Will There Be a 2020 Football Season?

[RedSavage]

1 hour ago, Saunders said:

 

 

The Marlins are trash. And you couldn't pay me to go to Miami.

Pretty sure you could catch somethin way worse than the 'Rona from that team

[Huskers93-97]

One thing to consider. I have not researched this. But I remember reading something somewhere that a large majority of our statistics have come from a handful of cities. The entire United States is not failing at COVID. Nebraska is probably on par with the better countries in the world. 

[Guy Chamberlin]

31 minutes ago, GBRFAN said:

Totally agree with US taking more risk then Austrailia - then again US was born on risk so wouldn't it be assumed.  This virus is worse then the flu but 2 years from now i'm confident that the numbers will show that it wasn't 5x the flu.  The severe sickness and death rate has declined drastically and will continue - not sure I can say the same about the media.

 

I think we'll look back and realize the scientists were largely correct on this point --- COVID came in 5x more deadly than the flu and far more communicable, and dead bodies were soon being stacked up in refrigerator trucks and nursing home storage closets. Drastic measures and highly accelerated medical research began to mitigate the risk around the world. Relaxing public safety standards immediately caused a spike in infections, and although per capita fatalities didn't jump at the same rate it was a reminder we were still fighting a pandemic.

 

If it doesn't get worse it doesn't mean COVID was no big deal. It means that the global response worked. The media will always dramatize a story, but they've basically reported the available facts, along with every flavor of speculation. In fairness, it's the biggest story of our lifetime. So far. 

 

FWIW....the U.S. was born on risk. Australia was born as a prison colony. If it's a contest of badass mavericks who mistrust authority, don't assume Americas have the edge over Aussies.  

[suh_fan93]

 

[Loebarth]

16 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

If it doesn't get worse it doesn't mean COVID was no big deal. It means that the global response worked. The media will always dramatize a story, but they've basically reported the available facts, along with every flavor of speculation. In fairness, it's the biggest story of our lifetime. So far. 

 

 

That's a HUGE reach considering WW2 survivors are still alive not to mention the Korean & Vietnam wars. The implantation of the UN, the establishment of Israel, the Martin Luther King era and how he's effected life today with the end of segregation. (150 years to late IMO but his courage remains unmatched) What about 911 and millions of lives lost since?

 

Biggest story of our lifetime so far? I most certainly think not.. it's not even the biggest story currently. Ask those in Syria or Iraq or Yemen or Iran or Libya if covid is the biggest story? Biggest story of our lifetime, just a really bad sentence as it is minuscule in comparison with the really big stories!

[Guy Chamberlin]

10 minutes ago, Huskers93-97 said:

One thing to consider. I have not researched this. But I remember reading something somewhere that a large majority of our statistics have come from a handful of cities. The entire United States is not failing at COVID. Nebraska is probably on par with the better countries in the world. 

 

Should be no surprise that highly packed population centers with lots of international travelers would be more susceptible to the initial spread of COVID. But now New York City is in a better place than Montgomery, Alabama. Rural populations are generally doing well and have been able to enjoy fewer restrictions. The notable exceptions are the meat-packing plants, ag harvesting hotspots, and fulfillment centers where low-wage workers are expected to keep the economy humming. 

 

The better countries in the world handled this better than the United States. We lead the world in almost every negative category. Our COVID caseload is now bigger than ever. 39 states have shown an increase in COVID cases in the last two weeks -- that's most of the country.

 

Nebraska is lucky and I can see how the low impact there would have you wondering what all the fuss is about. 

[Nebfanatic]

2 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Should be no surprise that highly packed population centers with lots of international travelers would be more susceptible to the initial spread of COVID. But now New York City is in a better place than Montgomery, Alabama. Rural populations are generally doing well and have been able to enjoy fewer restrictions. The notable exceptions are the meat-packing plants, ag harvesting hotspots, and fulfillment centers where low-wage workers are expected to keep the economy humming. 

 

The better countries in the world handled this better than the United States. We lead the world in almost every negative category. Our COVID caseload is now bigger than ever. 39 states have shown an increase in COVID cases in the last two weeks -- that's most of the country.

 

Nebraska is lucky and I can see how the low impact there would have you wondering what all the fuss is about. 

the thing with more rural communities is it gets there eventually and usually ends up being more devastating because while population density may be lower, contact with every person in town is much higher. The community aspect of rural areas that are needed for those areas to thrive make those areas especially susceptible to COVID. Now, they won't produce large numbers because there aren't large numbers there to begin with. But that doesn't mean the communities are less impacted 

[knapplc]

4 minutes ago, Loebarth said:

 

That's a HUGE reach considering WW2 survivors are still alive not to mention the Korean & Vietnam wars. The implantation of the UN, the establishment of Israel, the Martin Luther King era and how he's effected life today with the end of segregation. (150 years to late IMO but his courage remains unmatched) What about 911 and millions of lives lost since?

 

Biggest story of our lifetime so far? I most certainly think not.. it's not even the biggest story currently. Ask those in Syria or Iraq or Yemen or Iran or Libya if covid is the biggest story? Biggest story of our lifetime, just a really bad sentence as it is minuscule in comparison with the really big stories!

 

[Hilltop]

46 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

so what happens if we decide that won't happen, press forward, and then it does? That's the problem here. By the time you get to the scenario you would agree should cancel the season its already too late. 

All we know is going by the data that is available.  We can use Nebraska numbers and even go as far as to use ages 20-34.  There have been 8,000 confirmed positive cases in this age bracket to date.  If you use the lowest estimated multiplier, we have had at least 40,000 cases in this age bracket.  To date, 141 of those people have been hospitalized and 4 of them have died.  This gives us a hospitalization rate of .003 and a death rate of .0001.  Even if you don't add the multiplier that the vast majority of experts say is accurate, the hospitalization rate is .017 and the death rate is ,0005.  For this age class, the numbers indicate there is an extremely low likelihood the above scenario would happen.  

 

All of the above is using ages 20-34.  It is widely publicized that people in their early 20s fair much better than people even 10 years older.  The data suggests we are not placing these kids in a risky situation.  College football should be played this fall.

  https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ece0db09da4d4ca68252c3967aa1e9dd

 

[knapplc]

1 minute ago, Hilltop said:

All we know is going by the data that is available.  We can use Nebraska numbers and even go as far as to use ages 20-34.  There have been 8,000 confirmed positive cases in this age bracket to date.  If you use the lowest estimated multiplier, we have had at least 40,000 cases in this age bracket.  To date, 141 of those people have been hospitalized and 4 of them have died.  This gives us a hospitalization rate of .003 and a death rate of .0001.  Even if you don't add the multiplier that the vast majority of experts say is accurate, the hospitalization rate is .017 and the death rate is ,0005.  For this age class, the numbers indicate there is an extremely low likelihood the above scenario would happen.  

 

All of the above is using ages 20-34.  It is widely publicized that people in their early 20s fair much better than people even 10 years older.  The data suggests we are not placing these kids in a risky situation.  College football should be played this fall.

  https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ece0db09da4d4ca68252c3967aa1e9dd

 

 

 

[Hilltop]

3 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

 

Sounds serious... and very rare or there would be a lot more news covering other cases of it.  Give him a couple weeks and revisit it before calling it a long term concern.

[Nebfanatic]

Just now, Hilltop said:

Sounds serious... and very rare or there would be a lot more news covering other cases of it.  Give him a couple weeks and revisit it before calling it a long term concern.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/07/research-reveals-heart-complications-covid-19-patients

 

Its not rare. And if we look at data from MERS and SARS, the closest diseases we have to this one, we see that long term organ damage was done in 1/3rd of the patients. 

[Guy Chamberlin]

3 minutes ago, Loebarth said:

 

That's a HUGE reach considering WW2 survivors are still alive not to mention the Korean & Vietnam wars. The implantation of the UN, the establishment of Israel, the Martin Luther King era and how he's effected life today with the end of segregation. (150 years to late IMO but his courage remains unmatched) What about 911 and millions of lives lost since?

 

Biggest story of our lifetime so far? I most certainly think not.. it's not even the biggest story currently. Ask those in Syria or Iraq or Yemen or Iran or Libya if covid is the biggest story? Biggest story of our lifetime, just a really bad sentence as it is minuscule in comparison with the really big stories!

 

I appreciate your empathy and global perspective, but by "our" lifetime I meant Americans under 93 (my dad, a WWII vet is still alive) and given American's zero fluency in the affairs of Syria, Yemen, Libya or pretty much any other county, I think my claim is much less of a reach. Few stories are global in the same moment. This is one of them.

 

Of all the dramatic and affecting stories you mention, none of them brought the American economy to a grinding halt, threatened repercussions as serious as the Great Depression, closed our schools, churches, sporting events, and basic human contact, and extended consequences into every home regardless of geography, income level or political affiliation. The nature of a pandemic also delivers a psychological hit you don't get from a conventional human enemy. 

 

We were glued to the TV during 9/11, but free to go anywhere we wanted. Vietnam was a s#!tshow and a nightmare, but as kids we played happily through it and Nebraska won two national championships. 1968 was comparable to 2020, including riots in the street, but you can't deny COVID adds another layer of existential dread. If you want to get more into it, COVID has further fueled an American civil war where patriotism is on public display by your willingness to wear a mask, or not. Frankly, the whole story is likely a drop in the bucket compared to what my kids will face with global climate changes over the next 50 years. 

 

I'm not the first person to make this reach, either. There have been some really good articles about what an American born in 1900 would have lived through, compared to what the post-World War II generation considers deprivation and sacrifice. 

[kansas45]

HILLTOP NOTED: All we know is going by the data that is available.  We can use Nebraska numbers and even go as far as to use ages 20-34.  There have been 8,000 confirmed positive cases in this age bracket to date.  If you use the lowest estimated multiplier, we have had at least 40,000 cases in this age bracket.  To date, 141 of those people have been hospitalized and 4 of them have died.  This gives us a hospitalization rate of .003 and a death rate of .0001.  Even if you don't add the multiplier that the vast majority of experts say is accurate, the hospitalization rate is .017 and the death rate is ,0005.  For this age class, the numbers indicate there is an extremely low likelihood the above scenario would happen.   All of the above is using ages 20-34.  It is widely publicized that people in their early 20s fair much better than people even 10 years older.  The data suggests we are not placing these kids in a risky situation.  College football should be played this fall.

 

But what if one of those hospitalized is a Nebraska football player? I know you have answered this question with your response of "players go to the hospital all the time." I still find that argument specious i.e. superficially plausible, but actually wrong in that if we are sending football players to the hospital someone is going to ask questions. And going to the hospital to have an MRI done is not the same thing as being "hospitalized." And we are not talking about hospitalized for a rotor cuff surgery. We are talking about something that would put you in ICU or in hospital quarantine or on a ventilator. Are you willing to make the phone call to the parents? I wonder what that phone call would be like. 

 

But what if one of those who dies is a Nebraska football player? Impossible you say? Or highly implausible? Which is it? The numbers do not bear it out? It will only take ONE case in my view for the media outrage machine to come out of the wood work. Are you willing to call the family members and tell them the news and say "he knew the risks but wanted to play anyway"? I do wonder how you would word that call. 

 

And your opinion since you are a highly sought after medical expert with a medical degree with specializations in epidemiology and infectious diseases, of:

This guy's a 27-yo professional athlete. "Red Sox pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez confirms he's dealing with heart issue stemming from COVID-19 infection"

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/red-sox-pitcher-eduardo-rodriguez-confirms-hes-dealing-with-heart-issue-stemming-from-covid-19-infection/

Rodriguez's story is a reminder that the calculus for playing sports during the global pandemic is not simple. Rather, there is a spectrum of largely unknown side effects -- such is the nature of a novel virus -- that could have long-term ramifications, especially for professional athletes whose livelihood depends on them performing at their physical peak.

 

Your numbers sir along with your expert clinical opinion. What is your medical advice to the President of the University of Nebraska system?

Edited July 28, 2020 by kansas45
corrected

[Mavric]