Have to stand up for your freedoms even if it is uncomfortable.  In Communist China right now, if you dont have a green bar code on your phone you don't get in to the store.  Is that what we want here?  100% government control for "safety"?

[NUance]

DABO: 'Zero doubt' NCAA football season will start on time."   LINK  

 

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There you have it, folks.   

 

[BaytownHusker]

16 hours ago, gorp512 said:

I'm sure there are others on this board not in NE. Is anyone else in a hotspot with people still ignoring social distancing? 

 

Im here right outside of Houston. We are on a sheltor in place some what.  Its rough here but not as bad as others.

[BaytownHusker]

16 hours ago, gorp512 said:

I'm sure there are others on this board not in NE. Is anyone else in a hotspot with people still ignoring social distancing? 

 

Im here right outside of Houston. We are on a sheltor in place some what.  Its rough here but not as bad as others.

[knapplc]

 

[The Dude]

18 hours ago, lo country said:

MLB is talking about starting up in May IIRC.  Play all the games in AZ.  There is like 10-11 fields within 50 miles of each other.  no families, no fans and the teams and staff stay in hotels.  Only allowed to travel to and from games.....

 So business as usual for MLB.

[I am I]

What about the conditioning level of the players? I’m assuming most players are finding ways to work out and stuff. But nutrition, boredom, overseeing workouts, flexibility, injuries, etc...

 

will they be in game shape? Know the playbook, etc. if, and I voted no season happening, they get on field it’s going to some sloppy a$$ football with potentially a lot of injuries. 

[runningblind]

13 minutes ago, I am I said:

What about the conditioning level of the players? I’m assuming most players are finding ways to work out and stuff. But nutrition, boredom, overseeing workouts, flexibility, injuries, etc...

 

will they be in game shape? Know the playbook, etc. if, and I voted no season happening, they get on field it’s going to some sloppy a$$ football with potentially a lot of injuries. 

How is that different?

 

[Gorillahawk]

On 4/7/2020 at 10:10 PM, runningblind said:

They're not taking orders so their employees don't have to work right now....Just like everyone else.

That very well may be, I just know what our rep that we go through said 3 weeks ago 

[Red Five]

 

[gossamorharpy]

I voted no season, unless we somehow find a vaccine in the next few months which experts seem to indicate is very unlikely.

 

I don't think the no fans and games still played is a realistic scenario for a few reasons:

• Fan/Player Wise:  The vast majority would rather delay to return to normalcy instead of playing games in an empty stadium simply for the atmosphere affect.  Will I still tune in to watch husker football in a quiet empty stadium?  Sure, but I don't really know if I would really be as interested without the fan element and impact that has for big games, road games, etc.  So much of what makes college football great is the off the field aspects that are so unique to just college football.  It seems like coaches and players would rather push the season back to hopefully maintain this as opposed to sticking to the current schedule and playing in an empty stadium.
• How to handle player health:  All it takes is 1 confirmed case and that shuts down a team.  You shut down a team, that throws a wrench in the process for every single team on the schedule and within that conference.  You talk about hot spots around the country: how do we handle a scenario where half the country can't do anything while the other half could be in the clear?  You cant.  
• Recruiting Impact:  Similar to above- How do they handle recruiting?  You either have to shut it down for all or keep it open for all.  If states are under lockdown and prevents coaches from leaving or high schoolers from being recruited, that will create an inherently unfair advantage for schools who may be able to update a little more normal than others. 
• $$$ Talks- No fans in games=no game day revenue.  No game day revenue= major impact on local economy.  Downturn in live events=loss in merchandise revenue.  A degraded product= lost revenue for media platforms who fund a very large part of revenue for P5 conferences.  Perhaps media outlets such as ESPN stand to increase revenue on the premise that more people are at home and will be watching these no fan games, more ad revenue, viewers etc.... But what happens to that ad revenue if they have to shut the season down half way through and the largest $$$ producing evetns (playoffs, conf title games, champ game) arent played?  All of a sudden that is a hugeeeee chunk of revenue that is gone- revenue that ADs leverage when factoring in costs and expenses for the football program and great athletic department/university as a whole.

 

I want football back more than anything else.  But not at the expense of the greater public health.  If its looking like no fans are allowed due to health reasons, I'm not sure how you can then say its ok to have 160 football players on a field together in close contact with one another.

[runningblind]

20 minutes ago, gossamorharpy said:

I voted no season, unless we somehow find a vaccine in the next few months which experts seem to indicate is very unlikely.

 

I don't think the no fans and games still played is a realistic scenario for a few reasons:

• Fan/Player Wise:  The vast majority would rather delay to return to normalcy instead of playing games in an empty stadium simply for the atmosphere affect.  Will I still tune in to watch husker football in a quiet empty stadium?  Sure, but I don't really know if I would really be as interested without the fan element and impact that has for big games, road games, etc.  So much of what makes college football great is the off the field aspects that are so unique to just college football.  It seems like coaches and players would rather push the season back to hopefully maintain this as opposed to sticking to the current schedule and playing in an empty stadium.
• How to handle player health:  All it takes is 1 confirmed case and that shuts down a team.  You shut down a team, that throws a wrench in the process for every single team on the schedule and within that conference.  You talk about hot spots around the country: how do we handle a scenario where half the country can't do anything while the other half could be in the clear?  You cant.  
• Recruiting Impact:  Similar to above- How do they handle recruiting?  You either have to shut it down for all or keep it open for all.  If states are under lockdown and prevents coaches from leaving or high schoolers from being recruited, that will create an inherently unfair advantage for schools who may be able to update a little more normal than others. 
• $$$ Talks- No fans in games=no game day revenue.  No game day revenue= major impact on local economy.  Downturn in live events=loss in merchandise revenue.  A degraded product= lost revenue for media platforms who fund a very large part of revenue for P5 conferences.  Perhaps media outlets such as ESPN stand to increase revenue on the premise that more people are at home and will be watching these no fan games, more ad revenue, viewers etc.... But what happens to that ad revenue if they have to shut the season down half way through and the largest $$$ producing evetns (playoffs, conf title games, champ game) arent played?  All of a sudden that is a hugeeeee chunk of revenue that is gone- revenue that ADs leverage when factoring in costs and expenses for the football program and great athletic department/university as a whole.

 

I want football back more than anything else.  But not at the expense of the greater public health.  If its looking like no fans are allowed due to health reasons, I'm not sure how you can then say its ok to have 160 football players on a field together in close contact with one another.

I understand what you are trying to say, but #1 & 4 don't really hold water in my eyes. Yes everyone wants things back to normal but when we're talking something (games with no fans) or nothing at all, I guarantee you 90% of people would want to watch a game with no fans versus waiting until 2021 for a normal season.  You answered that question yourself by saying you'd watch.  We are talking about a no fan season AND a normal 2021 season,  versus only waiting for 2021 with nothing for 2020. Same goes for the money.  Get TV and conference payouts still or nothing? That isn't even a question.

 

#2 &#3 are harder,  but you could test the whole teams and keep them together as much as possible.  Sure there might be issues.   Recruiting simply has to have equal rules for all schools during this time.

[gossamorharpy]

25 minutes ago, runningblind said:

I understand what you are trying to say, but #1 & 4 don't really hold water in my eyes. Yes everyone wants things back to normal but when we're talking something (games with no fans) or nothing at all, I guarantee you 90% of people would want to watch a game with no fans versus waiting until 2021 for a normal season.  Same goes for the money.  Get TV and conference payouts still or nothing? That isn't even a question.

 

#2 &#3 are harder,  but you could test the whole teams and keep them together as much as possible.  Sure there might be issues.   Recruiting simply has to have equal rules for all schools during this time.

I don't know if we can automatically assume conferences and schools are still going to get pay outs or close to full pay outs as expected.  NBA and MLB commissioners and Players Association leaders have all commented on the direct cut they are all going to have to take due to significantly less revenue from media due to no games and a change in the process.  Before coronavirus, there was already a pretty large disparity between the 20 or so college programs that turn a profit and those that are losing money.  

 

You take away guaranteed money P5 conf teams get on top of that?  Not so sure ADs will automatically be able to act business as usual if the funds arent there in the same capacity.

 

While it might be easy to just assume TV revenue can make up for it, I don't necessarily know thats the case.  Nebraska is one of the few programs to turn a profit and is in an even smaller group that can fund the AD department without state/university funds.

 

When you consider the fact that the AD department had an 8 mil surplus under normal conditions and only 3 sports actually turned a profit (football, m bball and volleyball); I don't know how you can assume there isn't a monetary factor in play here when you're removing 90k fans paying good money 8 saturdays a year and the sponsorship money that also comes in from companies that want to place their logo and company name on various marketing avenues on gameday.  When you remove football which is, by far, the largest revenue driver, you find yourself which much harder business centric questions in a world where not everyone can get a free lunch.

 

https://www.omaha.com/sports/college/huskers/blogs/nebraska-top-25-nationally-but-middle-of-big-ten-in-athletic-department-revenues/article_a99caf1a-211c-57f9-9759-32c82dcbd328.html

 

NU’s revenues of $120,205,090 ranked seventh in the Big Ten. Its expenses — $112,571,632 — ranked 24th nationally and eighth in the league. Iowa’s revenues ($130,681,467) and expenses ($128,869,211) ranked 18th and 15th nationally, respectively.

 

https://nebraska.rivals.com/news/big-red-business-nebraska-s-financial-performance-paint-it-black

[runningblind]

1 hour ago, gossamorharpy said:

I don't know if we can automatically assume conferences and schools are still going to get pay outs or close to full pay outs as expected.  NBA and MLB commissioners and Players Association leaders have all commented on the direct cut they are all going to have to take due to significantly less revenue from media due to no games and a change in the process.  Before coronavirus, there was already a pretty large disparity between the 20 or so college programs that turn a profit and those that are losing money.  

 

You take away guaranteed money P5 conf teams get on top of that?  Not so sure ADs will automatically be able to act business as usual if the funds arent there in the same capacity.

 

While it might be easy to just assume TV revenue can make up for it, I don't necessarily know thats the case.  Nebraska is one of the few programs to turn a profit and is in an even smaller group that can fund the AD department without state/university funds.

 

When you consider the fact that the AD department had an 8 mil surplus under normal conditions and only 3 sports actually turned a profit (football, m bball and volleyball); I don't know how you can assume there isn't a monetary factor in play here when you're removing 90k fans paying good money 8 saturdays a year and the sponsorship money that also comes in from companies that want to place their logo and company name on various marketing avenues on gameday.  When you remove football which is, by far, the largest revenue driver, you find yourself which much harder business centric questions in a world where not everyone can get a free lunch.

 

https://www.omaha.com/sports/college/huskers/blogs/nebraska-top-25-nationally-but-middle-of-big-ten-in-athletic-department-revenues/article_a99caf1a-211c-57f9-9759-32c82dcbd328.html

 

NU’s revenues of $120,205,090 ranked seventh in the Big Ten. Its expenses — $112,571,632 — ranked 24th nationally and eighth in the league. Iowa’s revenues ($130,681,467) and expenses ($128,869,211) ranked 18th and 15th nationally, respectively.

 

https://nebraska.rivals.com/news/big-red-business-nebraska-s-financial-performance-paint-it-black

I think you misunderstand me. I agree there is a monetary factor here, I am simply saying schools would want any revenue possible during this time versus none at all.  I get ticket sales, concessions etc are lost but how much could a glorified scrimmage put on TV cost, assuming the TV networks and conferences have a vested interest in helping foot the bill? Whatever TV and conference money they'd get for that would have to still be net income.  These small schools also depend on the fees they get from big schools. Even if they're reduced because of no fans, some money is better than no money.  That is what I am saying.

 

Everyone would be hurt by this, but everyone should, in theory, be hurt LESS by playing with no fans.  If you're right about conferences and TV not paying then it doesn't make sense.  I can't imagine they wouldn't be interested if playing in some capacity is at all possible and they stand to make some sort of monetary gain from it.