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The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election


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19 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

Mr Bone Spurs - the military expert:laughpound

 

This is the place I thought you could make a dent in MAGA: Trump's military avoidance background, his disrespect and misunderstanding of military service, his arrogance about s#!t he knows nothing about, and having incredibly respected military generals and combat veterans calling him a f#&%ing idiot.

 

But it's still not taking. 

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23 hours ago, commando said:

grandpa has had to much cough syrup again

 

 

The newest culture war battles is over electric vehicles. While it's funny that MAGA complains about gas prices while waging a culture war on the cheaper, better alternative - Trump going on a nonsensical rant over them is pretty on brand to his base.

 

MAGA voters have the monkey with cymbals for brains. So when they hear "electric vehicle bad" the monkey screeches and banks the cymbals together. The narrative of the rant doesn't really matter.

 

It's increasingly sad that Trump's chances of winning are bordering on a slam dunk. I just hope he genuinely delivers all the "policy" he advocates for. His supporters deserve it.

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14 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

This is the place I thought you could make a dent in MAGA: Trump's military avoidance background, his disrespect and misunderstanding of military service, his arrogance about s#!t he knows nothing about, and having incredibly respected military generals and combat veterans calling him a f#&%ing idiot.

 

But it's still not taking. 

I somewhat agree with you here that there are enough stories out there (believable or not) to make a dent in any military support for Trump.  
 

The military avoidance not so much because Biden took 5 deferments himself.   
 

I would tend to believe anything Trump is claimed to have said about McCain.  Those two hated each other, to each’s detriment.   Trump trashes McCains military service and McCain is pretty much responsible for getting the sham Steele Dossier into the DOJ investigative units.  
 

I do, however, wonder if the support Trump gets from the rank and file Military Personnel, active and retired, comes from a good many of those people also think their Generals are incompetent boobs, sometimes for good reason, so they have a President who thinks like they do.   Just a thought there.  

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1 hour ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

The newest culture war battles is over electric vehicles. While it's funny that MAGA complains about gas prices while waging a culture war on the cheaper, better alternative - Trump going on a nonsensical rant over them is pretty on brand to his base.

 

MAGA voters have the monkey with cymbals for brains. So when they hear "electric vehicle bad" the monkey screeches and banks the cymbals together. The narrative of the rant doesn't really matter.

 

It's increasingly sad that Trump's chances of winning are bordering on a slam dunk. I just hope he genuinely delivers all the "policy" he advocates for. His supporters deserve it.

I am around 2 big Trump guys.  Both own electric cars and love them.  I don't hate the thought of them,  just that the infrasctructure isn't ready for them yet.

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44 minutes ago, nic said:

The truth is somewhere in the middle. 

 

Black voters (and Hispanic voters) are substantially more conservative than the white, college educated voters that make up the majority of the Democratic Party. The issue that Democratic candidates face is that their coalition is loose, and no candidate can satisfy the entire coalitions desires in a candidate.

 

IF those numbers are accurate, Democrats are going to lose in November so badly that they will likely have to reshape their politics. Because the party is trending to appeal towards college educated voters, they risk losing key constituents in their minority voters.

 

My best guess is that the numbers, like most of Biden's polling, is somewhat pessimistic. I believe that Biden is probably losing steam amongst all of his voting coalition - which is why he's going to lose in November - but it's probably not as bad as current polling makes it out. IF it is as bad as polling makes it out, Biden is going to lose in historic proportions - like I don't think I can describe the numbers if his support drops 17% among black voters. 


TL DR: This election is Joever. But it could be catastrophic.

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29 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

The truth is somewhere in the middle. 

 

Black voters (and Hispanic voters) are substantially more conservative than the white, college educated voters that make up the majority of the Democratic Party. The issue that Democratic candidates face is that their coalition is loose, and no candidate can satisfy the entire coalitions desires in a candidate.

 

IF those numbers are accurate, Democrats are going to lose in November so badly that they will likely have to reshape their politics. Because the party is trending to appeal towards college educated voters, they risk losing key constituents in their minority voters.

 

My best guess is that the numbers, like most of Biden's polling, is somewhat pessimistic. I believe that Biden is probably losing steam amongst all of his voting coalition - which is why he's going to lose in November - but it's probably not as bad as current polling makes it out. IF it is as bad as polling makes it out, Biden is going to lose in historic proportions - like I don't think I can describe the numbers if his support drops 17% among black voters. 


TL DR: This election is Joever. But it could be catastrophic.



What do you think the Democrats need to change? 

I think people are easily swayed by personalities, which is pretty sad. But it should have been easy to pick someone better than Biden.

If I had to pick one thing as a guess that would help in general, unrelated to having a good candidate, it would be to focus on the suburbs. And that would probably hurt them more with minorities voters and young voters.

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2 minutes ago, Moiraine said:



What do you think the Democrats need to change? 

I think people are easily swayed by personalities, which is pretty sad. But it should have been easy to pick someone better than Biden.

If I had to pick one thing as a guess that would help in general, unrelated to having a good candidate, it would be to focus on the suburbs. And that would probably hurt them more with minorities voters and young voters.

I think Democrats would be better served to do a few things. #1, stop trying to focus on policy on winning over voters. Voters don't care about what you actually accomplish; they need to meet Republicans where it counts, which is media. They need to do a better job at spreading and controlling how people consume their news, which is via tik tok, Facebook memes, or soundbites from news dedicated to their messaging. Right now, Republicans dominate this space which is why the majority of the electorate currently believes the country exists in a different reality. Having the longest streak of sub-4% employment in a lifetime doesn't mean anything if a viral tik tok of a worker not finding a job is what the median American voter sees, they truly believe that is happening en masse.

 

Second, they need to get rid of toxic culture war messaging that appeals to their base of college educated voters. Any mention of "trans rights", for example, should be launched into the sun never to be heard from again. Now, I hope that Democrats legislate in ways that help these people, but they simply need to not talk about it because it's deeply unpopular. The same is true for issues I care about, like climate change, for example.

 

Lastly, they need to become more conservative on Immigration. Biden is attempting to do this but chances are, it'll take years for the public to recognize that Democrats have taken a more hawkish stance on this issue. In fact, they may always associate Democrats with "open borders", but Democrats have to at least try to battle Republicans on this message. 

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

I think Democrats would be better served to do a few things. #1, stop trying to focus on policy on winning over voters. Voters don't care about what you actually accomplish; they need to meet Republicans where it counts, which is media. They need to do a better job at spreading and controlling how people consume their news, which is via tik tok, Facebook memes, or soundbites from news dedicated to their messaging. Right now, Republicans dominate this space which is why the majority of the electorate currently believes the country exists in a different reality. Having the longest streak of sub-4% employment in a lifetime doesn't mean anything if a viral tik tok of a worker not finding a job is what the median American voter sees, they truly believe that is happening en masse.

 

Second, they need to get rid of toxic culture war messaging that appeals to their base of college educated voters. Any mention of "trans rights", for example, should be launched into the sun never to be heard from again. Now, I hope that Democrats legislate in ways that help these people, but they simply need to not talk about it because it's deeply unpopular. The same is true for issues I care about, like climate change, for example.

 

Lastly, they need to become more conservative on Immigration. Biden is attempting to do this but chances are, it'll take years for the public to recognize that Democrats have taken a more hawkish stance on this issue. In fact, they may always associate Democrats with "open borders", but Democrats have to at least try to battle Republicans on this message. 

A lot of good stuff here.  Maybe they should hire you.  

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4 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

I somewhat agree with you here that there are enough stories out there (believable or not) to make a dent in any military support for Trump.  
 

The military avoidance not so much because Biden took 5 deferments himself.   
 

I would tend to believe anything Trump is claimed to have said about McCain.  Those two hated each other, to each’s detriment.   Trump trashes McCains military service and McCain is pretty much responsible for getting the sham Steele Dossier into the DOJ investigative units.  
 

I do, however, wonder if the support Trump gets from the rank and file Military Personnel, active and retired, comes from a good many of those people also think their Generals are incompetent boobs, sometimes for good reason, so they have a President who thinks like they do.   Just a thought there.  

 

Hard to say. Active military broke for both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, while military veterans leaned about 60% for Trump in both elections. Maybe more of an age demographic than the presumption of one party being more patriotic or supportive of the military. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

I think Democrats would be better served to do a few things. #1, stop trying to focus on policy on winning over voters. Voters don't care about what you actually accomplish; they need to meet Republicans where it counts, which is media. They need to do a better job at spreading and controlling how people consume their news, which is via tik tok, Facebook memes, or soundbites from news dedicated to their messaging. Right now, Republicans dominate this space which is why the majority of the electorate currently believes the country exists in a different reality. Having the longest streak of sub-4% employment in a lifetime doesn't mean anything if a viral tik tok of a worker not finding a job is what the median American voter sees, they truly believe that is happening en masse.

 

Second, they need to get rid of toxic culture war messaging that appeals to their base of college educated voters. Any mention of "trans rights", for example, should be launched into the sun never to be heard from again. Now, I hope that Democrats legislate in ways that help these people, but they simply need to not talk about it because it's deeply unpopular. The same is true for issues I care about, like climate change, for example.

 

Lastly, they need to become more conservative on Immigration. Biden is attempting to do this but chances are, it'll take years for the public to recognize that Democrats have taken a more hawkish stance on this issue. In fact, they may always associate Democrats with "open borders", but Democrats have to at least try to battle Republicans on this message. 

 

They need to do everything at the same time. They need better and more aggressive messaging that plays to our most base emotions, and back it up with the hard core facts they have on their side. They need to think of every independent or swing voter and how they would describe their decision to vote Democrat to a fellow swing voter. It's a one sentence pitch. If it's 98% fear of Trump in most cases, so be it.

 

Actually, Democrats and liberals have an excellent social media game, as any tour of X or Facebook or Tik Tok will tell you. Not sure where you see Republicans with the advantage there, although the Tik Tok algorithm gets real toxic quick with bro culture content. These are mostly volunteer and ancillary culture warriors on both sides -- neither the DNC or RNC is running that game well. 

 

Also, double and triple down on state and local elections. Even the small ones. If Biden's faltering age decides the Presidential election, you'll need a slate of new and livelier candidates across the board to keep the party alive while the GOP follows Donald Trump off the cliff. 

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Just now, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

They need to do everything at the same time. They need better and more aggressive messaging that plays to our most base emotions, and back it up with the hard core facts they have on their side. They need to think of every independent or swing voter and how they would describe their decision to vote Democrat to a fellow swing voter. It's a one sentence pitch. If it's 98% fear of Trump in most cases, so be it.

 

Actually, Democrats and liberals have an excellent social media game, as any tour of X or Facebook or Tik Tok will tell you. Not sure where you see Republicans with the advantage there, although the Tik Tok algorithm gets real toxic quick with bro culture content. These are mostly volunteer and ancillary culture warriors on both sides -- neither the DNC or RNC is running that game well. 

Yep!  Social media is dominated by D's and Liberals and it is not even close.  What happens is that D's and Liberals OBSESS over what non-D's and Non-Liberals are posting so they constantly post on opposing view points (The Howard Stern Effect, people that hate him listen longer to see what he will say next)

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19 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

Also, double and triple down on state and local elections

This has been the place Republicans have fared well since the Obama years, mainly because a focus was put on it.   You give good advice here for Democrats.  

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