Will There Be a 2020 Football Season?

[HS_Coach_C]

Good thread on "herd immunity" from a strictly numbers standpoint. This is from the Mississippi governor and just based on Mississippi, but it applies everywhere.

 

I do think one of the biggest mistakes from the beginning was the misinformation about masks. At the end of February the surgeon general said masks don't help at all and it wasn't until the beginning of April until the CDC said they "may help". Link  The WHO didn't recommend them until June Link. This has hurt their credibility and now people don't want to listen.

 

Masks are our best option right now and herd immunity is a terrible plan.

[Toe]

@HS_Coach_C Well I'll be damned, something halfway sensible from a southern state?

[Toe]

2 hours ago, krc1995 said:

Is the phased reopening criteria the same for every state? Our state high school athletics were delayed today until the state can finish phase 3. We can’t get out of phase 2. 

 

No, the criteria are different in different states. And a big part of what got us to where we are today is that a lot of states reopened before they'd even met their own criteria. And a lot of what happened with states reopening seems to amount to peer pressure: a few states rushed to reopen early, and then all the other governors were like 'OK, I guess we're doing this now.' Most states reopened around mid-May, but even just holding off until early June would've made a huge difference. And then a lot of states' phase 2 regulations were too lax: too much allowed to reopen, no mask requirements, etc.

[Branno]

2 hours ago, krc1995 said:

Is the phased reopening criteria the same for every state? Our state high school athletics were delayed today until the state can finish phase 3. We can’t get out of phase 2. 

We’re in phase 4 now thanks to the party in power in Texas re-opening the state even though infections were increasing. As our Lt gov says, the economy is more important than actual human lives. 

[knapplc]

1 hour ago, HS_Coach_C said:

I do think one of the biggest mistakes from the beginning was the misinformation about masks. At the end of February the surgeon general said masks don't help at all and it wasn't until the beginning of April until the CDC said they "may help". Link  The WHO didn't recommend them until June Link. This has hurt their credibility and now people don't want to listen.

 

Masks are our best option right now and herd immunity is a terrible plan.

 

The "misinformation about masks" was based on the best data at the time, and that included fears that our healthcare professionals - who truly need the masks - would run out, because there weren't enough in the national stockpile.

 

Based on learned data, those same people rethought their statements, and realized masks were our best option. But, unfortunately, people who wanted to politicize this pandemic (not at all calling you out here) jumped on that first statement as false and decided not to believe anything else they said, because their later statements (based on better data) countermanded those initial statements.

 

You are 100% correct that masks are our best option, and that herd immunity is (and has always been) a terrible plan. Herd immunity has, built in, a huge death toll. Everyone seems to be OK with that to get to football in the Fall, but all of those folks OK with the herd immunity death toll presume none of their loved ones are going to pay the price for that herd immunity.

 

I guarantee not one person on this site will be fine with herd immunity if it costs them their son, daughter, wife, husband, father or mother.  Sadly, it's only then that some here will begin to understand that herd immunity was never, ever the best option, just the laziest option, and that the people who have been preaching herd immunity to them were selfish liars the whole time.

 

And those selfish liars are demanding that everyone around them wear masks, guaranteed.

[WyoHusker56]

1 hour ago, HS_Coach_C said:

Good thread on "herd immunity" from a strictly numbers standpoint. This is from the Mississippi governor and just based on Mississippi, but it applies everywhere.

 

I do think one of the biggest mistakes from the beginning was the misinformation about masks. At the end of February the surgeon general said masks don't help at all and it wasn't until the beginning of April until the CDC said they "may help". Link  The WHO didn't recommend them until June Link. This has hurt their credibility and now people don't want to listen.

 

Masks are our best option right now and herd immunity is a terrible plan.

 

Taking his extremely good logic and applying it to the country as a whole would look like this. We'd need 128 million cases to hit 40%, experts say twice that. We'd need to hit 60,000 cases, roughly the single day high, for 2,142 days or about 5 years, 9 months. That also assumes that you can't catch it a second time which doesn't appear to be the case currently. 

 

For those that say the number of cases I way higher consider this. The highest estimates are 20,000,000 Americans have has the virus. If you assume the virus has been here for 6 months that's 111,000 cases per day. At that rate, it'd take 2 years and 9 months more to reach 40% of the population.

 

Everyone ok with no football for 3 years? Or we could all try wearing masks to see if it slows the spread enough that we can live our lives and wait for treatments and vaccines. 

[Cdog923]

 

[Cdog923]

 

[FrantzHardySwag]

20 minutes ago, Cdog923 said:

 

I'm still not sure what the argument against masks is. 

[Bledred]

This is all starting to look and feel like a gigantic hope crushing exercise.  

[southernoregonhusker]

3 hours ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

I'm still not sure what the argument against masks is. 

From those I've spoken to, it's basically "I don't wanna."  

[swmohusker]

3 hours ago, southernoregonhusker said:

From those I've spoken to, it's basically "I don't wanna."  

Yep.  It is unreal.  It goes against their personal freedom.  Yet they are still upset the virus is handicapping their lives.   They just don’t see the connection on how they can impact the situation.  Hey enjoy your personal Non

mask wearing freedoms whenever states are going to have to start locking down again.  

[Atbone95]

9 hours ago, WyoHusker56 said:

 

Taking his extremely good logic and applying it to the country as a whole would look like this. We'd need 128 million cases to hit 40%, experts say twice that. We'd need to hit 60,000 cases, roughly the single day high, for 2,142 days or about 5 years, 9 months. That also assumes that you can't catch it a second time which doesn't appear to be the case currently. 

 

For those that say the number of cases I way higher consider this. The highest estimates are 20,000,000 Americans have has the virus. If you assume the virus has been here for 6 months that's 111,000 cases per day. At that rate, it'd take 2 years and 9 months more to reach 40% of the population.

 

Everyone ok with no football for 3 years? Or we could all try wearing masks to see if it slows the spread enough that we can live our lives and wait for treatments and vaccines. 

I'm going to play devil's advocate for a second.

 

The number of cases are way higher - Former FDA head Dr. Scott Gottlieb estimates we're diagnosing 1 in 10 to 1 in 12 cases right now. At 58k positive tests yesterday, we should estimate (lower end) that ~580k people would have tested positive if everyone went to get tested and we had the capacity. The Mississippi governor is a math guy but he completely left this part off of his equation. 

 

On your comment -  "The highest estimates are 20,000,000 Americans have has the virus. If you assume the virus has been here for 6 months that's 111,000 cases per day. At that rate..." This isn't accurate or a good way to look at it. It completely negates the exponential growth of a virus, this hasn't been and never will be a linear growth. That's why we're so worried about overwhelming hospitals too quickly. 

 

If 40% (128 million) is your target, and we've already infected ~20 million, and we're infecting conservatively 500k people per day, we're actually not far off (about 200 days). This is all to say we're going to continue infecting 500k people a day because we are refusing to wear masks. We should wear masks or we'll be stuck at this very high plateau of infection. It's pretty simple.

 

[Atbone95]

People die. It is a fact of life. I'm not sure if it is social media (I think it is) or what the cause might be, but we have become a society terrified of illness. Not just death, people are scared of being sick. And that's not a healthy way to live. Has medicine advanced too far that we're so entitled we feel shouldn't ever be exposed to a runny nose? 

[teachercd]

4 hours ago, southernoregonhusker said:

From those I've spoken to, it's basically "I don't wanna."  

Yeah, for most part that is what it is.  I know for some people it is about politics but that is a small %...just like usual.  The crazies make up a small % of things like this.  Like the rioters were a small % of the protesters but of course they got the most coverage.

 

Then you have the people that think it is all about politics when it clearly is not.  Hell we hardly get 50% of the voting population to even go vote yet all of a sudden everyone thinks it is a political issue.

 

Like you said...it is a "I don't wanna" issue for most.  

 

I don't know one single person that is not wearing a mask because of politics. In fact I know a few people with the "Well, if I get it...it was god's plan" attitude.  But no one that is making a political statement.