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The 2024 Presidential Election- Primary Season


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2 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

Yes, I understand that argument about the power of incumbency.   But this is unlike any other previous election - 2 very elderly guys running.  Both with apparent cognitive issues.    On his record alone - Biden should be trouncing Trump in all polls. Heck, he should be trouncing Haley as well.  But his age/aging issues is overshadowing his accomplishments.   And both guys, are charismatic in their own way.   Of the governors I mentioned, I would say Newsom is the most charismatic.  But I think Beshear and Whitmer specifically would get high marks for governing in both of their states - Beshear in a GOP dominated state and Whitmer is a  state that could be considered somewhat purple - not always solidly blue as Trump took it in 2016 (thanks to Hillary thinking she could take it for granted). 

Newsome is for sure the next D candidate, right?  After this election?  It probably won't be Harris and I really don't think she even has any desire to run.

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15 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Newsome is for sure the next D candidate, right?  After this election?  It probably won't be Harris and I really don't think she even has any desire to run.

Yes, I have no doubt of that.  I think the others will be running for the VP spot.  And I hope Harris is way out of the picture - I have no confidence in her as our Commander in Chief.   He's started his 2028 campaign with that debate with DeSantis - he trounced DeSantis in that debate.  

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1 hour ago, teachercd said:

Newsome is for sure the next D candidate, right?  After this election?  It probably won't be Harris and I really don't think she even has any desire to run.

I'm sure he'll run and likely be the early front runner, but the early front runner is often not the final candidate. Harris not charismatic and shouldn't run unless she is WAY different than she has been as VP.

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4 hours ago, TGHusker said:

I wonder if there is any chance at the convention, that the Dems take a turn - if the polls look bad and Biden hasn't diminished the talk about his mental health and age.   I know the GOP won't move from Trump regardless of the stupidity that he spills out but the Dems aren't caught in a cult mindset.  They can still evaluate who gives them the strongest hand in November.  

Truely, I wish Biden would have played the role of the elder statesman who came in for 4 years, accomplished an economic turn around and then decided to leave on a high note.  He reminds me of a stubborn coach who hangs on for too long and finishes badly.  Bobby Bowden for example.  Tom left at a high point - which I wished he hadn't left then but stayed on 5 more years but Bobby stayed and FSU suffered - but I digress.    There are several good Dem governors who are young and could take on the aging, senile, treasonous, dictator want-to-be Trump 

- Whitmer of Mich, Beshear - Ky,  Pritzker - Ill, beside Newsom who wants it all so badly and doesn't hide it (the one I would not care for but who would be better than Trump).  

 

It's possible, but the electability of all other Democrats is weak. They all suffer from the same systemic disadvantages.

 

It's not like Gavin Newsom or somebody is suddenly going to make moronic voters reconsider the rapist they were poised to vote for. Republican leaning voters aren't suddenly going to snap into reality - they're to far gone to be reached.

 

Just sit back, relax, and take comfort in knowing that the election is going to be decided by a few thousand voters who vote entirely based on if gas rises or falls a few cents in the month prior to election day.

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13 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

 

Just sit back, relax, and take comfort in knowing that the election is going to be decided by a few thousand voters who vote entirely based on if gas rises or falls a few cents in the month prior to election day.

Wait what?!???   Last time you said it was so they could save a few cents on cheese?   

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1 minute ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

It's possible, but the electability of all other Democrats is weak. They all suffer from the same systemic disadvantages.

 

It's not like Gavin Newsom or somebody is suddenly going to make moronic voters reconsider the rapist they were poised to vote for. Republican leading voters aren't suddenly going to snap into reality - they're to far gone to be reached.

 

Just sit back, relax, and take comfort in knowing that the election is going to be decided by a few thousand voters who vote entirely based on if gas rises or falls a few cents in the month prior to election day.

 

Should things get any worse with either the perception of Biden's mental accuity, or the reality of his mental accuity, the DNC would have to do some serious thinking beyond "he's still not as addled and dangerous as Trump." My guess is that if Biden steps aside even semi-willingly, a Newsom, Whitmer, or Buttegieg would more than make up for the loss of incumbency. I don't think they pull the moronic Trump loyalist vote -- nobody would -- but I think there would be more energy and turnout among Democrats and independents with younger candidates who are extremely good extemporaneous speakers. Biden would maintain a role in the campaign and it would actually be sympathetic — it's easier to like Joe when you're not clenching for him to not stumble. 

 

In a narrative where everyone can't believe we're running the same two old men again, the Democrats would have the advantage if they replaced Biden. Maybe a huge sigh of relief. 

 

The trick is explaining why the current Vice-President is not stepping in. Kamala Harris solves nothing. 

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4 hours ago, teachercd said:

Newsome is for sure the next D candidate, right?  After this election?  It probably won't be Harris and I really don't think she even has any desire to run.

 

I could see both AOC and Klobuchar throwing their hats in the ring, both are national names and may want to try for the big chair.  Might be 4-8 years too soon for AOC, but Klobuchar seems like a strong candidate to run. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Pete Buttigieg try again and maybe Josh Shapiro. All that said, it's Newsom's nomination to lose, unless something comes up in the next 4 years.  ie, Harris becomes President and shocks everyone and knocks it out of the park.

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6 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

Republicans ranting about Biden's memory loss while nominating a guy who can't remember who he ran against in the last election, or mixes up the woman he raped with his wife is priceless.


This assumes Republicans care about being hypocrites.

 

They decidedly don’t and haven’t for quite some time.

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51 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

 

As long as we're in conspiracy theory world, it's really no secret that this PAC is funded by wealthy Trump supporters who hope the Kennedy mystique will pull Democrat votes away from Biden. 


I’d place a bet RFK Jr. pulls more anti-Trump Republicans and independents than he does Biden voters.

 

Wasn’t he angling to get on the Libertarian ticket? That strikes me as the exact kind of voter he’d appeal to. Anyone left of center halfway tapped into politics probably abhors him for his anti-vax nonesense and his Russia apologism.

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41 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:


I’d place a bet RFK Jr. pulls more anti-Trump Republicans and independents than he does Biden voters.

 

Wasn’t he angling to get on the Libertarian ticket? That strikes me as the exact kind of voter he’d appeal to. Anyone left of center halfway tapped into politics probably abhors him for his anti-vax nonesense and his Russia apologism.

 

 

The polls aren’t showing this. When he is in the poll, Trump does better with the margin. 

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1 hour ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Should things get any worse with either the perception of Biden's mental accuity, or the reality of his mental accuity, the DNC would have to do some serious thinking beyond "he's still not as addled and dangerous as Trump." My guess is that if Biden steps aside even semi-willingly, a Newsom, Whitmer, or Buttegieg would more than make up for the loss of incumbency. I don't think they pull the moronic Trump loyalist vote -- nobody would -- but I think there would be more energy and turnout among Democrats and independents with younger candidates who are extremely good extemporaneous speakers. Biden would maintain a role in the campaign and it would actually be sympathetic — it's easier to like Joe when you're not clenching for him to not stumble. 

 

In a narrative where everyone can't believe we're running the same two old men again, the Democrats would have the advantage if they replaced Biden. Maybe a huge sigh of relief. 

 

The trick is explaining why the current Vice-President is not stepping in. Kamala Harris solves nothing. 

I agree wt your take 100%.  That is why I asked the question.  The bold and underlined in your post is at the center of my thinking.  Don't even bother trying to change any of the cult voters - it isn't going to happen.  Just provide a motivational reason for younger voters, the marginal Democratic voters and independent voters to turn out for the Democratic ticket.  It is all about turnout - Biden doesn't increase the turnout at this point - too many Dems don't want the old man either.  Just being anti-trump isn't the motivation that is needed..  The younger candidate gives all voters a picture of the future that is more hopeful  - better motivation than just maintaining the status quo or being the anti-trump wall again a potential despot.  

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The DNC must also be honest with itself and the people they keep hitting up for money. They traded on the familiarity and yes, amiable moderation of Joe Biden, in order to avoid Bernie Sanders and beat Donald Trump, knowing they might need to recalculate for 2024. I guess the idea was to groom Kamala to make it seamless. 

 

But that same across-the-aisle centrist got hammered as a socialist, no different than Bernie, and now his age comes knocking as everyone knew it might. The devil's bargain was to beat Trump at any cost in 2020, and figure he would go away as the GOP came to its senses. I did not have money on Republicans doubling down on their own insanity. 

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