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The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election


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Just now, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

No. You simply have a coaching staff who thinks you stand a better chance of winning the game with Haarberg than Sims, which proved to be true. Same coaches recruited Jeff Sims and installed him as their starter. Then had to admit it wasn't working out. 

 

In this case Donald Trump is Purdue, a flawed loser you really should be able to beat.

Points for comparing Trump to Purdue!  Hahaha!  Purdue FB fans are so lame, they are literally happy with some of the worst seasons ever.  

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1 hour ago, teachercd said:

I don't...but I do remember the media not uniting behind Bo and doing all the could to get him canned...and it worked

 

Examples?

 

 

 

56 minutes ago, knapplc said:

Ever notice how these people don't have an alternative?

 

They're all, "Biden should step down," but they don't tell us who will beat the felon. Because they don't know. They're just panicking, publicly.

 

 

They're rightfully panicking because it's a terrifying and awful scenario. If I'm in a helicopter, me not knowing how to pilot a helicopter doesn't dismiss or discount my abject horror when I look and see that the pilot has just gone into a coma. 

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4 minutes ago, Lorewarn said:

 

Examples?

 

 

 

 

 

They're rightfully panicking because it's a terrifying and awful scenario. If I'm in a helicopter, me not knowing how to pilot a helicopter doesn't dismiss or discount my abject horror when I look and see that the pilot has just gone into a coma. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/11/30/bo-pelini-fired-after-7-seasons-with-cornhuskers/19698709/

 

There you go.  The example of Bo getting fired from NU.

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44 minutes ago, Lorewarn said:

They're rightfully panicking because it's a terrifying and awful scenario. If I'm in a helicopter, me not knowing how to pilot a helicopter doesn't dismiss or discount my abject horror when I look and see that the pilot has just gone into a coma. 

 

Then vote for Biden in November. Worst case scenario he'll be unable to complete the next four years, Harris will take over, and we'll still have a democracy. Things working the way they're supposed to.

 

Or run around with your hair on fire, split the non-convict vote so the convict wins, and you lose your democracy.

 

It's an easy choice.

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1 hour ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Well actually they do have an alternative. It's Kamala Harris, who doesn't excite me but immediately polls a couple points better than Joe.  There are some other interesting possibilities if they want to open up the convention. Surely you can understand why most will feign to back Joe publicly and decline to name a personal favorite to replace him. Most of the panic is going on privately.

 

Here's somebody who says it better and funnier than I do. He's a former Obama speechwriter, EPA employee and Last Week Tonight writer who excels in well-informed candor. Let me know if you disagree with anything he says here:

 

Republicans Want Biden To Run -- Shouldn't That Tell Us Everything?

This is much simpler than Democrats are making it seem

JUL 10
 
 
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Built from a photo by Gage Skidmore.
     

Democrats are trying themselves in knots trying to figure out their best play. Should they back Biden, or should they make an all-out push for a new nominee? If Biden is replaced, then with whom? And after what process? Lawmakers are treating this like three-dimensional chess: They’re being strategic and trying to “see the whole board” — as President Bartlett told them to do — with each new poll and Biden appearance providing fresh information that will help them deftly suss out an optimal strategy.

 

Personally, I don’t think that the situation is three-dimensional chess. I think it’s a lever on a wall that looks like this:

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What would I do? Well — noting that the lever is currently set to “lose” — I’d throw the lever to the “maybe don’t lose” position. That’s just me. I don’t think this is the irreducibly complex riddle that many Democrats are making it out to be. If you want a tour through the Hall Of Nightmares that is Biden’s polling data, I’ll provide that in a bit, but the fundamental problem is that the president’s brain is leaking oil and making a very loud thunking noise. The idea that he can serve another four years is obviously absurd. And while Democrats hem and haw in an anguished attempt to divine their optimal strategy, the Republicans know exactly what they want: They want Biden to run so that they can kick his wrinkled old a$$. There is no debate happening on the Republican side, and that seems notable.

 

Trump has been disciplined as Democrats self-immolate — doesn’t that frighten the hell out of you? It’s like watching the Hal 9000 gain sentience — this is a development that humanity might not be prepared for. Trump hasn’t altered the news cycle by, say, calling Dolly Parton the c-word or by publicly admiring how much tail Muammar Gaddafi got, which is the type of s#!t he normally does. He’s even delayed his VP pick so as to avoid changing the subject. And sure, Trump is still ranting like a loon on Truth Social, but Truth Social is a void built to absorb Trump’s deranged thoughts and deliver them to nothingness. Someone has convinced Trump that he should just do nothing, and for the first time in his life, Trump is resisting the urge to make everything about himself.

 

Republican strategists clearly want Biden on the ticket. Both the New York Times and The Washington Post report that Trump advisers are — to use a term of art — jizzing their pants over the prospect of Biden staying in the race. RNC Co-chair Lara Trump said Democrats can’t replace Biden — it would “[go] against the democratic process,” said the stalwart champion of democracy. The Heritage Foundation has started an effort to keep Biden on the ballot in crucial swing states, which could effectively lock him in as the nominee. The messaging from Biden and far-right groups is identical: “It’s too late, Biden is the nominee, changing nominees would sow chaos, there’s nothing to do but accept Biden.” And if you think it’s strange that the White House and the authors of Project 2025 are singing from the same hymnal, then I agree: It is strange, and it tells us something.

 

The Republican rank and file have also figured it out. After the debate, there was a significant uptick in the percentage of Republicans who want Biden to remain the nominee. That probably wasn’t because they responded favorably to Bidens message of “Look, this guy, (mumble), I was…we had 17 — I’m sorry 20 million…f#&% Medicare.” Even Fox News has begun cynically championing Biden’s vitality and fitness for office — this is on their homepage as I write this:

  https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.ama  

Look at that photo! It’s standard Fox News policy for any picture of a Democrat to be a picture of that person either on the toilet or choking on a sandwich, and preferably both. But right now, they’re using a glowing picture of Biden that you’d expect to find on a site called ProgressNews.Resistance/StopFascism. Again: Might Fox News’ sudden support tell us something about Biden’s prospects?

 

Republicans can read polls, and they’re not engaged in the type of Poll Trutherism that’s taken over the Biden camp. Most polls have Biden down by a couple points, but the situation is more dire than it seems. For starters, Biden has to win by about two points to have a 50/50 shot at the Electoral College. From Nate Silver:

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Biden has suddenly started arguing that polls are inaccurate, and of course, there’s a grain of truth to that: Polls are an imperfect metric. But to the extent that polls have been off in recent years, they’ve actually underestimated Trump’s support. So, noting that polls have been wrong in the past should lead us to also note that, if anything, Trump’s lead is probably bigger than what polls show. If you believe that Trump has an electoral college advantage — which he almost indisputably does — and also believe that he has a bit of support that isn’t captured in the polls — which recent history would suggest — then a three point Biden deficit looks more like an eight or nine point Biden deficit. Which would be an enormous gap even for a candidate who won’t have to spend the entire campaign reading from a script in the few events he can squeeze in before beddy-bye time.

 

You can see the size of Biden’s problems by comparing him to Democrats running for House and Senate. In poll after poll, Biden does significantly worse than the local congressional candidate. New polling came out on Tuesday that showed Biden getting clobbered in must-win Wisconsin: He’s losing to Trump by five even while Democrat Tammy Baldwin is winning her Senate race by five. So, Biden is about a ten-point drag on the ticket. Which is probably why people like David Axelrod, James Carville, and Jon Favreau — who, no matter what you think of them, know how to read polls — are practically screaming themselves hoarse trying to get people to realize that Biden is leading the party to disaster. And yet, Congressional Democrats continue to stroke their chins, smoke a pipe, and ponder their next move, seemingly ignorant to the fact that they’re in a flaming plane with no wings that’s plummeting towards Earth at 500 feet per second.

 

I’ve been saying it since the day after the debate: This math is not actually hard. We are over-using modifiers — we’re saying things like “Democrats might have a better shot with a better candidate,” which is true in the same way that the sentence “a restaurant serving Mexican food might do better than restaurant serving carriage bolts covered in ants” is true. We’re causing the inherent unknowability of future events to obfuscate the existence of something that’s about as predictable as anything ever gets. And though some Democrats don’t seem to understand this, maybe they can be snapped out of their complacency by noticing that Republicans are not having any trouble understanding it at all.

 

 

 

All these analogies are self-serving nonsense. The two times the Democrats had no clear candidate this late in the process, 1968 & 1972, they got absolutely demolished.

 

Bailing on Biden now guarantees the felon wins. We've seen it happen within two generations.

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1 minute ago, knapplc said:

 

 

 

All these analogies are self-serving nonsense. The two times the Democrats had no clear candidate this late in the process, 1968 & 1972, they got absolutely demolished.

 

Bailing on Biden now guarantees the felon wins. We've seen it happen within two generations.

I still can't understand why this is so hard for people to understand.  

 

 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Then vote for Biden in November. Worst case scenario he'll be unable to complete the next four years, Harris will take over, and we'll still have a democracy. Things working the way they're supposed to.

 

Or run around with your hair on fire, split the non-convict vote so the convict wins, and you lose your democracy.

 

It's an easy choice.

 

 

I will be voting for Biden. I am also rightfully very concerned post debate, because the worst case scenario isn't Harris taking over; it's that Trump is going to win. The DNC has put itself, and America, in what looks like an absolutely no-win scenario where Biden likely has no chance and nobody else really does either.

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4 minutes ago, Lorewarn said:

I will be voting for Biden. I am also rightfully very concerned post debate, because the worst case scenario isn't Harris taking over; it's that Trump is going to win. The DNC has put itself, and America, in what looks like an absolutely no-win scenario where Biden likely has no chance and nobody else really does either.

 

Did things really change that much because of the debate? Didn't we all do the math when we elected Biden in 2020, and knew he'd be this age in 2024?

 

Old people do old people things. Acting like we've just discovered something new about Biden is odd to me.

 

The press freaking out like they are and people asking him to step down are even worse. George Clooney just raised millions of dollars for Biden, and today wrote an op/ed asking him not to run.

 

We chose this path in 2020. I'm not going to get upset now when I knew this was going to happen back then.

 

Of course, I also thought the current head of the Republican party was likely either going to be dead from choking on a late-night cheeseburger, or so mired in trials that he wouldn't be able to run this time.

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31 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Did things really change that much because of the debate? Didn't we all do the math when we elected Biden in 2020, and knew he'd be this age in 2024?

 

Old people do old people things. Acting like we've just discovered something new about Biden is odd to me.

 

The press freaking out like they are and people asking him to step down are even worse. George Clooney just raised millions of dollars for Biden, and today wrote an op/ed asking him not to run.

 

We chose this path in 2020. I'm not going to get upset now when I knew this was going to happen back then.

 

Of course, I also thought the current head of the Republican party was likely either going to be dead from choking on a late-night cheeseburger, or so mired in trials that he wouldn't be able to run this time.

 

 

Respectfully, I don't think you're understanding my position or the position of others properly.

 

Of course things changed that much because of the debate; look around us. Again, the panic isn't panic that Joe is an unqualified candidate for the office. He's got a competent qualified cabinet and clear platform that has resulted in good progress for America, and that would likely continue if he's president from '24-28.

 

The panic is that this new level of clarity and awareness about his decline is sobering us to the reality that he's going to lose. 

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1 hour ago, knapplc said:

 

 

 

All these analogies are self-serving nonsense. The two times the Democrats had no clear candidate this late in the process, 1968 & 1972, they got absolutely demolished.

 

Bailing on Biden now guarantees the felon wins. We've seen it happen within two generations.

 

The analogies are a bit of fun in an ugly scenario, but the observations and logic are rock solid, delivered by someone who knows all the history you do, and then some. 

 

There really is no precedent for what's happening right now, just as there's no precedent for Donald Trump. 

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The absolute worst case scenario is if Trump wins. 
 

The next scenario is Biden winning. The worst case scenario if that happens is if someone else has to take over and that would be Harris. 
 

Still, the worst case scenario is if Trump wins. 

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1 hour ago, knapplc said:

 

Then vote for Biden in November. Worst case scenario he'll be unable to complete the next four years, Harris will take over, and we'll still have a democracy. Things working the way they're supposed to.

 

Or run around with your hair on fire, split the non-convict vote so the convict wins, and you lose your democracy.

 

It's an easy choice.

 

Everyone who fears Trump will vote for Biden. That's the given. It's also the same Anyone- But-Trump vote that a replacement candidate starts with. 

 

It's an easy choice if Joe Biden refuses to step aside. We vote for Joe. If there is a chance he would step aside and heartily endorse his replacement --- the scenario we were sold when we voted Biden in 2020 -- that's the better choice. Characterizing the people who'd prefer option B as "running around with their hair on fire" actually ignores the stakes and the realities.

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