Will There Be a 2020 Football Season?

[Undone]

3 minutes ago, knapplc said:

Ugh. Year to year-and-a-half.

 

And I just want to put this out there for those who haven't ever studied this (and that is probably not you, knapp): The CDC reports flu vaccine efficacy rates of roughly 50%. About four years ago it was actually south of 30% because the right strain wasn't taken into wide enough account that year.

 

This means that for people who got the flu vaccine and then also contracted the flu, 50% or greater did wind up "getting the flu" (showed flu symptoms).

 

We don't know yet exactly how many COVID strains there are yet. About a month ago I read a report of a study that indicates there are already over 40. Again: This is a novel virus. There is so much we don't know yet.

[knapplc]

4 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

And I just want to put this out there for those who haven't ever studied this (and that is probably not you, knapp): The CDC reports flu vaccine efficacy rates of roughly 50%. About four years ago it was actually south of 30% because the right strain wasn't taken into wide enough account that year.

 

This means that for people who got the flu vaccine and then also contracted the flu, 50% or greater did wind up "getting the flu" (showed flu symptoms).

 

We don't know yet exactly how many COVID strains there are yet. About a month ago I read a report of a study that indicates there are already over 40. Again: This is a novel virus. There is so much we don't know yet.

 

I don't like it.

[Branno]

Just now, Undone said:

 

Phew. That was a close one.

 

I was explaining to Hilltop the overarching concept in a vacuum. I am very much aware of the 'lagging indicator' factor, yeah.

Death rate (IFR) figures have steadily decreased over the last two months. If they start climbing back, we'll analyze that phenomenon if & when it occurs.

It’s not if, but when. There has already been an increase in deaths over the last week.

 

The whole “death rates are dropping argument” is made in bad faith to push a specific viewpoint. That anyone who is trying to fight COVID is scared for no reason and that we should “get back to normal”.

 

Its dangerous to entertain that argument. 

[knapplc]

2 minutes ago, Branno said:

The whole “death rates are dropping argument” is made in bad faith to push a specific viewpoint.

 

I feel that's true of some people, maybe even some people in this thread, but I don't get the impression @Atbone95 or @Hilltop are presenting this, or similar, arguments in bad faith. I think they just want football and are looking for glimmers of hope.

[Branno]

3 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

I feel that's true of some people, maybe even some people in this thread, but I don't get the impression @Atbone95 or @Hilltop are presenting this, or similar, arguments in bad faith. I think they just want football and are looking for glimmers of hope.

I want to make it clear, I’m not accusing them of acting in bad faith. I hope that’s not the case at least. 
 

Trying to avoid being political.

[Mavric]

27 minutes ago, knapplc said:

Ugh. Year to year-and-a-half.

 

 

 

I have been told often and in no uncertain terms that Herd. Immunity. Doesn't. Work.

[Undone]

24 minutes ago, Branno said:

The whole “death rates are dropping argument” is made in bad faith to push a specific viewpoint. That anyone who is trying to fight COVID is scared for no reason and that we should “get back to normal”.

 

Its dangerous to entertain that argument. 

I acknowledge what you're saying and I can see why you'd say that, given how politically charged and binary we are about your our politics.

But I am setting the record straight that what you described above does not represent what I'm doing. I have a good grasp on statistical analysis and I am just trying to make sense of what rote data means.

*Edit: "our" not "your"

[knapplc]

Just now, Mavric said:

 

I have been told often and in no uncertain terms that Herd. Immunity. Doesn't. Work.

 

I think you're quite well aware of the truth of that argument.

[Atbone95]

10 minutes ago, Branno said:

I want to make it clear, I’m not accusing them of acting in bad faith. I hope that’s not the case at least. 
 

Trying to avoid being political.

I could assume the same (hopefully wrongly) in the other direction, of a desire to push doom and gloom for the sake of doing so. Just the way the world works right now. 

 

I never pushed a declining death rate. I came to say that medical experts, much more qualified than anyone posting here, acknowledge we're diagnosing a small fraction of actual cases at this point and we're mass infecting because people won't wear a mask. Wear a mask. 

 

We're playing football in parts of this country this fall. I hope some of the posters here are going to be able to live with the horror of that happening in their country (/s). 

[Mavric]

Just now, knapplc said:

I think you're quite well aware of the truth of that argument.

 

Apparently not.  But it appears that it does work.  

[knapplc]

Just now, Mavric said:

 

Apparently not.  But it appears that it does work.  

 

Does it? Do we know?

[Atbone95]

On the flip side of the vaccine argument (more stupid Americans) - 43% of US Americans get a flu vaccine. Vaccines don't work if the same people who are stupid enough not to wear a mask don't get a shot. 

 

We will see more death. But is that the point? It isn't about total deaths, it is about death for you and your immediate family. Deaths can go up as long as you have the option for a vaccine that makes you feel safe. What will the conversations look like when that happens? 

[Mavric]

Just now, knapplc said:

Does it? Do we know?

 

The expert just said so so I guess yes.  

[Waldo]

51 minutes ago, Branno said:

It’s not dropping. Deaths rates trail infection rates. We’re looking at death rates from infections 3 weeks ago not today. 
 

Deaths will spike here in about 2 weeks.

Why do New York and New Jersey have death rates 7-8 times higher than Florida, but both states have younger populations? 

[Undone]

7 minutes ago, Atbone95 said:

Vaccines don't work if the same people who are stupid enough not to wear a mask don't get a shot.

 

This is truly scientifically false. Read what I posted above about the CDC's data on flu vaccine efficacy rates.

 

Your statement is unequivocally false. Part of the reason for this is "shedding," the process by which someone who has been recently vaccinated becomes contagious and spreads the flu to others.

 

When you combine that with the fact that the vaccine has no more than a 50% efficacy rate, what this means is that you can't entirely eradicate the flu via vaccines. You can greatly limit it, but you can't eliminate it. This is due to strain mutation and then the challenge of vaccinating for all strains.

 

You can still reach herd immunity, though. But I think people don't even understand what the definition of herd immunity is. It doesn't mean that once you reach it that the illness is eradicated. It just means that there's sufficient immunity such that the herd can't be killed off - made extinct - and that a drastically smaller amount of infections occur.

I've seen so many people on social media using the phrase as if the definition means "the illness is eradicated."