Will There Be a 2020 Football Season?

[knapplc]

15 minutes ago, Atbone95 said:

People die. It is a fact of life. I'm not sure if it is social media (I think it is) or what the cause might be, but we have become a society terrified of illness. Not just death, people are scared of being sick. And that's not a healthy way to live. Has medicine advanced too far that we're so entitled we feel shouldn't ever be exposed to a runny nose? 

 

So you're willing to die so we can have football? That is a very noble sacrifice.

[Waldo]

19 minutes ago, Atbone95 said:

I'm going to play devil's advocate for a second.

 

The number of cases are way higher - Former FDA head Dr. Scott Gottlieb estimates we're diagnosing 1 in 10 to 1 in 12 cases right now. At 58k positive tests yesterday, we should estimate (lower end) that ~580k people would have tested positive if everyone went to get tested and we had the capacity. The Mississippi governor is a math guy but he completely left this part off of his equation. 

 

On your comment -  "The highest estimates are 20,000,000 Americans have has the virus. If you assume the virus has been here for 6 months that's 111,000 cases per day. At that rate..." This isn't accurate or a good way to look at it. It completely negates the exponential growth of a virus, this hasn't been and never will be a linear growth. That's why we're so worried about overwhelming hospitals too quickly. 

 

If 40% (128 million) is your target, and we've already infected ~20 million, and we're infecting conservatively 500k people per day, we're actually not far off (about 200 days). This is all to say we're going to continue infecting 500k people a day because we are refusing to wear masks. We should wear masks or we'll be stuck at this very high plateau of infection. It's pretty simple.

 

“Conservatively” while using the highest diagnosis rate I’ve seen. If we’re truly at the 500k a day infection rate, then that honestly takes away from the seriousness of the virus imo. 
 

Here in Phoenix, mask wearing is finally being taken seriously. Hopefully when rates go down, we learned our lesson and keep them on while out and about. 

[krc1995]

9 minutes ago, Waldo said:

“Conservatively” while using the highest diagnosis rate I’ve seen. If we’re truly at the 500k a day infection rate, then that honestly takes away from the seriousness of the virus imo. 
 

Here in Phoenix, mask wearing is finally being taken seriously. Hopefully when rates go down, we learned our lesson and keep them on while out and about. 

Is Phoenix mandated to wear masks?  We(Louisiana) were mandated yesterday to wear masks. I saw 100% compliance. I was in San Antonio 3 weeks ago, they had a no masks, no dining in, no bars, and no cash mandate. I think their numbers are still going up. I guess next week, week 4 will be the tell take week for them- although Sea World, Schlitterbahn, minor league park were all still open. 

 

[Waldo]

7 minutes ago, krc1995 said:

Is Phoenix mandated to wear masks?  We(Louisiana) were mandated yesterday to wear masks. I saw 100% compliance. I was in San Antonio 3 weeks ago, they had a no masks, no dining in, no bars, and no cash mandate. I think their numbers are still going up. I guess next week, week 4 will be the tell take week for them- although Sea World, Schlitterbahn, minor league park were all still open. 

 

Yes. Most places won’t serve/check you out if you’re not masked up. It went from 50 percent in the grocery store to 95-100% after the spike and mandate. 

[Atbone95]

1 hour ago, knapplc said:

 

So you're willing to die so we can have football? That is a very noble sacrifice.

No, but I appreciate the straw man. 

 

I said masks are important. I said COVID is serious. I don't understand where we took a fork in the road as a society and became terrified of illness. 

[RedDenver]

1 hour ago, Atbone95 said:

People die. It is a fact of life. I'm not sure if it is social media (I think it is) or what the cause might be, but we have become a society terrified of illness. Not just death, people are scared of being sick. And that's not a healthy way to live. Has medicine advanced too far that we're so entitled we feel shouldn't ever be exposed to a runny nose? 

Could also be fear of the very real threat of financial ruin.

 

[WyoHusker56]

1 hour ago, Atbone95 said:

I'm going to play devil's advocate for a second.

 

The number of cases are way higher - Former FDA head Dr. Scott Gottlieb estimates we're diagnosing 1 in 10 to 1 in 12 cases right now. At 58k positive tests yesterday, we should estimate (lower end) that ~580k people would have tested positive if everyone went to get tested and we had the capacity. The Mississippi governor is a math guy but he completely left this part off of his equation. 

 

On your comment -  "The highest estimates are 20,000,000 Americans have has the virus. If you assume the virus has been here for 6 months that's 111,000 cases per day. At that rate..." This isn't accurate or a good way to look at it. It completely negates the exponential growth of a virus, this hasn't been and never will be a linear growth. That's why we're so worried about overwhelming hospitals too quickly. 

 

If 40% (128 million) is your target, and we've already infected ~20 million, and we're infecting conservatively 500k people per day, we're actually not far off (about 200 days). This is all to say we're going to continue infecting 500k people a day because we are refusing to wear masks. We should wear masks or we'll be stuck at this very high plateau of infection. It's pretty simple.

 

 

If those numbers are correct then yes we'd hit the number infected much sooner. The numbers I used would be conservative though, the numbers you used are the most aggressive I've seen. So, it's likely somewhere between the two which still leaves us likely a year or more away from hitting 40%. However, not a single virologists I've seen thinks 40% gets us to herd immunity most are 70-80% and it could be even higher depending on how contagious the virus actually is.

 

Regardless of the numbers though we agree on the most important part, wear a stupid mask it isn't hard and we may actually get a football season. If we continue at our current pace and then we add a flu/cold season on top of that things are going to get really awful.

[Atbone95]

44 minutes ago, Waldo said:

“Conservatively” while using the highest diagnosis rate I’ve seen. If we’re truly at the 500k a day infection rate, then that honestly takes away from the seriousness of the virus imo. 
 

Here in Phoenix, mask wearing is finally being taken seriously. Hopefully when rates go down, we learned our lesson and keep them on while out and about. 

I mean, I've been in here multiple times touting following Dr. Gottlieb - https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD?lang=en. I threw out newspapers and media outlets, I rely on his comments and national/local gov't (including CDC) announcements. He says the CDC agrees on the diagnosis rate in a recent interview. 

 

That's his point. He takes the virus very seriously, but is pro-opening schools this fall. 

[Decoy73]

9 minutes ago, Atbone95 said:

I don't understand where we took a fork in the road as a society and became terrified of illness. 

It’s unique from other infectious disease in that (I think) it’s the unknown about COVID-19 that is worrisome for many—myself included.   Long term effects?   Will a vaccine be effective in providing long lasting immunity?  Sequelae of repeat infections?  Still much to learn.   It may turn out to be not as bad as some think or there could be bad long term effects we haven’t seen yet.  

[DevoHusker]

1 hour ago, Waldo said:

“Conservatively” while using the highest diagnosis rate I’ve seen. If we’re truly at the 500k a day infection rate, then that honestly takes away from the seriousness of the virus imo. 
 

Here in Phoenix, mask wearing is finally being taken seriously. Hopefully when rates go down, we learned our lesson and keep them on while out and about. 

What are the reports from the hospitals Waldo? I am supposed to travel to the Valley next week? Lots of cases, and finally some compliance on masks...anything else you have noticed?

[teachercd]

Mask wearing in Omaha (from what I see) is like...50/50.  Depending on where you are at.  

[Atbone95]

4 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Mask wearing in Omaha (from what I see) is like...50/50.  Depending on where you are at.  

I'd say that's about right for Lincoln as well. 

[Cdog923]

1 hour ago, Atbone95 said:

No, but I appreciate the straw man. 

 

I said masks are important. I said COVID is serious. I don't understand where we took a fork in the road as a society and became terrified of illness. 

 

You say "Terrified of illness"

 

I say "not taking a pandemic seriously enough". 

[Guy Chamberlin]

16 hours ago, Cdog923 said:

 

Already got you covered, my man: 

 

 

 

I'll be honest: I started watching that game and I couldn't stop. 

 

Thanks CDog. This is just crazy enough to work.

[Landlord]

2 hours ago, Atbone95 said:

The number of cases are way higher - Former FDA head Dr. Scott Gottlieb estimates we're diagnosing 1 in 10 to 1 in 12 cases right now. At 58k positive tests yesterday, we should estimate (lower end) that ~580k people would have tested positive if everyone went to get tested and we had the capacity. The Mississippi governor is a math guy but he completely left this part off of his equation. 

 

 

That's because they miss the point, which is even with vague estimates of the true infection, herd immunity is not realistic or humane or realistically attainable. You said it'd take 200 days to reach 120 mil, but even that is still only half of what they're saying it would take to reach herd immunity. But even in half the time to reach half the inflection point to "solve" the problem, how many people dead?